Best 16-18 year old players ever

Discussion in 'The Beautiful Game' started by schwuppe, Jun 23, 2017.

  1. schwuppe

    schwuppe Member+

    Sep 17, 2009
    Club:
    FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
    With all the news about teams wanting to sign Kylian Mbappe for 120 million or similar sums the question I asked myself was "Does it make sense to spent that much on someone so young based on 6 months?"

    I thought about historical comparables, players who were not just talented, but actually able to be productive (that one is important. Mpabbe has about 1 goal per 90 minutes in the CL and French league) on a high level in their 17/18 year old season or earlier.

    The list of names I could find is very, very short and some players I thought about initially were still hardly playing on a senior level at that age. I think it makes quite a difference if the player is 18/19 or 19/20 instead - lots of development in those years.

    The real surprising revelation is that it seems like a reliable indicator that if a player has the ability to perform at an age were most are still just prospects/developing there is a very high chance he'll become an absolute top tier alltime great. Or maybe there are just many who were forgotten because they turned out mediocre.....


    Pele
    Diego Maradona
    Ronaldo

    I don't have to elobarate on any of them. The best three I could think of by far. Actually Pele might even belong in a seperate as he did it at the World Cup.

    Now the other's I found

    Javier Saviola: South American Player of the Year, underwhelming career overall in my opinion

    Gianni Rivera: Was a starter for Milan who finished 2nd in Serie A. It's hard to tell how good he really was in that season. For a striker you could take a guess by looking at his goals, but Rivera obviously wasn't one.
    Still 3rd most on his team.

    Teofilo Cubillas: Top scorer in the Peruvian league as a 16 year old. Competitiveness is questionable, but I still found it interesting and worth a mention.

    Giuseppe Meazza: Played his first season for Inter and was 3rd best goalscorer on his team. Was league top scorer a year later though.

    Honorable mentions: Recently Rooney and Fabregas played their first season at that age, but they didn't produce any impressive feats if I remember correctly.


    Is there someone obvious I'm missing here?
     
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  2. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    Enzo Scifo and Michael Owen always come to mind for me with this kind of topic.

    Hard to gauge but Cruyff and Beckenbauer may have been showing big potential (not in the same way as Pele ofc). Cruyff didn't play that much in his 17/18 season it seems but was 18 years old for most of 65/66 too.
     
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  3. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Mbappe has only played for half a year but there's upwards potential. Given the competitions he has played in and that France isn't the world champion or so (or that he replaces the primary goalscorer and performs worse than him)

    Switching off nostalgia, modernity bias, league bias, the bandwagon megaphones:

    1) Pelé

    2A) Ronaldo
    2B) Mbappe (in potential, extrapolating)

    3A) Maradona
    3B) Rivera
    3C) Owen
    3D) Thon
    3E) Scifo
    etc. That list needs more thought. Not of Rivera level but Seedorf was also pretty amazing between age 16 to 18. Before 20 he had 5 open play goals in 11 national team games (scored in 5 different games too).

    The 'relative age effect' is pretty important and very significant at this stage of someone's career (under 21).
     
  4. schwuppe

    schwuppe Member+

    Sep 17, 2009
    Club:
    FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
    Jimmy Greaves scored 22 goals in 35 games as a 17 year old.
    Ference Puskas scored 35 in 33 games in a notoriously high scoring Hungarian League 45/46. It was "only" good enough for 6th best scorer.
     
  5. schwuppe

    schwuppe Member+

    Sep 17, 2009
    Club:
    FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
    Maldini was a starter for Milan, although they were mediocre that year.
    Buffon and Baresi took a year longer, but finished 2nd and 1st in the league respectively.
     
  6. schwuppe

    schwuppe Member+

    Sep 17, 2009
    Club:
    FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
    I thought about Scifo, didn't know about Thon. Good call.
     
  7. schwuppe

    schwuppe Member+

    Sep 17, 2009
    Club:
    FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
    All this reminds be how mindblowing Pele's feat was.
    Imagine we would see some rather unknown (not really possible due to scouting compared to the 50s. Or am I wrong here and Europeans actually knew about him before the Cup?) 17 year old ending top goalscorer of the world champion 2018.
     
    celito repped this.
  8. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    If we just take his own 'Pelé albums' as the most authoritative and most complete collection of sources, then no, by and large they didn't know him. This is also because he was pretty raw, in the eyes of the Brazilians themselves. A few years later (around 1961) he would emerge as the complete forward player with one of the finest technique (if not the finest) of his generation. I posted some of those articles previously, and manager Feola didn't hold Pelé's technique (and consistency of this) in the highest regard. Pelé developed his overall game and skillset tremendously between 1958 and 1961 really.


    For such thing to happen obviously some things need to go in a favorable way (which was clearly the case in 1958; Jonquet's injury, England air disaster, Streltsov and co in prison, John Charles injury, also in how Sweden's home advantage got muted down etc. - some small margins that got added up) and as said the relative age effect is very important. Not just in football but other sports too. For ex. Earvin 'Magic' Johnson aged 19/20 (born 14 August), Michael Jordan aged 20 (born 17 February, thus markedly later within his own cohort). This are only two superficial and haphazard examples but take a large sample and this pattern emerges across all sports.
     
  9. schwuppe

    schwuppe Member+

    Sep 17, 2009
    Club:
    FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
    In general some things "need to go in a favorable way" if you want to win the world cup.
    So you are right, but we can play this game for pretty much every trophy winner.
     
  10. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Yes, very arguably so when the margins are fine and the stakes/interests are high, but this is still a matter of degree.

    Say, Mbappe winning this years Champions League and scoring a couple of goals. Wasn't entirely impossible.
     
  11. schwuppe

    schwuppe Member+

    Sep 17, 2009
    Club:
    FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
    Not entriely impossible, but Monaco looked out of their depth against Juventus already.
     
  12. Once

    Once Member+

    Apr 16, 2011
    Very unlikely. Then again, that did not happen in 1958 either. And then there was Pele, the guy a lot of people will consider the best teen player ever, and he was playing for the best team (albeit he did not play the first two games), and some things went Brazil's way as PvH listed.. If it was ever gonna happen, it was then. And it didnt.
     
  13. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Mbappe is so so overhyped atm. I am not even that impressed by anything he has done by now. Only difference now is that every thing is eventually seen because of internet and media hugely benefits from making stories like that. Although everybody dislike when someone is called new Messi, new Cristiano, new Henry, but it is the fact that those are the most popular articles. Btw, don't you guys see the pattern already, last first half season Martial was the god, Owen said he has never seen as talented 19 year old as Martial, next half season it was Rashford who was destined for big things, on Euro it was Renato Sanches, etc... last 5 months it is Mbappe who is once in a generation type of players. It's all media hyping players to sell stories.
    He might slowly disappear next season and nobody will notice it because some other kid would be the new best thing..

    And you guy who put Mbappe in the same context as R9, are you serious about that? Mbappe goal tally is not even close to the one of R9 at the same age. Let alone other skills.

    And yes you are missing obvious ones. Neymar, Messi. First few that popped in my mind and it's not questionable at all.
    You can argue Bojan, Kluivert, Odegaard (yes, i said it), Ortega perhapse?,..
     
  14. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Mbappe looks like the real deal to me. I think at the very least he will be a really good player. I was never impressed by any of the other players you mentioned .... Rashford, Martial, and yeah ...when people were talking up Sanches and I saw him in the Euros, I wasn't really that impressed.
     
  15. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Why would you be impressed by Mbappe then?

    Scored few goals in ucl and French league, by the way, to demonstrate how tough French league is take a look at the list of top scorers this season:
    -Cavani scored 35 goals, heeey, Cavani, the guy that misses one sitter per game on average.
    -Lacazette scored 28 and he is about to fail in Prem, just watch.
    -Falcao 21 goals, the old guy that hasn't been great for years managed to reestablish his form in that league.
    -Gomis 20 goals, they guy who couldn't get to 10 goals tally in a single prem season as a Swansea's talisman, bangs goals for fun in French league
    -Balotelli 15 goals, he is actually good when he wants to be good, but still far from his best and scores for fun (had only 23 apps in league this season)
    -Santini 15 goals, the guy who will never ever make significant appearence in Croatian team scored as much as Mbappe.

    And then there is Mbappe, scored 15 goals in 27 apps this season in this joke of the league, while being the part of argaubly top 3 offenses this season in Monaco. Atm, the guy is on the level of Gomis and Balotelli (even that's debateable) and someone actually dares to compare him to what R9 was doing back in the days hahahaha. It's funny how influential medias actually are.
    He was in good form for literally 5 months and people compare him with the greatest players of all time. (And that form is not even that good when you take in consideration all the things i said above)
    First let him prove that he can keep his form going, let alone proving that he can keep improving his game month in month out.

    I am not hating, i am geniuely disappointed with football fans, that's all. Mbappe might become great in future, but he hasn't done anything special at this point.
     
  16. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    I am just impressed by his set of skills at his age. Messi for example didn't have to score 30 goals for me to think he was something special. It's not only about raw numbers at this age.
     
  17. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Messi was toying around with likes of Vieira, Camoranesi, Cannavaro, Roberto Carlos, at the age of 17, 18, not French league stoppers and he barely showed any skills in UCL. His performance in UCL is magnified by quantity of goals he scored, not by performances. It's not the same, not even close.
    There are more exciting talents in the world.
     
  18. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil

    Messi is Messi , no doubt about that . Not comparing him to Fenômeno , but his start was in the regional league of Minas Gerais. His first European league was the Dutch which wasn't all that. Even the Spanish league was not what it was today if we are going to be honest .
     
  19. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Mbappe is now 18 years and 6 months. So compare him with the guys at that same age. Not with someone in some games who was almost 20.

    He didn't do in pre-season Harlem Globetrotters games, didn't do it for an established world champion or established champions league winner etc. For such young player there are many things going for him. The French league is known as a defensive and physical one, with often low goals per game. Strikers who failed elsewhere can be seen at the Spanish (at large volumes) and Italian leagues too.

    He isn't the most technically well rounded now, but that can improve. As it actually did with all so called teenage wonders that turned out to be a success.
     
    celito repped this.
  20. wm442433

    wm442433 Member+

    Sep 19, 2014
    Club:
    FC Nantes
    #20 wm442433, Jul 3, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
    Bolded part : right but it was changing during the last season though. It was more offensive. The influence of quality foreign coaches like Favre at Nice, finally quite a new generation of French coaches like Gourvennec who play the attack, Jardim with his talented young generation of attackers but also at the ful-back positions + a quality Fabinho at midfield, PSG because they have the players to make some good things et all., a team like Dijon played a very interesting football too).
    Not sure if this tendency will be confirmed next year though. There was also the miracle Sergio Conceiçao at FC Nantes but he already left the club. To Porto.
    Not sure if it will continue on this line because if some old coaches have disappeared, some good players will once again leave the League during the summer. And another old coach takes the spot on the bench at Nantes for example : Ranieri. Not sure if he will be able to make the Nantes squad (which is of very average quality) to play as well as Conceiçao did or if he will make it more "Italian style''. Maybe that the teams will fear each other more than during the past season too and calculate more. It was a bit crazy all in all the 2016-2017 season.
    But hopefully it will continue a bit like that. Maybe that France starts to lack real good defenders too, his turn. Or this new tendency about attacking a bit more than before (finally, it was time, because it was boring) also results in problems of balance (that can be solve only with a few more time for the teams). On the other hand again, there will be less good strikers as Lacazette is already gone, M'bappe should also do and maybe sooner than later and that there are no quality strikers like that who pops out every year.

    All of that to say that this 2016-2017 season was... different. Was a good stuff for the show. Of course it would be preferable to continue on this way and improve it rather than going back to the old habits. France is late on Spain and Germany. Continued in the 98 fashion (defense, physical impact before all) for too long.

    In spite of this, if M'bappe scored goals after goals during these 6 months, it's of course because of his talent (and of the offensive quality of his team). If Monaco was not at the level of the event of the CL semis nor at the level of the Juve team, individually he still manage to cause some problems to the Italian defense (so the sincere congratulations of a Chiellini at the end of the match, who was literally amazed by the young striker performance).
    Mbappe can score in any league in Europe. But if he joins Real, I don't see exactly where he will play in attack. He'll still scores goals but it can be a problem though. Right winger? It would be a waste. Some say that he can succed anywhere but if he plays the right wingers for too long (in the eventuality of a transfer to Real in the weeks to come) personally, I fear that he lost "the fluid". He's a player who, due to his talent(s), must play in the axis in my opinion. Like a Henry finally did at Arsenal (so for the better).

    Frankly I'm more pessimistic than anything else about his immediate future at a sportive point of view but hopefully everything will happened well with him.

    I see him more in a team like Dortmund to begin with. Or just staying at Monaco one more year. But it seems difficult. Of course this summer market will be very important concerning the evolution of his career. But Henry had problems at Juve then succeeded at Arsenal so...

    On his technical abilities I don't think he has much to improve. Even tactically. it's all about the gestion of his career now. And about to avoid injuries.

    (I was not only reacting to the post that I have quoted but also to other previous posts of course so I could talk a bit about everything that I wanted on the matter)

    Ah and as for his performances for the national team, again, it will depend much on what he exactly does in club and of... Deschamps too. But it is another question and the World Cup is still quite far (a long season) and France is not even sure to qualify.
     
  21. poetgooner

    poetgooner Member+

    Arsenal
    Nov 20, 2014
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Don't say that :cry:
     
  22. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    #22 Sexy Beast, Jul 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2017
    Gomis, Balotelli, Falcao, Cavani.. all players that have failed to reach their expectations are topping the list, how that can be seen in other leagues? In which one exactly? Tell me. You are talking nonsense.

    Ibra in 2016 season in French league: 31 games, 38 goals
    Ibra in 2017 season in Premier league: 28 games, 17 goals

    Ibra in 9 seasons during his spells in Italian teams: 122 league goals
    In 4 season in PSG (battling with injuries): 113 league goals

    Few quick facts to tell you about what kind of league we are talking. Should i continue?

    You trying to justify quality of French league tells me enough that it's not worth talking to you.
    "Defensive and physical" Hahah good one. The superleague Greece is also defensive minded league, it's still shit compared to the best leagues.

    Dembele is more talented, Odegaard is more talented, Tielemans is more talented, etc.. all of them are the same age.

    But what exactly he has done agaisnt established world champions? Scored a tap in? WOOOW that has never been done before. Media is acting as if he was toying around with Chielini, Bonnuci, and other world best defenders, which Messi has been doing at the age of 18 (not 20), in official games as well.
    Proof:
    And he would have done a lot more if he wasn't playing at the best team in the world at the time and had so little minutes on the pitch. Messi, 18, would easily walk into first team of Monaco. But what he has done in those few games he played at the age of 18 are some of the most astonishing things ever by an 18 year old.
    (and that argument that he hasn't done it in official games is one of the most retarded arguments ever. It's not about whether it counts what you do or not, it's about showing what you are capable of doing and if 18 year old Messi shows you that he is capable of gracefuly sliding down the pitch with perfect ball control taking on defenders as if they are not there, it doesn't matter whether it's friendly or not.)

    And only reason Mbappe has a lot going on in his career right now is because of media. As i said, they hugely benefit from making stories like that.
     
  23. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    How is terminology like this able to foster proper discussion?

    Odegaard has been playing at Heerenveen recently. His silky 'talent' doesn't shine through so far. Mbappe at age 18 and 6 months. Let me remind you that a) regardless of the validity of the overall point, the video you show has segments with #19 at the back (i.e. clearly age 19-20) and b) Mbappe has aged 17-18 exactly 3.0 succesful dribbles per 90 minutes at Champions League level (2.0 per game), while at the same moment also scoring 6 goals (1.0 goals per 90 minutes).

    Especially since Tielemans, Odegaard are from less established nations, it has always made it less likely to have the better career and trophy cabinet. Tielemans is a central midfielder anyway, and if he's succesful at Monaco the next step will probably be a top 3-6 Premier League club or so, as is already projected. So to be in that Mbappe stratosphere some steps are in between (if at all). A club as Real Madrid also looks at marketability (read that recent work/study on this by Steven Mandis), which is also the main reason why Kroos earns more than twice as much as Modric. That is how the club operates. It is already taking Hazard too long to get to a Champions League contender, regardless of whether his abilities merit it or not.

    Anyway, I'll pass on this.
     
  24. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Okay, here is logic for you why that happened. Media hypes goals and attackers. Odegaard is not an attacker and is not playing in the easy league (in terms of scoring) hence why he is not on the covers.

    I am just waiting for you to argue that Mbappe made some type of dribble 23 days before Messi did it so that's why he is better.
    First of all, Mbappe has a lot, A LOT of proving to do in next year or so to get remotely close to things that Messi, fro example has done at young age. Do you really believe that Mbappe will in next year get remotely close, for example, to the achievment of scoring a hattrick vs Real Madrid or producing one of the greatest goals of all time, which Messi did at the age of 19, let me not forget recieving the la liga player of the season in competition of Van Nisterlooy, Ronaldinho, Eto'o?

    There are two things that has to be separated in this discussion. Achievments and potential. Mbappe was extremely fortunated that he had an opportunity to do things he has done in recent months (not all the great players had that opportunity at such age, that doesn't mean they weren't great) , and yes, if we talk about success, Mbappe, at the age of 18 and a half, has been more successful in his career than Messi till that age, but potential is completely different topic, which is the point of this thread. THE BEST 16-18 year olds, not the most successful.

    Look at the way Tielemans performed at the age of 17 vs Arsenal:


    That is a talent, a potential. Why is he not on the covers? Because of the same reason Ronaldo is thought to be on the same level as Messi. Goals, and as i already said, his 15 goals in 27 games in French league is misleading. Not that impressive. On the UCL goals, it's simply too small sample to conclude anything out of it. If we were judging players like that by performing great on big ocassions, Milito would be one of the greatest strikers of all time and James, and his performance in WC 14, would make him top 5 players in the world. But is that reality?
    No.

    Decen talent, not deserving of the hype he recieves atm, at least not yet. I hope you see my problems in overhyping a guy who played good football for less than a 5 months. I am out.
     
  25. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    One more thing. Talent can't be meassured by numbers, especially not dribbling skills. Messi has around 3.0 dribbles per game, while Adama Traore, in premier league (aruably tougher league to do so), has 5.0+ dribbles at higher percantage than Messi, but nobody thinks he is remotely good of a dribbler as Messi and he isn't.
    I said this to prove how misleading those stats can be, but yeah, go ahead and comfort your beliefs in whatever the way you want.
     

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