News: A Long, Strange Trip - 2018 DCU Season Thread

Discussion in 'D.C. United' started by morrissey, Feb 21, 2018.

  1. Eastern Bear

    Eastern Bear Member+

    Feb 27, 1999
    Great Falls, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    A healthy Hamid does move the needle for this team, but if he misses 5-6 games like he did the past two years, we're back to the bench and I don't believe he warrants all the money spent. The delta between Ousted howlers and Hamid missed games is not all that much. Good news is that Hamid will finally have a serviceable back-up in Ousted so if he does miss time we still have a good chance of winning. Hamid's previous back-ups were all horri-bad.

    All moot if we don't improve the defenders in front of our keeper.
     
  2. JayRockers!

    JayRockers! Member+

    Aug 4, 2001
    It’s a loan, Bill should play. Much more agreeable than a permanent transfer back.

    Unfortunately he probably won’t walk in to the starting spot for a few weeks.

    Thx,

    Jay!
     
  3. UnitedBorn

    UnitedBorn Member+

    Dec 7, 2015
    301
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Chicago Fire waived Kevin Ellis.

    Seeing as how nobody loves picking the mls scrap heap like DC United and we only made one move I wouldn’t be shocked if we reached out.
     
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  4. shawn12011

    shawn12011 Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Reisterstown, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    also Tony Tchani
     
  5. OldTownFan

    OldTownFan Member

    D.C. United
    United States
    Nov 17, 2017
    Tchani plays a position where we are stacked. Ellis, on the other hand, . . .
     
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  6. shawn12011

    shawn12011 Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Reisterstown, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Where is the DC United vs Orlando Rainbows thread???
     
  7. Heist

    Heist Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Virginia
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I agree. When I saw Ellis was released I tweeted @DCUnited immediately. They should at least be talking to him about coming in.
     
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  8. Dizi

    Dizi Member

    Feb 13, 2015
    Club:
    DC United
    I would be hyped if DC manage to secure Ellis for two reasons: ambition & accountability.

    Going through the effort to acquire somebody who's been undervalued by his previous club can reap benefits. I'd love to see DK show a bit more ambition when deals like this fall on his lap (especially after a lukewarm end to this transfer window).

    I'd be excited knowing that DC staff are making incremental change to upgrade all positions and create a competitive roster. Getting Ousted to challenge Clark (and Hamid to challenge both of em), Rooney to push Mattocks, Vytas signing...all of these show that they are willing to hold underperformers accountable. If the team shows weakness, they want to shore up that area and create genuine competition for spots.
     
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  9. Heist

    Heist Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Virginia
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Rooney to push Mattocks, so far has been a huge flop for Mattocks. He's been absolute garbage since Rooney arrived. Rooney has been quite good, of course, so the move worked on that level.

    Ousted wasn't really to challenge Clark. I always thought Ousted was the clear starter over Clark even though both have been meh... they've both kinda met or just barely didn't meet my expectations for them. I don't think Hamid is to challenge them either. He's the clear starter over Ousted, even if he's a little rusty. He should be anyway.

    If they want to push underperformers at all positions, they need to pick up an actual starting right back and a starting CB.

    There is, however, good competition at all the midfield positions and that seems to be pushing those guys to do well.
     
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  10. Dizi

    Dizi Member

    Feb 13, 2015
    Club:
    DC United
    #1960 Dizi, Aug 10, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2018
    Yeah, I guess I wasn't clear. When you notice a weak point in the squad you can either (1) make a coaching adjustment to help them improve; (2) acquire a new player who's better able to play the position; (3) do nothing.

    For many years DC has been willing to do a plenty of #3 when players performed poorly on the field. There was a whole lot of, "We like this group..." coming from Ben and Kasper.

    I don't think they are capable of #1 so it's been encouraging that they at least see the flaws and try to buy people who will contribute to improved results.
     
  11. UnitedBorn

    UnitedBorn Member+

    Dec 7, 2015
    301
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    These signings aren’t pushing anyone. We signed the guy from Portland because Kemp was hurt not because they want to push Mora.

    Mattocks was just a warm body until Rooney was in the fold.

    Don't let them fool you, this is the same DC United. If they were really ambitious we would have bought in a legit LB like SKC did not a MLS cast off.
     
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  12. Dizi

    Dizi Member

    Feb 13, 2015
    Club:
    DC United
    I thought I clarified my language above. How about "replace" not "push".
    Or if you prefer "push to the bench" ;).


    Trust me I'm not foolish enough to think that this will solve all our problems. But the the prospect of getting Ellis excites me (in the short term).

    After they entered the season w/o a competent strikeforce I expected failure and it's happened. Our defense has been so bad that "cast offs" like Vytas, Hamid, and Ellis would have drastic impact on making the team watchable.

    They won't make the playoffs but I would like to get some measure of enjoyment from watching the remaining games.
     
  13. Kenobi

    Kenobi Member

    Jul 11, 1999
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    OTOH, Ellis has worn out his welcome at his last two teams in pretty quick succession. If it looks like a locker room cancer and smells like a locker room cancer...
     
  14. Dizi

    Dizi Member

    Feb 13, 2015
    Club:
    DC United
    Interesting

    I wonder what caused the problem.
     
  15. SoccerEsq

    SoccerEsq Member

    Aug 28, 2000
    Maryland SoccerPlexish
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We don't have to outrun the bear. It turns out that we really just have to outrun Montreal and Philadelphia over the last two months of the season.

    And here's how it could (not unreasonably, I think) happen. This assumes we continue to play as if we're really a 2.00 points per game on average team at home which is where we stand now after having played, admittedly, only a handful of home games. Since none of the teams in this particular part of the playoff hunt are particularly good on the road--ok, some are horrendous on the road--we *should* really benefit with the large number of relatively weak road teams we get to host at Audi field.

    For me, probably the biggest risk is that our home-field advantage ends up being nerfed by the effort of having to play 5 games more than Montreal does.

    Apologies for a long post, but I hope it was worth it. Also, apologies if I screwed up any of the math--I did my sincere best, and I thought some data-based optimism might be fun. Finally, I know this is a simplistic approach, but it doesn't seem too crazy.

    (Numbers in parenthesis show the points per home game for home teams and points per away games for away teams. Games are listed in projected difficulty order, easiest to hardest.)

    New England (Home PPG 1.75, Road PPG 0.80)
    Projected Total Points 46 (5th place)

    (Current Points 29, Projected Future Points 17)
    • Home Win: Orlando (0.55), Montreal (0.58), Chicago (0.75), Philadelphia (0.84)
    • Home Draw: Portland (1.30)
    • Road Win: Toronto (1.40)
    • Road Draw: Philadelphia (1.55)
    • Road Loss: Atlanta, (1.92), LAFC (2.00), DC United (2.00), Salt Lake (2.42), NYFC (2.67)

    DC United (Home PPG 2.00, Road PPG 0.57)
    Projected Total Points 44 (6th place)

    (Current Points 18, Projected Future Points 26)
    • Home Win: Minnesota (0.30), Orlando (0.55), Montreal (0.58), Chicago (0.75), Toronto (0.75), New England (0.80), Philadelphia (0.91), NYFC (1.09)
    • Home Draw: Portland (1.30), NYRB (1.60)
    • Home Loss: Dallas (1.70), Atlanta (2.09)
    • Road Loss: Chicago (1.17), NYRB (2.33), NYFC (2.67)
    For me, the key is whether we will get the full 3 points at home against an NYFC team that's gotten a result in just over half their road games.

    Montreal (Home PPG 1.83, Road PPG 0.58)
    Projected Total Points 43 (7th place)

    (Current Points 29, Projected Future Points 14)
    • Home Win: Chicago (0.75), Toronto (0.75), Columbus (1.09), NYFC (1.09)
    • Home Draw: NYRB (1.60)
    • Road Draw: Toronto (1.40)
    • Road Loss: Philadelphia (1.55), New England (1.75), DC United (2.00), Salt Lake (2.42)

    Philadelphia (Home PPG 1.55, Road PPG 0.91)
    Projected Total Points 39 (8th place)

    (Current Points 27, Projected Future Points 12)
    • Home Win: Minnesota (0.30), Montreal (0.58)
    • Home Draw: New England (0.80), NYFC (1.09), KC (1.36)
    • Home Loss: NYRB (1.60)
    • Road Draw: Seattle (1.40), Orlando (1.42)
    • Road Loss: New England (1.75), DC United (2.00), Columbus (2.00), NYFC (2.67)
     
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  16. benni...

    benni... BigSoccer Supporter

    Nov 23, 2004
    Chocolate City
    Let's use this win to push us forward. Well done boys.

    I thought Acosta would suffer from Rooney, but he appears to be the biggest beneficiary. Well done son.
     
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  17. Heist

    Heist Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Virginia
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Even this game was a "long strange trip"
     
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  18. pr0ner

    pr0ner Member+

    Jan 13, 2007
    Alexandria, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    After tonight, United are 5 clear of San Jose for the Wooden Spoon, and with a win on Wednesday could get as high as 8th in the East.
     
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  19. OldTownFan

    OldTownFan Member

    D.C. United
    United States
    Nov 17, 2017
    Here's a thought on improving the defense.

    Geoff Cameron is free to leave Stoke.

    https://sbisoccer.com/2018/08/report-werder-bremen-rayo-vallecano-interested-in-geoff-cameron

    D.C. United needs a centerback and vocal leader of the defense.

    D.C. United is top of the allocation list following Portland taking L.A.'s top spot to acquire Villafana.

    https://www.mlssoccer.com/allocation

    If the expiring of the transfer deadline still allows for this, I know I am not the only one who would like to see it happen! What is not clear to me is whether Stoke is releasing him from his contract and, if so, does that make him a free agent who is not subject to the transfer window. Anyone know the answer? Thanks!
     
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  20. pr0ner

    pr0ner Member+

    Jan 13, 2007
    Alexandria, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Do you really want to pay DP wages to Geoff Cameron? Because that's what it would take to land him.
     
  21. Hedbal

    Hedbal Member+

    Jul 31, 2000
    DC
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We should see a lot of substitutions for Wednesday's match vs. the Timbers. I would not expect to see much of Rooney, for example. He might still be in the ice bath.
     
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  22. DecadeOfDCU26

    DecadeOfDCU26 Member+

    May 2, 2007
    DC
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'd almost guarantee Vytas starts...2 days off between games and he knows all of Portland's players.
     
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  23. GumbyG

    GumbyG Member+

    DC United
    Mar 22, 2007
    Chesapeake, VA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As of this moment, 43 points gets us into the playoffs. That's 22 points in 11 home games, 3 away.

    Yes! Not north of 1.5M, but a guy who has started at CB, RB, and DM in the premier league for many years, even if he's started on the downslope, is worth DP money to us, given how bad our defense needs an effective organizer.

    I love spending other people's money. :)
     
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  24. UnitedBorn

    UnitedBorn Member+

    Dec 7, 2015
    301
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't know where are odds are but if stats say we have a decent chance at the playoffs this year its worth considering bringing him on for the remainder of this season and next too.

    We have the open DP slot sitting there to be used and are tops in the allocation ranking. Don't we still have a decent amount of TAM/GAM (not sure which one buys down new players) to offset?

    Then, you just have to hope for DP level play.
     
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