Now keeping this within my top 50 as most of the largest discrepencies are teams in the lower half of the rankings. Here are the most overrated and underrated teams that actually matter, within the top 50 Top Underrated teams according to my rankings Top 50 1. Qatar +29 2. Russia +22 3. Burkina Faso +19 4. Algeria + 16 5. Nigeria +12 WHY ? Again the reason for this has been covered already. Qatar, Russia, Nigeria, Algeria are all teams that FIFA is taking way too long to recognize their upward trajectory. They were all teams that were ranked fairly poorly under the old system. Russia mainly because of playing only friendlies before the WC. They actually had a poor record pre-WC to be honest, but this was compounded by lack of competitive games. Qatar frankly had a poor record pre 2019 AFC cup, but again FIFA is too slow to react to their cup win, same said for Algeria. But these teams do have an upward trajectory, its just taking too long. Burkina Faso is a bit of an outlier that I am a bit puzzled by, they must be still living off of their solid 2017 ANC where they finished 3rd, and they must have not played enough new matches to bring their points average down significantly. They also must stilll have a boost from the 2 draws against Senegal in the 2018 WCQ. If they play more matches and are unable to maintain that points average, which will likely happen, they will go down. Most overrated teams according to my rankings in top 50 1. Slovakia -16 2. Poland - 15 3. USA - 14 4. Tunisia - 13 5. Peru -11 WHY ? Poland, Slovakia, and USA can all be attributed again to FIFA's slow reaction to poor results, while my rankings picks up on reality much quicker. Tunisia was overranked, pre-new FIFA format because of the AFC and Concacaf syndrome, where beating really bad opponents gets you credit simply for winning. This can effect CAF as well if a team continuously gets lucky draws and is paired along with really weak opponents. This happened with Tunisia, and they simply got on a hot winning streak, avoiding draws because they came up against poor opponents. After the FIFA ranking switch, it is again a case of slow reaction to poor results, but the trajectory of Tunisia is down, but not down fast enough as my rankings work. Peru being undervalued by my rankings is a number of reasons, first being once again the slow reaction by FIFA to poor results. Peru were ranked highly before 2018 WC both by me and FIFA. THey lost 2 WC matches, then lost 6 friendly matches between the WC and Copa, including losses to Ecuador, Costa Rica, El Salvador (all teams ranked well below Peru). Despite finishing 2nd at the Copa, they lost twice to Brazil (1 5-0 loss and my rankings takes loss and win margins into account) They only had 2 victories during the whole tournament, 1 against Boliva ( a very low ranked side which will not help Peru's ranking) Out of their 6 matches only 3 gave them decent points (3-0 victory over chile, and draws against Uruguay and Venezuela)
I agree with you, but if you look at every hypothetical combination of rankings and game outcome, it can be hard to make a ranking that couldn't produce anything to complain about. The old FIFA formula had a strength of opponent that was done based on opponent's ranking rather than value and was linear. The current formula is not linear. Here's an example using a game weight of 25: Team X is 100 points better than Team Y, 100 points worse than Team A, and 300 points better than Team B. Therefore, Team Y is 200 points worse than Team A and 200 points better than Team B. Team X would get this from a draw against Team A: 0.5 - (1/(10^(100/600) + 1) = 0.0948*25 = 2.37 Team X would get this from a win against Team B: 1 - (1/(10^(-300/600) + 1) = 0.2403*25 = 6.01 Team Y would get this from a draw against Team A: 0.5 - (1/(10^(200/600) + 1) = 0.1830*25 = 4.57 Team Y would get this from a win against Team B: 1 - (1/(10^(-200/600) + 1) = 0.3170*25 = 7.93 In games against Team A, Team Y gained 2.20 more than Team X. In games against Team B, Team Y gained 1.92 more than Team X. 2.20 and 1.92 may sound close. However, if you look at ratios, it's different. In games against Team A, Team Y gained 1.93 times what Team X gained. In games against Team B, Team Y gained 1.32 times what Team X gained.
Well it would appear that my rankings have been proven far more accurate than the rubbish that is FIFA when it comes to Comoros. This window they beat Togo (18 spots ahead of them) in a road match, and then drew against Egypt (literally 100 spots ahead of them) and currently sit on top of the Nations cup qualifying group with a 2 point lead. There is no way Comoros is anywhere near ranked #142 They have now drawn with Morocco, Ghana, Egypt all in competative matches.
World Soccer Rankings Dec 2019 1. Belgium – 88 2. France - 87 3. England – 77 4. Spain - 76 5. Brazil – 74 6. Croatia - 73 7. Colombia – 70 8. Denmark – 68 9. Uruguay - 66 10. Argentina – 64 11. Portugal – 63 12. Switzerland - 62 13. Holland - 61 14. Germany – 61 15. Sweden - 60 16. Russia - 58 17. Italy – 57 18. Venezuela - 54 19. Senegal - 52 20. Algeria – 51 21. Mexico - 50 22. Chile – 50 23. Nigeria – 49 24. Ukraine - 49 25. Serbia – 48 26. Wales - 47 27. Qatar - 47 28. Japan - 47 29. Iran – 46 30. South Korea - 46 31. Peru - 45 32. Ireland R. - 45 33. Turkey – 44 34. USA - 44 35. Poland - 44 36. Austria – 44 37. Morocco – 43 38. Tunisia - 42 39. Paraguay - 42 40. Ghana - 41 41. Bosnia – 41 42. Burkina Faso – 41 43. Romania - 40 44. Australia – 39 45. Iceland – 39 46. Norway - 39 47. Ivory Coast - 38 48. Cameroon – 38 49. Slovakia - 38 50. Egypt - 37 51. Czech. Rep. - 37 52. Costa Rica – 37 53. Greece – 37 54. South Africa - 36 55. N. Ireland – 36 56. Uganda - 36 57. Georgia - 35 58. Finland – 34 59. R. Congo - 33 60. Ecuador – 32 61. Zambia - 32 62. Mali – 31 63. Scotland - 31 64. Saudi Arabia - 31 65. Benin – 31 66. Cape Verde – 31 67. Montenegro – 31 68. Slovenia - 31 69. Honduras - 30 70. Canada – 30 71. Hungary – 30 72. Kosovo – 30 73. Madagascar - 30 74. Bolivia – 29 75. Bulgaria – 29 76. Gabon - 28 77. Albania – 28 78. Macedonia - 28 79. Iraq – 27 80. Mozambique – 27 81. Zimbabwe - 27 82. Guinea - 26 83. Angola – 26 84. Mauritania - 26 85. Libya - 26 86. Israel – 26 87. Kenya - 26 88. Haiti – 25 89. Togo - 25 90. Comoros – 25 91. Syria - 25 92. Congo – 25 93. Jamaica – 24 94. Uzbekistan - 24 95. Armenia – 24 96. Gambia – 24 97. Rwanda - 24 98. Malawi – 24 99. UAE - 23 100. Sierra Leone - 23
101. Tanzania - 23 102. E. Guinea – 23 103. Kazakhstan – 23 104. Liberia – 22 105. Namibia – 22 106. Panama - 21 107. New Zealand - 21 108. El Salvador - 20 109. Curacao - 20 110. Bahrain – 20 111. Belarus - 20 112. Azerbaijan – 20 113. Sudan - 20 114. Cyprus – 20 115. Kuwait – 20 116. Niger - 20 117. Jordan - 19 118. China – 19 119. Luxembourg - 19 120. Guinea B - 19 121. Ethiopia - 19 122. Burundi - 19 123. Botswana – 19 124. Central Africa R – 19 125. Guatemala – 19 126. Lebanon - 18 127. Estonia – 18 128. Lesotho – 18 129. Oman - 17 130. Moldova - 17 131. Lithuania – 17 132. Vietnam - 16 133. Trinidad & T - 16 134. Chad – 16 135. N. Korea - 15 136. F. Islands – 15 137. Turkmenistan - 15 138. Andorra – 15 139. Swaziland – 15 140. Thailand - 14 141. Latvia – 14 142. Palestine - 14 143. India – 14 144. Malta - 13 145. Kyrgzstan – 13 146. Phillipines – 11 147. Singapore – 11 148. Tajikistan - 10 149. South Sudan - 10 150. Bermuda – 9 151. Suriname - 9 152. Sao Tome - 9 153. Malaysia - 9 154. Guyana – 9 155. Nicaragua – 8 156. Seychelles - 8 157. Leichenstein - 6 158. Afghanistan – 6 159. Yemen - 5 160. Djibouti - 5 161. Grenada - 4 162. Gibraltar - 4 163. Cuba - 4
Did you stop at Cuba because below this teams don't have any points in your system, or for some other reason?
No I dont have time to do every single team. It's a time consuming hobby. I try to do the most relevant teams. I've included all the teams that appear in continental tournaments, and the teams which get the best results in their respective confederations. There are no significant teams I've missed, I included Cuba because they are a regular gold cup participant. There are definitely worse teams however. I know for a fact that San Marino would be worse if I did their numbers. I think they are the only European team I have not included.
My updated world rankings which took into account all FIFA matchdays since November 2019. So we had the August/Sep 2020 matches (only Euro teams) the October 2020 matches, November 2020 matches, and the March 2021 matches. Their points averages or on the side. 1. Belgium -84 2. France -83 3. Brazil -75 4. England -74 5. Spain -73 6. Portugal -69 7. Denmark -67 8. Argentina -66 9. Colombia -66 10. Uruguay -63 11. Holland -63 12. Croatia -59 13. Germany -58 14. Italy -58 15. Switzerland -57 16. Algeria -55 17. Sweden -55 18. Venezuela -54 19. Chile -53 20. Turkey -52 21. Mexico -51 22. Russia -51 23. Ukraine -51 24. Nigeria -49 25. Iran -48 26. Senegal -47 27. Japan -47 28. Wales -46 29. Poland -46 30. Serbia -46 31. USA -45 32. Austria -45 33. Paraguay -44 34. Norway -44 35. Qatar -44 36. Peru -43 37. South Korea -43 38. Morocco -42 39. Hungary -42 40. Tunisia -42 41. Ivory Coast -41 42. Ghana -41 43. Burkina Faso -41 44. Czech. Rep. -40 45. Finland -40 46. Australia -39 47. Romania -39 48. Ecuador -38 49. Egypt -38 50. Ireland R -38 51. Bosnia & H -36 52. Costa Rica -35 53. Uganda -35 54. Zambia -34 55. Slovakia -33 56. South Africa -33 57. Cameroon -32 58. Scotland -32 59. Iceland -32 60. Greece -32 61. Mali -32 62. Saudi Arabia -32 63. Macedonia -32 64. Benin -31 65. R. Congo -31 66. Canada -30 67. Cape Verde -30 68. N. Ireland -30 69. Kosovo -30 70. Slovenia -29 71. Georgia -29 72. Honduras -28 73. Gabon -28 74. Madagascar -28 75. Kenya -28 76. Iraq -27 77. Guinea -26 78. Albania -26 79. Zimbabwe -26 80. Montenegro -26 81. Israel -26 82. Comoros -26 83. Bolivia -25 84. Haiti -25 85. Bulgaria -25 86. Mauritania -25 87. Gambia -25 88. Mozambique -25 89. Rwanda -25 90. Angola -25 91. Libya -25 92. Jamaica -24 93. Panama -24 94. Armenia -24 95. E. Guinea -24 96. Syria -24 97. Tanzania -24 98. Namibia -24 99. Uzbekistan -23 100. Sudan -23
Analysis of my rankings compared to FIFA this time around, I will look specifically within the top 50. Over rated vs Under Rated. According To my rankings the top 10 FIFA overrated teams within the top 50 are. Difference in rankings shown by side. 1. Jamaica -47 2. N. Ireland -20 3. Slovakia -19 4. Tunisia -14 5. Scotland -14 6. Wales -11 7. USA -10 8. Mexico -10 9. Peru -9 10. Austria -9 Top 10 FIFA underrated teams (Top 50) per my rankings. Difference in rankings shown by side. 1. Qatar +23 2. Ivory Coast +18 3. Algeria +17 4. Burkina Faso +17 5. Russia +16 6. Venezuela +12 7. Turkey +9 8. Finland +9 9. Norway +8 10. Nigeria +8
Look at the biggest movers and losers since my last ranking from November 2019 to the current last FIFA window March 2021, only within the top 100. Biggest movers 1. Hungary +32 2. Macedonia +15 3. Finland +13 4. Turkey +13 5. Panama +13 6. Ecuador +12 7. Norway +12 8. Gambia +9 9. Comoros +8 10. Czech. R. +7 Biggest Losers 1. Ireland Rep. -18 2. Iceland -14 3. Georgia -14 4. N. Ireland -13 5. Montenegro -13 6. Bulgaria -10 7. Bosnia & H -10 8. Cameroon -9 9. Bolivia -9 10. Qatar -8
updated rankings including this summers international matches. Euros, Copa, Gold Cup, World cup qualifiers, and friendlies. Points average on the side. 1. Belgium -80 2. Italy -77 3. France -76 4. England -75 5. Brazil -75 6. Argentina -72 7. Spain -71 8. Portugal -68 9. Denmark -67 10. Holland -59 11. Uruguay -58 12. Colombia -58 13. Germany -58 14. Algeria -57 15. Switzerland -55 16. Sweden -55 17. Mexico -52 18. Paraguay -49 19. Senegal -48 20. Chile -48 21. Iran -48 22. Venezuela -48 23. Japan -47 24. Peru -47 25. Hungary -47 26. USA -46 27. Croatia -46 28. Turkey -46 29. Nigeria -45 30. Ukraine -45 31. Poland -45 32. Serbia -45 33. Czech. Rep. -44 34. Russia -44 35. Morocco -43 36. Ivory Coast -43 37. Wales -43 38. Qatar -43 39. S. Korea -43 40. Norway -43 41. Tunisia -42 42. Finland -42 43. Austria -41 44. Ghana -40 45. Ecuador -39 46. Australia -39 47. Ireland Rep. -39 48. Egypt -38 49. Romania -38 50. Burkina Faso -38 51. Cameroon -35 52. Slovakia -35 53. Bosnia & H -35 54. Canada -34 55. Greece -34 56. Uganda -34 57. S. Africa -33 58. Zambia -33 59. S. Arabia -32 60. Iceland -32 61. Scotland -31 62. Costa Rica -31 63. R. Congo -31 64. N. Ireland -31 65. Benin -31 66. Mali -30 67. Kosovo -30 68. Georgia -30 69. Gabon -28 70. Slovenia -28 71. Macedonia -28 72. Albania -28 73. Cape Verde -28 74. Madagascar -28 75. Kenya -28 76. Iraq -27 77. Israel -27 78. Honduras -26 79. Bolivia -26 80. Armenia -26 81. Zimbabwe -26 82. Comoros -26 83. Panama -25 84. Guinea -25 85. Bulgaria -25 86. Mauritania -25 87. Angola -25 88. Rwanda -25 89. Mozambique -25 90. Montenegro -24 91. E. Guinea -24 92. Gambia -24 93. Libya -24 94. Tanzania -24 95. Namibia -24 96. Jamaica -23 97. Haiti -23 98. Uzbekistan -23 99. Syria -23 100. Sudan -23
from March 2021 to the updated Aug 2021 rankings biggest movers and losers from this summer's matches. Top Movers 1. Paraguay +15 2. Hungary +14 3. Armenia +14 4. Italy +12 5. Peru +12 6. Canada +12 7. Czech. Rep +11 8. Panama +10 9. Senegal +7 10. Cameroon +6 Top 10 lowest droppers 1. Croatia -15 2. Haiti -13 3. Russia -12 4. Austria -11 5. Costa Rica -10 6. Wales -9 7. Turkey -8 8. Macedonia -8 9. Ukraine -7 10. Burkina Faso -7
Interesting rankings. I might set up my own formula. It's tricky to determine the starting positions.
It's not related to this particular post but how do you factor friendlies compared to qualifiers and major tournaments? Do you treat Nations League games as friendlies? Do you include also matches that are outside of the official FIFA international dates ? Personally I would exclude them fully.
I know Algeria are a good team but how on earth are they 14th while Vice World Cup champions Croatia are only 27th?
FIFA include only results from the last four years. I know your rankings are only two years old so to speak. But do you agree that four years are ideal?
My rankings are based on a points average of your last 30 slots. I say slots instead of games because World Cup matches are worth 3 slots/games, while continental championships are worth 2, and friendlies and qualifiers and nations league are all worth 1. I admit it is a slight flaw that friendlies are worth the same as qualifiers and nations league, but teams aren't really playing so many friendlies these days with the nations league, but also I wanted more opportunity to rank teams cross confederation and since that can only be done every 4 years, friendlies were the only way to really do so. Yes I completely exclude friendlies outside of FIFA match days.
I was actually thinking of creating my own ranking too, kind of gave up/didn't have time though. If I do get around to creating one sometime, I would probably start by taking the FIFA ranks and converting them into my formula. You could also use Elo, they are kind of weird since they include non-FIFA members though. In the beginning your rankings would be pretty similar to the FIFA/Elo rankings, but over time you would begin to see the differences.
Have you looked at Croatia's record since that World Cup ? How I like to distinguish my rankings from FIFA, is that my rankings are a much more accurate measure of CURRENT form, while FIFA likes to just stay far in the past and doesn't change fast enough to accurately look at current form. Spain 6 Croatia 0 England 2 Croatia 1 Hungary 2 Croatia 1 Tunisia 2 Croatia 1 Azerbaijan 1 Croatia 1 Wales 1 Croatia 1 Portugal 4 Croatia 1 France 4 Croatia 2 Croatia 1 France 2 Turkey 3 Croatia 3 Sweden 2 Croatia 1 Croatia 2 Portugal 3 Slovenia 1 Croatia 0 Croatia 1 Armenia 1 Belgium 1 Croatia 0 England 1 Croatia 0 Croatia 1 Czech R 1 They've lost 12 matches since the World Cup. 3 times against teams that were significantly ranked weaker than them (Tunisia, Hungary, Slovenia) You can complain that the Tunisia match was a friendly but the Hungary and Slovenia losses were competitive matches. Theyve also been blown out a few times, and my rankings takes into account win and loss margins. So while Croatia has lost 12 matches since the world cup, in that same time span Algeria has lost once, and are recently crowned African champions, who defeated the top ranked African team, Senegal (at the time) twice in that competition. They've also beaten Colombia 3-0, and drawn with Mexico. Croatia's inability to hang with the big boys in the A Nations league has not done their rankings any favours, nor has their 3 losses to significantly weaker sides.
No I've been doing these rankings for over 2 decades. As I explained above my rankings are based on your last 30 slots/games. Time period is not a factor so to speak. If you play less games, then you will be ranked on games that go further back in time, if you play more games you will be ranked on more recent results. For instance the European, African, and Asian teams still have World Cup 2018 matches affecting their points. While the Concacaf and South American teams do not because they have played 2 full tournaments since, where each game counts for 2 slots. Europe, Africa, and Asia have only played 1 tournament.
My updated World Rankings up to October 2021 (does not include recent November matches) 1. Argentina – 77 2. Belgium – 77 3. Italy - 76 4. England - 76 5. Brazil – 76 6. France – 72 7. Spain - 68 8. Portugal - 68 9. Denmark – 68 10. Germany – 59 11. Holland - 59 12. Algeria – 59 13. Uruguay - 56 14. Switzerland - 55 15. Colombia – 55 16. Sweden - 53 17. Mexico – 49 18. Senegal - 48 19. Chile – 48 20. Croatia – 47 21. Serbia - 47 22. Peru - 47 23. Iran – 47 24. Poland - 46 25. Norway – 46 26. Paraguay – 46 27. USA - 45 28. Ecuador – 45 29. Ukraine - 45 30. Hungary – 45 31. Morocco – 44 32. Nigeria - 44 33. Czech. Rep. - 44 34. Tunisia - 44 35. Japan – 43 36. Russia - 43 37. Ivory Coast – 43 38. Wales - 43 39. South Korea – 43 40. Turkey - 42 41. Finland – 42 42. Venezuela - 42 43. Ghana - 40 44. Australia – 40 45. Ireland R - 40 46. Egypt - 39 47. Austria – 39 48. Burkina Faso – 39 49. Canada - 37 50. Cameroon – 36 51. Romania - 36 52. Greece – 36 53. Qatar - 36 54. Bosnia & H – 35 55. Mali – 34 56. Saudi Arabia – 33 57. Scotland – 33 58. South Africa – 33 59. Uganda - 33 60. Slovakia - 32 61. Bolivia - 31 62. Benin – 31 63. R. Congo - 30 64. N. Ireland - 29 65. Costa Rica - 29 66. Cape Verde – 29 67. Zambia - 29 68. Albania – 29 69. Kosovo – 29 70. Panama – 28 71. Slovenia - 28 72. Israel – 28 73. Macedonia - 27 74. Iceland - 27 75. Gabon – 27 76. Georgia – 27 77. Madagascar - 27 78. Bulgaria – 26 79. Zimbabwe - 26 80. Iraq - 26 81. Bahrain – 26 82. Comoros – 26 83. Jamaica - 25 84. Guinea - 25 85. Angola – 25 86. Mozambique - 25 87. Kenya - 25 88. Honduras - 24 89. E. Guinea – 24 90. Libya - 24 91. Armenia – 24 92. Mauritania – 24 93. Tanzania - 24 94. Gambia - 24 95. El Salvador – 23 96. Montenegro – 23 97. Sierra Leone – 23 98. Sudan - 23 99. Rwanda - 23 100. Namibia – 23
How is Brazil only 5th? For me they've been the most consistent team in the world in the last three four years.
If you look Only 1 point separates the top 5. Had Brazil won the Copa, I'm sure they'd currently be #1.