I was just coming in here to post something similar. I love this thread. It's amazing. Pleasure to read.
The other question about Landon at CAM: are his chances being negated by the fact he's just not as good there? Or because the formation and personnel tend to shift? Probably some of both. How do folks think we are going to line up on Monday?
I think its both. Donovan is too happy staying back and recirculating the ball these days - a la Reyna for the Nats back in the day - rather than aggressively looking for the killer pass. Also he and Keane's pass accuracy in the final third have been poor this season compared to their usual standards. Plus they seem to have lost their secret communicator rings that tell them exactly what the other one is going to do before he does it. Then you have Zardes making the wrong runs, clogging passing lanes, not knowing when to pull defenders away.
You are right that we would need more stats to flesh out this analysis. For one thing, all "chances created" aren't created equal. Some are are great chances, some barely chances. A better stat would be "expected goals" created which takes into account where the shot is created. That stat is used for a lot of the better soccer analytics. Getting a pass to a teammate in the goalbox is worth almost a goal, but if you set up a shot from 25 yards it is worth maybe a 1/8th goal in "expected goals" terms. Plus as you say, you would like to adjust for quality of opponent, home vs away, and add in defensive stats as well. However, in defense of what we have: Quality of chances created: The fact that LD is creating over twice as many chances from the forward position is large enough of a difference that it isn't likely to be explained away by the quality of the chances. Also the quality of the chances created from the forward position are likely to be higher quality, just because LD will tend to be closer to goal when creating them. So if we looked at expected goals I would 'expect' to see an even larger difference in favor of LD at forward. Quality of opponents differences: If you have enough games with LD in each position the quality of opponent tends to even out. Steffans stats are based on about 600 minutes at forward (about 13 halves) and 500 min at CAM (11 halves). That isn't a big sample size but a lot of these comparisons are coming from within the same game. We start out with LD at midfield, then move him up top the second half. Almost every time we've done this we've created more shots in the second half against the exact same competition . Lack of defensive stats: We should probably be more worried about our offensive production than about our defense. There are only two teams in the league giving up less than a goal per game: SKC and LA. OTOH our offense is just average - our 1.53 g/gm scores is 8th in the league and just 0.03 g/gm out of being 11th in the league. Since our main need is more offense I would think you would need a very strong argument to dismiss the gigantic difference in chances created by LD at forward vs midfield. Actually the best argument against these stats for those on the LD should be at CAM side of the argument is that
Everything you say is logical, but I think the choice of where Landon should play is not so cut and dry. One of the reasons I advocate analyzing game states is it answers the question of whether or not Landon will create the same number of chances if he starts games up tops rather than moves there in 60th minute when the game is more open. Remember--Landon did start his first few games up top after the Mexico match and everyone was universally underwhelmed. This goes back to my analysis of the last part of 2013--what do we think has changed that we expect the Keanovan tandem to regain lethality it hasn't shown since last summer? As to defense...you only need one goal to win if you can stop the other team from scoring. Both earlier Portland games are instructive. Each time we moved LD from midfield, we lost midfield shape and our opponent's danger men punish us almost immediately. In both cases, we gave up a 1 goal lead and went on to tie.
I don't see any similarity between how Donovan plays and how Zidane played and how Riqulme played (or possibly still plays). Those two made their reputations on what they could do with the ball at their feet. They could run at other players and make those players look like traffic cones. Yes, Landon can make an occasional wonderful pass, but otherwise doesn't do well with the ball at his feet. Zidane could dominate a game, at the highest level, through his ability to control the ball. Landon could be a difference maker but I don't recall him ever being dominant.
I'm comparing Landon to those players in regards to the roles they played for their teams, not their respective quality. Yes, Zidane and Riquelme were good on the dribble but that's not usually how they assisted or scored. What allowed them to dominate games was good movement off the ball and simple square and back-passes that relieved pressure and created space before delivering a final killer ball. It's what Beckham used to do for us and it seems to be the role LD is playing this season (hence the bulking up. He's also been working on taking players on and added little feints and stuff to his game). His weakness compared to those players is that he can be closed down much more effectively with a high press in a crowded midfield (see SKC). He overcomes this usually by combining with the players around him and moving into space. Is he good enough play this role against Brazil in a World Cup like Zidane did? No. But he's proven pretty effective against the likes of RSL and Portland. Here's a good example of what LD contributes defensively and how he can restart attacks by passing thru midfield: Passing-wise, I would also say that Landon can make a wonderful pass pretty much anytime he has time, space and runners. Jump to the 31st minute in the clip below: LD plays the ball back to Opare to relieve pressure, then a second later drops a perfect ball onto Man U's penalty spot from the right wing.
I agree that Landon does drop back to pick up balls and initiate the attack. He did an excellent job tonight on the left doing that. I would like to see more games like tonight, however.
Or maybe it should be: The only important formation for the Galaxy: -----------------Sarvas---------- ------------Juninho-------------- ----------AJ---Omar------------- Bench: Leonardo
So, skydog, was that one of the anomalous LD plays well and scores from the left? I wish we played teams as lethargic as Seattle was every time! It sure does wonders for my mood the next day.
Haha, it was. I thought about this as soon as he scored. I think it was Donovan's 2nd goal from the left mid position in the last 5 or 6 seasons with the Galaxy. Hard not to score with all that wide open space and Yedlin seemingly completely uninterested in playing defense.
LD/RR on the left and Ish/Gargan on the right looked to be the best parings we have had on the wings all season. Those individuals have played well at times but this was the first time we looked solid on both sides going forward, covering back and interchanging when needed. It also pushes Robbie more central which we really need in the final 3rd. Hope Bruce gives this time to grow. Can definitely see AJ on the right when we need two bigger CBs and Duni on the left for cover. No more Sarvas or Husidic on the wings. Just doesn't work. Zardez or BJIV if necessary.
I think people should be careful about overgeneralizing from this one unusual game. Not unusual for us to squash Seattle of course, but unusual for us to have sooooo much room to work with in the final third. What is true is that we had our best 11 on the field for the first time this season. But I don't think yesterday's game showed that we've solved the formation issue. LD has been historically underwhelming when he plays left mid so I would hesitate to declare that he is suddenly going to shine in that position based on one good game.
RE: Our best 11. Don't disagree, but remember that two of our four starting defenders on opening day are still injured. I think Duni is behind RR and playing out the string with us. But Gargan v. Riley? Not sure that Riley is not an upgrade, although Gargan has certainly exceeded my expectations.
I love Gargan. Given his 'journeyman defender' resume he exceeded my expectations as well- by a lot. He may not be the most gifted technically but he is more effective than many of his more gifted peers (why does the name 'Yedlin' pop to mind?). He doesn't get beaten often --Franklin allowed a lot more crosses to get in -- and is aggressive and brings a physicality that our team needed. Offensively he gets forward with the ball quite a bit and combines well with our midfield. In the final third he may not have killer pass skills (he leaves that to Sarvas) but when he is attacking the wings he shows composure, gets his head up, and doesn't resort to blind hopeful crosses. He even has a couple of nice cut-back moves to free up space in the box and get behind the defense. Even if all were healthy I do think we had our best back four out there against Seattle (sorry, Duni!).
Agreed about Gargan. I think Riley was fine, as well, but based on their careers, I didn't expect a whole lot from either of them. Gargan is much better than I gave him credit for.
Yeah, I don't think we'll see LD at LM all the time; I think Bruce put him there for this match to negate Yedlin.
While you are probably right, it was as others have stated, great to have our best 11 on the field. And regardless of whether it was a 4-4-2 or a 4-2-3-1, it was the best I think we have looked all season. Landon's play reminded me of a playoff game against Seattle in Seattle (2009 or 2011?), where Bruce played Beckham on the right and he busted his but getting up and down the field and playing effective defense. I don't remember a lot of details but it remember thinking that it was David's career best game for the Galaxy. I am not saying this was Landon's best game but its the best I remember in years.
What was also amazing about Landon out left last night was his willingness to track back. And I mean sprint back. His commitment to defending against Yedlin was awesome last night. So much for him being old and washed up. The whole team's commitment to that was awesome last night.