A Brave New World in World Cup Allocations

I will try to more fully explain why I advocate these reforms in subsequent posts, but for now let me set out the format that I advocate.

First, Conembol and Concacaf should be combined into a Pan-American Football Confederation ("PAFC") for World Cup allocation purposes, if none other. Second, the OFC would be merged with the AFC as well in an Asia-Oceania Football Confederation ("AOFC").

With the above changes, we would be left with an even number of confederations (4), each of them comparable in terms of the number of members. The AOFC would be the largest with 57 members, while the PFAC would be the smallest with 45 members. (CAF has 54 and UEFA 53 members).

The World Cup allocations would then be divided between these 4 confederations, in a format that would seek to increase the number of inter-confederation matches while giving lesser sides and confederations a greater opportunity to host meaningful tournaments, as follows:

UEFA: 8 guaranteed spots plus 8 wild card teams
PAFC: 4 guaranteed spots plus 8 wild card teams
AOFC: 2 guaranteed spots plus 8 wild card teams
CAF: 2 guaranteed spots plus 8 wild card teams

TOTAL: 16 Guaranteed spots*; 32 Wild Card teams, competing for the next 16 spots

The 32 Wild Card teams would be placed in 8 different groups, each group hosted by a different confederation, with each group having 4 teams. 2 teams would advance from each group, with these games all played at the same time (e.g., in November/December of the year preceding the World Cup).

The hosts for the first 4 groups would be the top team not qualifying directly from each of the 4 confederations. The hosts for the other 4 groups would be chosen by FIFA, giving preferential treatment to confederations with the fewest guaranteed spots (AOFC and CAF), but in any case, all groups would have at least one wild card representative from each of the above confederations and the top 2 teams in each group would qualify.

In this format, the superior confederations would benefit by having potentially more teams in the World Cup, provided they can prove they are deserving of having more such teams. The lesser confederations would benefit by, first, seeing more of their sides get the chance to compete in meaningful matches against good teams from the better confederations and, second, by getting to host meaningful tournaments involving such teams more often. In the process, as they improve, they will also be able to earn more places in the final tournament than the ceiling from the quotas they have now.

*The guaranteed allocation for the hosts of the World Cup would be charged against the guaranteed spots from the applicable confederation.

 

Applying what I have advocated above to Brazil 2014 qualifying, using current group standings and FIFA rankings to fill in the gaps, you might have ended up with the following teams with guaranteed spots in the World Cup and the following 32 teams to play in the 8 groups I mentioned.

Direct Qualifiers:

UEFA: 1- Spain 2- Germany 3- Italy 4- Netherlands 5- Belgium 6- Switzerland 7- England 8- Russia
PFAC: 1- Brazil 2- Argentina 3- Colombia 4- USA
AOFC: 1- Japan 2- Iran
CAF: 1- Ghana 2- Algeria

Wild Card Teams:

UEFA: 1-Portugal 2- Bosnia 3- Croatia 4- France 5- Greece 6- Russia 7- Ukraine 8- Sweden
PFAC: 1- Uruguay 2- Chile 3- Ecuador 4- Costa Rica 5- Mexico 6- Peru 7- Venezuela 8- Honduras
AOFC: 1- S.Korea 2- Australia 3- Jordan 4- Uzbekistan 5- Oman 6- Qatar 7- Iraq 8-Lebanon
CAF: 1-Nigeria 2- Mali 3- Tunisia 4- Egypt 5- Burkina Faso 6-Cameroon 7- Senegal 8-South Africa

The groups could look something like the following, 2 teams advancing from each of them:

Group 1: (UEFA host)
1- Portugal (host) 2- Mexico 3- Jordan 4- Burkina Faso
Group 2: (PFAC host)
1- Uruguay (host) 2- Croatia 3- Senegal 4- Lebanon
Group 3: (AOFC host)
1- S.Korea 2- Greece 3- Peru 4- Mali
Group 4: (CAF host)
1- Nigeria 2- Ukraine 3- Costa Rica 4- Oman
Group 5: (AOFC host)
1- Australia (host) 2- Russia 3- Venezuela 4- South Africa
Group 6: (CAF host)
1- Tunisia (host) 2- France 3- Honduras 4- Iraq
Group 7: (AOFC host)
1- Qatar (host) 2- Bosnia 3- Chile 4- Egypt
Group 8: (CAF host)
1- Cameroon (host) 2- Sweden 3- Ecuador 4- Uzbekistan

If this format was followed, and assuming the wild card sides and group mentioned above, how many teams do you think would qualify to the World Cup in total from the various confederations?

 

I have to look at your idea more closely, even though I prefer mine and don't agree that it would make the qualifying process overly cumbersome. The "wild card" matches in my proposal would all be played in the same period over a couple of weeks between say November/December. The value of more teams from lesser confederations getting tested against teams from other confederations, and hosting these events, would be tremendous however.

Btw, looking at what you have stated and using FIFA rankings, Iran would get a direct spot from the AFC as Iran is ranked #2 in the AFC, behind only Japan. Iran would get a direct spot based on AFC World Cup qualifiers as well since Iran topped its group.

 

Incidentally, your proposal is very Euro-centric to say the least. While I don't mind giving UEFA 8 guaranteed spots, the number of wild cards have to be equal between the confederations or combined confederations. Otherwise, what we get is a system that favors UEFA just by virtue of the math and odds and that is not right. UEFA already has too many privileges.

 

My proposal would allow UEFA to settle the issue on the pitch as well, but in a format where they don't have a mathematical advantage. UEFA deserves a greater number of guaranteed spots (8 in both of our proposals), but when we get to teams proving their merit on the playing field, their should be no greater allocation to UEFA compared to the rest. In my proposal, each confederation has 8 wild cards and if UEFA is deserving, it can have even 16 teams in the World Cup. But there is no arbitrary, pre-determined, ceiling on the number of sides from the other confederations either and they will all have an equal chance to prove how deserving they are on the field. In other words, their final allocation is settled on the field, not based on who is done what in the past. In the process, however, the lesser confederations will gain a lot of valuable experience and exposure that will improve their chances to doing better in the future, fulfilling other objectives in holding a World Cup.

 

What I have proposed is giving AOFC (Asia+OFC) only 2 guaranteed spots! Anything above that, they would have to earn. What you propose is to put an arbitrarty ceiling on how many teams they can qualify to the World Cup regardless.

Besides, as the largest and most populous combined confederation, with the largest markets to develop for the game, it only makes sense to try to promote the game in AOFC instead of intentionally keeping a discriminatory system in place.

As I have said, in my system, the issues are settled on the field and, overtime with a far larger sample of competitive games between confederations, we get a more accurate ranking system as well. The present FIFA ranking system is clearly skewed against the AFC.

 

I can't take your objection seriously!

Its like saying that we should simply give teams a direct World Cup ticket based on their FIFA rankings. Otherwise, why should say Group A in UEFA qualifying give an equal chance to a top ranked team and a low ranked team?

And that is leaving aside the well known fact that FIFA rankings, as they are constituted now, are heavily skewed against the AFC. Otherwise, there aren't that many people who seriously believe that Montenegro (in your example) is better than Japan! Or that all these UEFA teams ranked above the likes of South Korea, Australia et al are really any better than them.

I will be honest: the argument were are having is reminding of how it must have been trying to convince a southern person to break down segregation and allow blacks to attend public schools! While I don't favor reverse discrimination, I certainly don't support a system that tries to entrench already existing discrimination either. In my system, you have 16 guaranteed spots with half of them given to UEFA! Only 2 to Asia + OFC. Everyone else would have to compete and earn their spot to the World Cup on the playing field and, no, there wouldn't be a ceiling saying that only a few AFC teams could make the World Cup regardless of how they might perform head to head against these supposedly better ranked teams.

 

Incidentally, if my proposal was in place, we would have essentially 2 World Cups. One where most of the world would be involved in, with games being hosted around the globe in 8 different countries involving 32 (wild card) teams, with equal representation from all 4 corners of the world. And, afterwards, another World Cup where something resembling the world's best 32 teams would compete for the grand prize.

 

My proposal doesn't really add any more games to the calendar. Certainly not for the top teams. And even the wild cards will be playing only 3 games each over a 2-week span in November/December, compared to the 2 playoff games that they have right now in UEFA and other games elsewhere.

 

Read carefully the format I suggested. Its not home and away. There will be 8 groups, in 8 different countries, each group with 4 teams from 4 different confederations. Each group hosted in accordance with what I wrote earlier.

 

Your proposal is 2nd best, but I still prefer mine. There are rather subtle mechanisms in my proposal that will help lesser confederations and sides see their game improve over time. And which will make the World Cup a more universal event, with many more sides and fans having something to cheer.

 

The host of each of those groups will have an advantage, but for the first 4 groups, the hosts are the best team that does not directly qualify. Hence, while an advantage, it is still better than giving that side a direct guaranteed qualification, which is what you have right now for these teams. As for the other 4 groups, the hosts would be from lesser confederations, helping more countries enjoy the benefits and share in the excitement of hosting meaningful tournaments even if involving merely 4 teams. This aspect is meant to be a form of "affirmative action" program to help lesser confederations and sides improve overtime.

As for playing 3 matches being too much, I don't agree. Those who directly qualify don't play any more matches. In any case, 3 is only one match more than the 2 you have in the alternative, inter-confederation, playoff scenario by almango or in what you have in the intra-confederation playoffs which currently exists in UEFA and the AFC. In fact, the AFC playoff teamhas to play more games and that has been the case since 1998.

For the Conembol teams, on the other hand, who right now don't have preliminary qualifying but rather long unitary qualifying process involving all their 10 teams, as I have said, my preference is to see their system like the rest by having their qualifiers merge with Concacaf's. To take care of the "distance argument" (which applies with greater force to the AFC as the largest continent by itself even without counting the OFC), the preliminary qualifiers in this merged Pan American confederation can be in zones that take into account distant issues.

 

In light of the recent proposals by Blatter and now Platini, I wanted to bump this thread up. I still believe the best solution down the line in terms of allocating World Cup berths is the one I have outlined here in this thread. In the short run, however, we might go with the proposal that emerged in the discussion with almango and others as outlined here.

 

There are 3 things about this proposal that I like the most:

1) Each time, we get 8 different countries which have qualified as wild cards, host a small group consisting of 4 teams.

That spreads around some of the advantages of hosting important tournaments without being taxing the abilities of the countries involved since each of them would be hosting basically their own team and 3 others.

2) While UEFA would still have a greater number of guaranteed spots (8 compared to 2 from AFC/OFC, 2 for CAF, and 4 for Conembol/Concacaf), in the wild card stage where teams qualify not based on past pedigree but performance on the field, the mathematical odds are all equal with each confederation (or combined confederation) having an equal number (8) of wild card teams.

Thus, basically, we have 16 direct qualifiers (with the host counted against the allocation of the confederation from which the host comes from) and 16 other teams chosen from among 32 teams divided into 8 intercontinental groups, each group having one team from each of the confederations (with Conembol and Concacaf as well as AFC and OFC's allocations merged into one).

3) We get a lot more intercontinental matches, thus both improving the rankings for the various teams by giving us a lot more data to work with as well as improving the abilities of the teams from the lesser confederations who will get to play a lot more teams in meaningful matches from other confederations.