All-Time Toughest USMNT Opponents

Discussion in 'USA Men' started by KALM, Dec 11, 2013.

  1. KALM

    KALM Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Boston/Providence
    The following is a list of the toughest opponents that the USA have ever played according to Elo ratings for our opponents (which are included in parentheses) immediately prior to each match.

    The catch is I only included matches in which our opponents fielded representative sides. My criterion for what was representative was that the majority of our opponents' starting lineup (i.e. 6 out of 11 players) must have started at least one of their two most recent competitive matches before or after the game against us. And by competitive matches I meant the World Cup, World Cup Qualifiers, Copa America, the European Cup, or European Cup Qualifiers. Which means my thread title isn't completely accurate, because it's very likely that Brazil's or Germany's or Argentina's B teams (all of which I had to exclude here and there) were superior to some of the teams near the bottom of this list. And of course Elo can sometimes be off -- it significantly underrated Italy's chances going into the 2006 World Cup.

    I included 40 teams because that's the number of opponents (fielding representative sides) that we've played against that at the time had a higher rating than we've ever been able to achieve. I've also included Germany's and Portugal's current ratings to give our upcoming World Cup group some context.

    1. Spain (2105) -- 2009 Confederations Cup Semi-Finals 2-1 Win
    2. Spain (2099) -- 2011 Friendly 4-0 Loss
    3. Brazil (2090) -- 2009 Confederations Cup Final 3-2 Loss
    4. Brazil (2073) -- 2010 Friendly 2-0 Loss
    5. Brazil (2069) -- 1995 Copa America 1-0 Loss
    -- Current Germany Rating (2060)
    6. Brazil (2056) -- 2007 Friendly 4-2 Loss
    7. Brazil (2041) -- 2009 Confederations Cup Group Stage 3-0 Loss
    8. Germany (2021) -- 1998 World Cup Group Stage 2-0 Loss
    9. Argentina (2016) -- 1930 World Cup Semi-finals 6-1 Loss
    10. Argentina (2014) -- 2008 Friendly 0-0 Draw
    11. Netherlands (2003) -- 2010 Friendly 2-1 Loss
    12. Brazil (1999) -- 2001 Friendly 2-1 Loss
    13. England (1997) -- 1950 World Cup Group Stage 1-0 Win
    14. Poland (1994) -- 1975 Friendly 7-0 Loss
    15. Argentina (1980) -- 2011 Friendly 1-1 Draw
    16. England (1975) -- 2010 World Cup Group Stage 1-1 Draw
    17. Germany (1969) -- 1993 Friendly 3-0 Loss
    18. Brazil (1968) -- 1994 World Cup 2nd Round 1-0 Loss
    19. Argentina (1963) -- 2007 Copa America 4-1 Loss
    20. Italy (1962) -- 2009 Confederations Cup 3-1 Loss
    20. Netherlands (1962) -- 2002 Friendly 2-0 Loss
    22. Netherlands (1955) -- 2004 Friendly 1-0 Loss
    22. Spain (1955) -- 2008 Friendly 1-0 Loss
    24. Yugoslavia (1951) -- 1998 World Cup 1-0 Loss
    25. Portugal (1946) - 2002 World Cup Group Stage 3-2 Win
    26. Czech Republic (1939) - 2006 World Cup Group Stage 3-0 Loss
    27. Poland (1939) - 1973 Friendly 1-0 Win
    28. Italy (1933) - 1990 World Cup Group Stage 1-0 Loss
    29. Poland (1932) - 1973 Friendly 4-0 Loss
    30. Germany (1929) -- 2002 World Cup Quarter-finals 1-0 Loss
    31. Italy (1927) - 2006 World Cup Group Stage 1-1 Draw
    32. England (1909) - 1985 Friendly 5-0 Loss
    33. Italy (1906) - 1934 World Cup 7-1 Loss
    --Current Portugal Rating (1905)
    34. Netherlands (1904) - 1998 Friendly 2-0 Loss
    35. Mexico (1902) - 2011 Gold Cup Final 4-2 Loss
    36. C.I.S. (1890) -- 1992 Friendly 2-1 Win*
    37. England (1881) -- 2008 Friendly 2-0 Loss
    37. C.I.S. (1881) -- 1992 Friendly 1-0 Loss*
    39. Mexico (1879) -- 2012 Friendly 1-0 Win
    40. Mexico (1876) -- 2005 World Cup Qualifier 2-1 Loss
    --Highest Ever USA Rating (1871)

    Record: 6-30-4

    Final note: It was sometimes hard finding lineups and in some cases I might have wrongly excluded teams for not fielding representative sides because I missed a recent competitive match, so this might not be 100% accurate. Furthermore I couldn't find opposition lineups for the two starred matches (both against the Commonwealth of Independent States in 1992). And finally, I excluded Olympics matches because I wasn't certain how representative any of those sides were. But overall I think this is pretty close to accurate.
     
  2. Matt in the Hat

    Matt in the Hat Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 21, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Shocked that Colombia 94 isn't on that list
     
  3. KALM

    KALM Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Boston/Providence
    #3 KALM, Dec 11, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2013
    Colombia's Elo rating heading into that 1994 World Cup game was 1851. Prior to our last match this year, the USA had an Elo rating of 1855.

    It appears that Colombia lost a ton of points from their first Group Stage loss in that tournament against Romania. Prior to that match, they had an Elo rating of 1912. Which would have put them just below Italy in 2006 in the list above.
     
  4. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    This match finished 2-0.
     
  5. KALM

    KALM Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Boston/Providence
    I knew I wouldn't get through that post without a typo. I was just hoping it wouldn't be in the first match.
     
    Guinho repped this.
  6. tyguy

    tyguy Member

    Apr 11, 2006
    Cheeseland
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We beat Brazil in the 1999 Gold Cup. How was that team ranked in regards to your list?
     
  7. KALM

    KALM Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Boston/Providence
    That Brazilian side -- I'm guessing you meant 1998 -- would have been the best side we've ever faced, except their lineup wasn't deemed representative enough according to the criteria I'd set.

    Their lineup in that match was: Taffarel, Junior, Junior Baiano, Ze Maria, Goncalves, Sergio Manoel, Flavio Conceicao, Zinho, Mauro Silva, Edmundo, Romario

    The two competitive matches closest to that one were the first two games of the World Cup four months later. In those matches only Taffarel and Junior Baiano from the above lineup started.
     
    tyguy repped this.
  8. TheyCallMeBruce

    TheyCallMeBruce Member+

    Jul 22, 2013
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    I love stuff like this. Awesome work.
     
  9. ClevelandForce

    Jan 27, 2010
  10. KALM

    KALM Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Boston/Providence
    Okay, I need to make a couple corrections. I completely failed to factor in the 1999 Copa America, which meant I accidentally left out two matches of ours from 1999 that we played against representative top tier opposition: Brazil and Argentina. We ended up losing against Brazil in the Confederations Cup and winning against Argentina in a home friendly.

    I've also managed to track down the two CIS lineups from the matches I'd included, and there don't appear to be enough regular starters to keep them on this list, so I'm getting rid of them. The additions and removals together leave our record unchanged.


    1. Brazil (2108) -- 1999 Confederations Cup Group Stage 1-0 Loss
    2. Spain (2105) -- 2009 Confederations Cup Semi-Finals 2-0 Win
    3. Spain (2099) -- 2011 Friendly 4-0 Loss
    4. Brazil (2090) -- 2009 Confederations Cup Final 3-2 Loss
    5. Brazil (2073) -- 2010 Friendly 2-0 Loss
    6. Brazil (2069) -- 1995 Copa America 1-0 Loss
    -- Current Germany Rating (2060)
    7. Brazil (2056) -- 2007 Friendly 4-2 Loss
    8. Brazil (2041) -- 2009 Confederations Cup Group Stage 3-0 Loss
    9. Germany (2021) -- 1998 World Cup Group Stage 2-0 Loss
    10. Argentina (2016) -- 1930 World Cup Semi-finals 6-1 Loss
    11. Argentina (2014) -- 2008 Friendly 0-0 Draw
    12. Netherlands (2003) -- 2010 Friendly 2-1 Loss
    13. Brazil (1999) -- 2001 Friendly 2-1 Loss
    14. England (1997) -- 1950 World Cup Group Stage 1-0 Win
    15. Poland (1994) -- 1975 Friendly 7-0 Loss
    16. Argentina (1980) -- 2011 Friendly 1-1 Draw
    17. England (1975) -- 2010 World Cup Group Stage 1-1 Draw
    18. Germany (1969) -- 1993 Friendly 3-0 Loss
    19. Brazil (1968) -- 1994 World Cup 2nd Round 1-0 Loss
    20. Argentina (1963) -- 2007 Copa America 4-1 Loss
    21. Italy (1962) -- 2009 Confederations Cup 3-1 Loss
    22. Netherlands (1962) -- 2002 Friendly 2-0 Loss
    23. Netherlands (1955) -- 2004 Friendly 1-0 Loss
    23. Spain (1955) -- 2008 Friendly 1-0 Loss
    25. Yugoslavia (1951) -- 1998 World Cup 1-0 Loss
    26. Portugal (1946) - 2002 World Cup Group Stage 3-2 Win
    27. Czech Republic (1939) - 2006 World Cup Group Stage 3-0 Loss
    28. Poland (1939) - 1973 Friendly 1-0 Win
    29. Italy (1933) - 1990 World Cup Group Stage 1-0 Loss
    30. Poland (1932) - 1973 Friendly 4-0 Loss
    31. Germany (1929) -- 2002 World Cup Quarter-finals 1-0 Loss
    32. Italy (1927) - 2006 World Cup Group Stage 1-1 Draw
    33. Argentina (1920) -- 1999 Friendly 1-0 Win
    34. England (1909) - 1985 Friendly 5-0 Loss
    35. Italy (1906) - 1934 World Cup 7-1 Loss
    --Current Portugal Rating (1905)
    36. Netherlands (1904) - 1998 Friendly 2-0 Loss
    37. Mexico (1902) - 2011 Gold Cup Final 4-2 Loss
    38. England (1881) -- 2008 Friendly 2-0 Loss
    39. Mexico (1879) -- 2012 Friendly 1-0 Win
    40. Mexico (1876) -- 2005 World Cup Qualifier 2-1 Loss
    --Highest Ever USA Rating (1871)
     
    Suyuntuy repped this.
  11. Susaeta

    Susaeta BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 3, 2009
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is simply phenomenal. Thank you.
     

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