Argentina : World cup 2018 Russia discussion

Still early, but what would be your ideal starting XI?

I'd go with 3-4-3 since our fullbacks are not very good.

Rulli
Mercado - Pezzella - Otamendi
Paredes - Banega
DiMaria - Lanzini - Acuna
Messi - Icardi - Dybala

The biggest concern is Banega, who shrinks on the big occasion. But with Mascherano past it, I can't think of any better option at central mid to partner Paredes. Maybe Pizarro or possibly one of the Fernandez (Nacho or Agusto).

 

Well unfortunately they don't have anyone better then Strinic. Pivaric is even worse. Maybe Jedvaj can play left back but he is always injured. If Corluka is healthy i would play him over Lovren as Lovren makes to many dumb mistakes. Lovren reminds me of Tudor in the national team. Argentina i have noticed has not played all there stars in the last game against Ecuador. Very surprised not to see Icardi or Dybala who are both playing great in Italy. I don't remember if Di maria played or not.

 

Lanzini is a very good player. Has he played for Argentina in qualifiers? Bilic who coached Lanzini in West Ham compared him to Modric.

 

Lanzini has yet to play a single meaningful match for the senior NT.

 

Pivaric is in Ukraine now. They won't call him again, someone bought him finally.
Lovren played great once on that LB position against Wales away. He scored one long distance goal.
Argentina tests always, they will switch 50-60 players. This is their advantage, they can find many players in their league, unknown for Croatian staff members.
Croatian problem is that Argentina knows their players well.

Both goalkeepers are similar I think, Subasic and Romero. Both in good clubs. Defence seems also similar. Otamendi is dangerous in defence, same as Mascherano, he can provoke also, few stronger fouls, verbal confrontations and everything goes down.

I think that Croatia has better central players. Trying to objective here. Fernando Gago was invited in recent actions, but he isn't like in Real Madrid. Pastore is in problems, I am afraid of Ever Banega. If he, Salvio from Benfica, Perotti from Roma block Modric and Rakitic, they will have that advantage.
They don't have those strictly creative players like Aimar, Riquelme.
We could say that Croatia has central line which is among top 10 in the world.

Dalmatian Perisic (he can go forward, help in defence, he scored three goals for Inter)

Bosnian Rakitic (technical, slightly slower, but very disciplined)

Dalmatian Modric (his first step can resolve a lot, passing abilities)

Northern guys Marcelo Brozovic, Marko Rog, Milan Badelj (they can work on CDM, CM positions and cover everything)

Dalmatian Filip Bradaric (he can be the surprise from Croatian national league, no one knows him)

Dalmatian Nikola Vlasic (he is in Everton now, weak form of that club)

Herzegovian Mario Pasalic (Milan - Spartak Moscow, major step back for sure)

Bosnian Mateo Kovacic (he was considered as the new Modric, but he is not that creative, solo player, good in defensive assignments)

Herzegovian Ante Coric (that's the new Modric)

Argentina has better attackers, more experienced.

Bosnian Mario Mandzukic El Guerrero.

Dalmatian Nikola Kalinic (more technical than Mandzukic I think)

Dalmatian Ante Rebic (he should be that surprise, tall, strong, aggressive)

Northern Andrej Kramaric (he seems consistent, not in the big club Hoffenheim, but he scores a lot)

Marko Pjaca (nightmare for every defence, he can play forward and in central attacking positions, arrogant, technical)

Dalmatian - Italian Ivan Santini (he scores often in French league)

Dalmatian Nikola Moro (U21 surprise, very interesting player)

Northern Bockaj (U21 interesting player, nice free kicker)

Dalmatian Andrija Balic (20 years and already in perspective Udinese)

With good scouting they could win against Argentina. With good day, luck, ideal air temperature...

They will play here. Nizhny Novgorod. It's not somewhere in Siberia, relatively normal part.

Kaliningrad is in Europe. That specific part between Poland and Lithuania. Kalinin got this city name, but he was never there. I rather use German name Konigsberg, the city of Immanuel Kant. Kaliningrad came much later.

Third city is Rostov, all three are closer, western Russia.

Complicated game for sure. Iceland will use defensive style in that third match, especially if Croatia arrives with only 3 points. Another triangle.

 

Slaven Bilic talks a lot. His coaching career is going down, no authority in West Ham. I read that he will take Sparta Prague maybe. Or Glasgow Rangers. He had great team in West Ham, but he destroyed this. So every player from that club has desperate state of mind. Where Bilic comes, he always says: This club is excellent club, these players are excellent...great history. He can thank a lot to CFF members who supported him abroad. It seems that doesn't work so much.

Lanzini is a River Plate product. They always have great players. He played 39 matches for West Ham in the last season. So he experienced all tough opponents from top. If he is that good, we can expect his transfer in much bigger club. If he stays in West Ham, this can be the clear message of his quality. He is 24 years old. He should progress much more.

 

Bauza is a noble figure. Lets all respect his high effort.

https://www.heraldrysinstitute.com/lang/es/cognomi/Bauza/España/idc/609838/#gsc.tab=0

My biggest concern is Croatian coach and the fact that Croatia doesn't have a coach since Tomislav Ivic. Miroslav Blazevic got lucky with great players in France, he never had any club career after. Only Croatian league, Slovenia and Hungary. All those who came after are weak...Baric, Bilic, Stimac, Kovac...they show this in their clubs.

 

I don't know in what kind of form will be our players in May-June, but from today's view of things, I'd pick 23 from these 33 players:
GOALKEEPERS:
Romero, Rulli, Guzman, Marchesin;
CENTRAL DEFENDERS & LATERALS:
Otamendi, Pezzella, Mammana, Rojo, Mascherano, Mussachio, Mercado, Garay, Bustos, J.L.Gomez, Insua, Tagliafico;
MIDFIELDERS & WINGERS:
Paredes, Perez, Ascacibar, Fernandez, Lo Celso, Lanzini, Di Maria, Pavon, Perotti, Rigoni, Acuna;
FORWARDS:
Messi, Dybala, Aguero, Icardi, Alario, Lautaro Martinez.
No Pipita, no Banega, no Pastore, no Biglia. They had enough matches to produce something for National Team, but they did not. Sampaoli simply can't rely on them.

 

As an Argentina fan, I'm not optimistic about their chances this WC. I expect them to win the group comfortably but unlike 2014, the KO phase will be brutal for Argentina.

It looks like Argentina will play Denmark or France in the R16 (likely Denmark, a team Argentina should beat).

Then it gets ridiculously tough. Argentina would likely play Spain (maybe Portugal).

If it advances, it'll surely play Germany in the semis, the team that has knocked it out of the last 3 WCs. Argentina is 0-4 vs Germany since last defeating them at the WC in 1986.

And finally, it appears that either France or Brazil would make the final. While any WC final's opponent is always a high caliber team, its hard to imagine that Argentina would beat 3 tough opponents in a row especially considering how mentally weak the team is. This is a group of elite players that have failed together for about 7 years in a row even when all the stars had aligned in their favour (e.g. hosting a Copa America, easy path to 2014 WC final, 2 Copa finals without having to play Brazil). These guys are chokers.

Anyways, I expect Argentina to enter the tournament in form with Sampaoli getting the team's act together. He's a fine tactician who is probably their best coach since Pekerman in 2006. But then the team will likely lose in the QF or SF.

Here's a sample (and relative ease) of opponents of recent WC winners:

Germany in 2016 (Algeria, France, Brazil, Argentina) - I give them credit for a strong run but I'd argue that definitely Algeria and probably France were weaker than Argentina's projected 2018 QF, SF, and final's opponents.

Spain in 2010 (Portugal, Paraguay, Germany, Netherlands) - 3 tough opponents but Paraguay is weaker than Argentina's projected 2018 KO stage opponents.

Italy in 2006 (Australia, Ukraine, Germany, France) - only 2 tough opponents.

Brazil in 2002 (Belgium, England, Turkey, Germany) - probably the easiest path one can get en route to WC glory (though Brazil was clearly the best team in the tourny).

I give Argentina only a 10% chance of pulling this off.

 

I remember that game like it was yesterday. That was the best Argentina WC team I've seen since I started watching the WC in 1994. They were good enough (talent and tactics wise) to win that WC.

They lost to Germany due to Pekerman's terrible decisions in the 2nd half. They were up 1-0 thanks to an Ayala header during a corner kick in the 2nd half. Germany offered very little in that game and were hopeless until Pekerman decided to sub off the team's engine (Riquelme) and go defensive with Cambiasso. Argentina could not hold the ball for the rest of the game and Germany was able to press, leading to Klose equalizing soon after the sub.

Another silly thing about that sub was it came immediately after Abbondzieri had to be subbed off due to injury, effectively reducing Argentina to 1 sub and little ability to adjust in the event that the game went to extra time. Low and behold, Argentina had nothing to offer after Germany's goal. Pekerman wasted his last sub on Cruz who was useless throughout his Argentina career and had no business even being on the team in 2006.

Had Pekerman kept on Riquelme, the result would likely have been in Argentina's favour. Another issue I had with Pekerman was his decision to start Saviola throughout the tournament (except for the Germany game). He offered very little to the attack. I understand why Pekerman used him from a tactical point of view but the likes of Tevez and Messi (who I know was coming off of injury) could have played the pressing role that Pekerman wanted out of Saviola.

 

You want to field 12 players?

 

I just dont see Argentina winning this, sadly

They do have the talent. In terms of talent only, they could win the whole thing. But they lack the mentality and the unity necesary as a team to win it. And i dont know where they would get the mental strenght between now and June 2018.

Just as i was sure we would get to the finals last world cup, and i was extremely convinced we would easily win both Copas Americas 2015 and 2016 (was wrong about that one), im sure we dont have the mental strenght to even get to the finals in this one.

We will probably exit in quarters. Semis at best.

I really really really hope im wrong and we do win, but i just cant picture it. And i used to picture this team winning everything. Not anymore.


3 consecutive finals losed can really break your faith, it seems

 

Im really sorry about Messi. I want him lifting the cup more than i want Argentina to win. He deserves better.

 

Beating an elite footballing nation might just be the confidence booster this crop of players needs to go all the way. So far, this team has never actually beat elite opposition before. Holland 2014 wasn't really a top tier nation anymore and that was done on penalties.

Imagine if they beat Spain, the team's confidence will be through the roof.

 

You are wrong about saviola. In fact, he should have started vs Germany instead of tevez who aside from a lot of hustle didn't offer much offensively. Saviola-crespo combo was working amazingly well.

 

I also remember 1994, as my first live World Cup. I liked also that Parma team, which had a lot of Argentines: Simeone, Veron, Almeyda, Crespo. In 2006, Argentina had really talented players.

Saviola was good in one period. But, he and Aimar went in Benfica. They were very bad there. Not sure why Aimar stopped to play like in Valencia.

Julio Ricardo Cruz was one the bench in his club also. He would enter in the last 20 minutes maybe. He had "joker" reputation, he played less, but he was effective.

Argentina needs one subordinated attacking midfielder or attacker, something like Ariel Ortega. He was always in the shadow, behind Maradona, Batistuta...now they are all mostly individuals in that part.

 

So, I've been looking at our draw, the opponents are not the easiest but we won't be traveling too much.

We will be based in Moscow. (BTW, @Gilbertsson , where will Croatia be based?)


Our opening match will be in Moscow. So there will be little to no travel there.

Our second match will be in Nizhny Novgorod. This will be a short flight. The two cities are about 220 miles from one another.

Our last group match will take place in St. Petersburg. This will be about 450 miles. We are looking at a hour, hour and a half flight.

If we top our group, we will return to Nizhny Novgorod for the R.16.

QF will take us to Sochi. This will be by far our longest journey. The two cities are a little over 800 miles. This will be a 2 hour- 2Hour and a half.
Semi-Final will take place in Moscow and so will the final.

If we finish second our journey will take us to Kazan(1 hour 30 minute),Nizhny Novgorod(As mentioned before), St. Petersburg and Moscow.

A team like Spain (who we can very likely face) will travel extensively in the group stages. I believe, the gallegos will also be in Moscow. They will open up in Sochi, which will take them from Moscow to Sochi(It says 1,000 but flight mileage I guess is different. But it will be 800 miles one way). Kazan(500 miles one way), Kaliningrad(Nearly 800 miles one way). But their R16 will be in Moscow, so they won't have to really travel. Their longest travels will be in the group stage.

Brasil, will be based in Sochi. They will have a ton of traveling.
From their second match they will go from Sochi to St.Petersburg, which is a 3 hour flight.
Then they will play Serbia in their last game, which will be in Moscow, that is a 2 hour flight.

R16. They will play in Samara, which is about 800 miles. If they would finish second, they'd only have to travel to St.Petersburg, but they'd have to likely play Germany in the R16(Assuming the Germans finish first). Regardless this wouldn't be smart because if they do finish second and win their R16 group, their QF clash would be in... Samara.

If they progress as group winners in the QF, they'd have to then travel to Kazan, which is a 2:30 hour flight. If they continue to progress to the semis, they'd be back in St.Petersburg, and the final will be in Moscow.

Say, what you want but travel and distance is important. Having to fly 2 and half hours to a distant city, have to play a game, then fly back and prepare for a semi final just 3-4 days later does matter, especially if you're at a month long tournament.

 

SupaMario, I don't know where is Croatia placed. But the places of entire Group stage are very suitable, European part or deeper in Kaliningrad. They want Moscow, but according to the headlines, there is a battle among national federations who will take the better camps.
England has the best camp somewhere in St. Petersburg. ForRestMix Club close to the Baltic Lake. Some teams want Sochi, because it has new facilities, Olympic Games and it's warmer down there. FIFA offered 65 locations. 12 of them are in Moscow region. Italy reserved the camp Lokomotiva, but it's empty now. Sweden took hotel Kempinski in place ?Gelendzik?, Krasnodar state.

The hardest moments will have those teams who play in Saransk, Kazan, Volgograd, Samara, Yekaterinburg.

Sochi and Rostov are far, but they have sea exit, which is nicer. Black Sea maybe not interesting, but it's warmer.

Kaliningrad is picked, just for sending message. This place is good, but it's bad if you need to travel in Moscow. St. Petersburg seems as the nicest city.

A lot of prominent architects designed St. Petersburg

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Gallegos don't support Spain, Galicia is an autonomous region in Spain, same as Basque, Catalonia.

It would be interesting to see how fans manage their flight transfers. Many people could use their personal cars, vans from Europe, which is really hard for them.

Observe the Group A. Russia plays in Moscow, St. Petersburg, but Uruguay plays in Yekaterinburg. After that in Rostov, third match is in Samara. This seems unfair.

We cross with group C. France, Denmark seem as the strongest there. France might have problems with Peru.

The 2nd team of Group D might become eliminated after knock out stage. So, it's very important to win the Group D. Croatia, Argentina want to avoid France for sure.

Brazil will have the easier road, first place in their group connects them with Mexico, Sweden, S. Korea. Germany will win that group.

Groups D and F seem as the groups of "death". Colombia has very easy group. Same as Belgium - England, Brazil always has easier group stage. Portugal and Spain can collect 6 points very easy. Same as Uruguay, they could win the group easy - 9 points.

 

Sochi is far from everything. I’m not sure if that is the best place for teams to be based in.

Group A, will be interesting. Russia isn’t a good team but you never know with the home-team. If they manage to win their group, that would could send Uruguay(if they finish second) to a big matchup v Spain(if they win their group).

And yes, it is important to win our group with France on the other side, assuming they would win their group. I have France penciled in as a finalist and if everything clicks for them in Russia I could see them in Moscow for the final. They have everything it takes to win it but let’s see where their mental fortitude is.

“Gallegos” is what we call Spaniards. It’s just slang.

 

Mediterranean countries like Sochi at least because of the weather.
They will use buses from their camp to the airport or maybe even bus drive from city to the city.

Distance between Kaliningrad and Moscow is 1 095 km, airline. On the road much more.

Moscow - St. Petersburg 633 km.

Sochi - Moscow 1 620 km.

1 000 km would be 10-11 h of bus drive.

The best thing is Moscow, Novogorod, Kazan, Saransk - these four are the closest to each other.

Sochi - St. Petersburg 2 345 km

Sochi - Yekaterinburg 2 784 km

St. Petersburg - Yekaterinburg 2 209 km

In Europe, these distances are too much. You can cross 5-6 states with these numbers.

 

All Nigeria v Argentina games in the world cup have been similar in my view. If Nigeria was a bit more street wise they would have got something from almost all the games. I remember in 2010 the goal scored by Gabriel Heinze was heavily protested by Nigerian fans in London. I think at least 50% of the time it would have been ruled out for a foul. A Nigerian player was about rushing out to clear the ball before it got to Heinze, but he was literally being held back by an argentine player, allowing Heinze reach the ball first and score. Pause the below video at 2:09

 

They actually did second round in 1994