48 teams - 12 groups of 4

Sadly, all the talk around the 48 team World Cup seems to point to 16 Groups of 3.

This is, frankly, ugly.

So, what better way to waste my time (and, unless you stop now, yours as well) than by trying to get a workable 12 groups of 4 thing out there.

Key criteria.
12 groups of 4 (preferably seeded like this time around - that is, reasonably well)
Keep teams from same group apart as long as possible.
Prevent (at least as much as in the current 32 team comp) meaningless matches - or matches where you don't need to try.
Make it as much like it is now, noting that some things have to be different.

I think I have met all these - sadly there could be teams that play 8 matches.

Like now there are twice as many games as teams (96 in all, assuming a 3rd place playoff).

So, lets get time wasting.

Firstly we have the groups of 4.
They are just like they are at present except for two differences.
One - there are 12 of them.
Two - rather than being "grouped" into four pairs (for the second round) they are grouped into four trios.
So, the third match day for groups A,B and C is the same. D,E and F finish on the same day, GH and I then J,K and L.

As now, the top two teams advance - to the ROUND of 24.

The round of 24 sees the follow matches
Day W - A1 v B2, B1 v C2 and C1 v A2
Day X - D1 v E2, E1 v F2 and F1 v D2
Day Y - G1 v H2, H1 v I2 and I1 v G2
Day Z - J1 v K2, K1 v L2 and L1 v J2

Now the magic happens.

Each day sees three winners - and each set of three teams is ranked according to their results over the four matches they have played. For their round of 24 match, the result after 90 minutes is what counts (so a win in extra time is a draw for ranking purposes). The teams are ranked in the usual way - points, GD, GS, discipline, FIFA ranks. However, if two teams are equal on points and both saw their round of 24 matches go into extra time - a win AET trumps a win on penalties.

This now creates 4 rankings - W1, W2 and W3 and the same for Days X, Y and Z.

Each top seed gets a bye, while the other 8 teams play in the QUALIFICATION ROUND.
That sees W2 v X3, X2 v W3, Y2 v Z3 and Z2 v Y3.

Then it's quarter finals as before.
QF1 - W1 v winner Y2/Z3
QF2 - X1 v winner Z2/Y3
QF3 - Y1 v winner W2/X3
QF4 - Z1 v winner X2/W3

Semi-finals see QF1 v QF4 and QF2 v QF3. This would be the earliest that two teams from the same initial group could meet (and only if they were ranked 1st and 3rd in their section).

All up (including final and 3rd place) 96 matches.

Some thinking and notes.
-Yellow cards would be cancelled either after the round of 24 (I think better) or the qualification round (some may feel fairer). If it is after the round of 24 then seeded teams get an extra advantage in terms of keeping players later on.
-It is almost impossible for a team to have a "pointless" match in terms of seeding for the qualification round - you are unlikely to not try in your round of 24 match and its only in really unrealistic cases that you would be sure of being seeded before your third group game. Effectively every match matters at least as much as now.
-You will note that a team that finishes 2nd in its group COULD be seeded ahead of the group winner even if both get past the round of 24. That's most likely if they ended the group stage equal on points, in which case it doesn't seem wrong to reverse that after an additional match.
-Getting a seeded position after the round of 24 would seem to be vital in terms of player rest - hence teams would try in all matches.

The complications of this system would seem to be:
-Fans needs to "reset" their travel plans twice - once after the group stage (when they find out if they are 1st or 2nd) and then after the round of 24 (when the seeding determines their fate). I don't think that's a massive additional burden - although it might be tricky to follow your team through the whole tournament - especially in a big country (or countries).
-I haven't tried to schedule this in full - so I don't know how you would fit in all in - the 3rd group matches and Round of 24 would look very much like now, and the qualification round would eat into rest days.
-Getting a seeded position after the round of 24 would seem to be vital in terms of player rest - hence this scheme may not be favoured by those who place a high rating on that side of things.
-96 matches is (I think) another step up in terms of logistics. Although, multiple hosts (and some major countries) could surely cope.

Also, my initial thought was to seed the 1st teams in each Group Section and then play a system which would have two Rounds of 16 (the first with eight byes) like - if A1 and B1 and ranked best in groups A/B/C then A1 and B1 get Byes, C1vA2 and B2vC2 (if A1 and C1 best then B1vC2, A2vB2 - if B1 and C1 best then A1vB2, A2vC2) and then start crossing from there - but it actually seemed weirder somehow (and the above looks neater in its descriptions). It has exactly as many games however. It might be preferred , but would also be far more likely to see teams not needing to try in their third group match.

Anyway, if you've got this far - you clearly have too much time on your hands.

This is the end of the post. I'll mock up a tournament as well, just to show how it might work.

J

 

Anyway - why not double down on this lunacy and see what it looks like.
Assumptions - WC2026 is played in the USA (they can't even be bothered to pretend they can stand Casa Trudeau anymore, and Canada fail to qualify - quelle horreur.)

Confed allocations are what I think I read somewhere else - with some playoffs or something.
Anyway - it's the following (AFC8, CAF10, CONCACAF 6+1, CONMEBOL 6, OFC 1, UEFA 16). I selected the betterish teams from these areas somehow and then seeded them thusly
POT 1 - USA, ARG, BRA, GER, CHI, BEL, FRA, COL, POR, URU, ESP, SUI
POT 2 - POL, WAL, ENG, ITA, CRO, MEX, PER, CRC, EGY, NED, ISL, IRL
POT 3 - SVK, SEN, CMR, IRN, BFA, TUN, COD, KOR, NGA, GHA, SWE, CIV
POT 4 - MAR, JPN, PAN, AUS, KSA, UZB, HON, UAE, JAM, GUA, QAT, NZL

In addition to these seeds (usual rules only 2 UEFA teams), the top 4 seeds get put into groups A (USA - as host), F G and L - to give them an "advantage" in the seeding race.

So here are your 2026 groups.
Group A - United States, Cameroon, United Arab Emirates and England
Group B - Spain, Egypt, Guatemala and Sweden
Group C - Belgium, Australia, Congo DR and Mexico
Group D - Colombia, Uzbekistan, Croatia and Burkina Faso
Group E - Uruguay, Senegal, Iceland and Qatar
Group F - Argentina, Italy, Honduras and Ghana
Group G - Germany, Korea Republic, Morocco and Peru
Group H - Chile, Tunisia, Republic of Ireland and Jamaica
Group I - France, Poland, Iran and New Zealand
Group J - Switzerland, Nigeria, Panama and Wales
Group K - Portugal, Slovakia, Costa Rica and Japan
Group L - Brazil, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia and Côte d'Ivoire

Standard structure 1v2, 3v4 then 1v3, 4v2 and 4v1 and 2v3 (so United States v England on the 3rd day - I'm already getting to like this).

Lets run a blandish set of results to get our group standings.

J

 

Group results went like this (1st - 2nd) Not giving out GD but it's used.
England (6) United States (6)
Spain (7) Sweden (7)
Belgium (9) Mexico (6)
Colombia (6) Uzbekistan (4)
Uruguay (7) Senegal (6)
Argentina (9) Italy (6)
Germany (7) Peru (5)
Republic of Ireland (7) Chile (7)
Iran (7) France (5)
Panama (9) Switzerland (6)
Slovakia (7) Costa Rica (5)
Netherlands (7) Brazil (4)

As everyone is really interested in one obvious result - Burkina Faso defeated Uzbekistan - but Uzbekistan advanced.

Looks like my computer is a Concacaf fan.

Anyway - Round of 24:
Sweden on penalties over England
Mexico d Spain
United States d Belgium
Colombia d Senegal
Italy d Uruguay
Argentina d Uzbekistan
Germany d Chile
France d Republic of Ireland
Peru on penalties over Iran
Costa Rica d Panama
Slovakia d Brazil
Netherlands d Switzerland

(i'll assume that no matches were settled by extra time)
This gives (points, but GD decided all differences)
Section W: Mexico (9) - United States (9) Sweden (8)
Section X: Argentina (12) - Colombia (9) Italy (9)
Section Y: Germany (10) - France (8) Peru (6)
Section Z: Slovakia (10) - Netherlands (10) Costa Rica (8)

So qualification:
Italy d United States
Colombia d Sweden
France d Costa Rica
Peru on penalties over Netherlands

Quarter Finals:
France d Mexico
Argentina d Peru
Germany d Italy
Colombia d Slovakia

Semi Finals:
France d Colombia
Argentina d Germany

3rd:
Colombia d Germany

Final:
France d Argentina

J