You realize population change in America isn't a zero sum game right? http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2016/05/cleveland_population_slows_fin.html http://www.city-data.com/city/Cincinnati-Ohio.html https://www.google.com/#safe=active&q=Detroit Population 2012 Amazingly, one's vote in a city doesn't actually count when they don't live in that city. Do you now understand that the the midwest is getting smaller, older, and whiter? And are you just going to ignore the fact that Maria Cantwell got more votes in rural counties in 2012 than Hillary got in 2016? Unless Cantwell only recently obtained a vagina, that raises a doubt in your theory
Between 2010 and 2015, the census estimates that 35,000 fewer people live in Cuyahoga. So you might have found half those voters, assuming they're all Democrats, all voted for Obam.a. Where are the other half?
College students and millennials who voted for Harambe? College students and millennials who felt no desire to vote Democratic and didn't want to vote trump either? Going to the bathroom? Having sex? Whatever the reason, they didn't hate woman.
Anyways, your entitled to your opinion. Maybe you have to go through this like it's the 5 stages of grief. I'm done with this nonsensical debate, I'll let others debate you.
But these college students and millennials did show up in Florida. In North Carolina. In California. In Nevada. Even in Washington.
Could any of this be related to the effetive GOP campaign to frame her as corrupt? A narrative that was reinforced by her own primary competition and ultimately confirmed by her own actions? Could any of this be the ghosts of Iraq, Lybia, Ukraine and Syria rearing their ugly heads? Could any of this be her fake plastic public persona? As long as we're looking for missing Obama votes we can try opening some of these other doors. This country is not a monolith. These variables are going to play out differently in different parts of the country.
But why do they play better in certain parts of the country. Why are Ohioans more receptive to GOP attempts to frame her as corrupt when Nevadans, Georgians, and Washingtonians weren't?
Disclaimer : I'm pulling this put of my ***. But there's probably different factors at play in different states. Nevada has the Hispanic variable that is not as influential in rust belt. Washington state is one of the most desirable places to live in the country so maybe the population there is more successful and content with status quo. Georgia is probably a combination of both those factors ... uptick in Hispanic and other minority populations and uptick in successful professional class.
I'm not prepared to say why the Rust Belt was so different from the rest of the country, but it's interesting that late deciders in the Rust Belt (and Florida) broke for Trump at much higher margins than elsewhere. Shy Trump vote? Maybe, maybe not. But here's a clue: final week deciders broke for Trump by a modest 5pts. Margin was 2-5x that in MI/PA/WI. pic.twitter.com/8QoHnqKIa8— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) November 11, 2016
The late surge in the Rust Belt, IMO, had a lot to do with this ad. It doesn't matter that the narrative is tinged with the kind of conspiracy theories that remind some of the Elders of Zion, or the kind of ideas peddled by Lyndon La Rouche, the theories about the so-called Trilateral Commission, or whatever. The ad was beamed to folks who for the most part aren't even aware of that historical context to the narrative, and the scapegoats weren't the "Jews" even if they included Jews (and even if Trump wasn't above giving some of those Jews a more prominent glaze). The scapegoats were instead the establishment in the US, tied to some alleged global network tied to international financial interests and 'big corporations' all working to rob the average Joe of his union job and taking his/her work to places it is done cheaper or bringing in cheaper workers here to do that job. For the record, while I adamantly believe in the fact that AIPAC and the pro Israeli lobby has inordinate influence on American foreign policy, this particular strand of conspiracy theory isn't something that I believe in at all. But the way the story was told in ad can easily influence the blue collar workers it was beamed to flip. P.S. Florida, on the other hand, was flipped by a somewhat opposite tactic. There, Trump went out of his way to paint himself the champion of Israel and the guy who would stand up to Iran. While Trump, besides being a pig, is also quite a con man, with little clear indication of what he intends to do now that he has won the big prize, I have to admit that I underestimated him too. The guy knows how to make a sales pitch.
The thing is that the Dems basically run WA on most levels now after this election. At the state level, they managed to get back control of the state senate and the Dems now have control of the Lt. Gov office (the new guy is of Iranian background, and has been blind since he was 8). The GOP were guaranteed once congressional seat thanks the the jungle primary system (similar happened in another district where a Bernie supporter got elected). Murray had no trouble getting re-elected, and she's rode in on Bill's coat tails. Cantwell has been Senator for 15 years and has little to battle for. If one gets about 65% in King Co, they only need a basic majority in the rest of the Puget Sound to ensure that they are elected. The only County that Hillary won east of the Cascades was Whitman (WSU Country). The bigger talk in this election were the local initiatives such as ST3 (Transit funding in King Co.) and state initiatives on increased min wage (likely to pass) and a proposed carbon tax (odds on defeat).
So are you saying that Democrats can't do to working class voters what Republicans do to blacks and hispanics? I couldn't agree more.
Well, the Comey leak effect, maybe? And the "It's rigged! They couldn't possibly have read all those emails" argument worked on one person I know. I believe I mentioned the guy I know who went to the first Trump rally and rejected him on the grounds that we are NOT, under any circumstances, bringing back coal mining to NE PA: He voted for Trump. He thought the email thing was proof that the Clinton machine rigged this thing. He's a retired math professor, and at one time was the chair of his university's Math and Computer Science department.
Or they see her hypocrisy in staying married to a man who has also been accused of having a horrible attitude/history with women.