I would modify that to "provide the minimum amount of acceptable losses to the individual owners." Most major league owners aren't in it to get rich, but to bask in the reflected glory of owning a successful team. To be the Big Man On Campus, so to speak. The reason MLS is built on SEM underpinnings is to help keep the owners from spending themselves into oblivion. It's why SEM are not training wheels and are not ever going away. It's to save the owners from themselves.
I buy into that 28 number as the stop to the current expansion plans. There comes time when despite there being multi bidder willing to pay million of dollar just for the right to play stops. That point comes to allow those who brought into MLS, no longer can or wish to live on expansion fees. Instead they want to make it a valved investment by restricting access and building valve in each franchise. This can be seen in the NFL where expansion is considered non-exist. And we all now how the MLS wishes to be the new NFL.
Yet the NFL is currently having "unofficial" expansion conversations, mostly focusing on Mexico City, Toronto, and Europe. Logically, 28 seems to be a very brief stop because they are still four short of the NFL (and most likely the NHL by the end of the week). To be viewed as a legitimate "major league," MLS will drive to have the same presence as the Big Four.
I think it will pause at 28 only because no one else will be ready at the moment. If a few months after team 28 is accepted, say San Diego has a St. Louis like resurrection, I can't see the league telling them no. Or Detroit, Phoenix, Sacramento, hell, if an Indianapolis came out of nowhere like Nashville kinda did. I would definitely have a stoping point if I were MLS, but no way they say no to a ready candidate like these. 4 more at least, no time too soon as long as their seriously ready IMO.
I'd say MLS is going to be very picky for 28 and beyond. They were quite picky with 25&26 (see Sacramento). They let Precourt keep 27 because they were picky about who took over in Columbus. But, it's hard to see Precourt buying into the league in Austin if he weren't in already. I wouldn't be surprised anymore by whom the league says no to in the future.
I don't think what other major leagues have has anything to do about it. There's nothing magical about 30-32 (where the other leagues are), just as there's nothing magical about 20-24 (where the other leagues were when the NASL went from 12 to 24 teams in two years - to get where the major leagues were). I think MLS will expand when the numbers make sense. The long term benefit of adding a market outweighs the cost of slicing the revenue pie by another slice.
It's funny how the Columbus Crew saga parallels that of the Cleveland Browns back in 1990s. The NFL was put in a position to where they had to expanse when Art Modell moved the original Browns to 't Baltimore. I believe that if it wasn'The uproar was so bad that the only solution was to bring the Browns back. Now we see the same uproar over the Columbus Crew with Anthony Precourt.
Agree 100% that any pause at 28 will be due to the fact that #29 is not ready to go. How I see the pause factors. 1. #29 not ready to go yet. If soccer city had passed, or if Detroit was gonna buold a SSS downtown, they would be in already. 2. Great time to take stock. Tons of recent additions (8 from 2017-2022). Tons of new stadia (11 in same span). But spots are getting short. Four more? Six max. 28 is a good pause point in terms of # of teams, schedule, geographical balance, and such. Can go divisions if you want. 4x7 = 28. 4×8 = 32. Does every region deserve another team? How to arrange the divisions? Tampa will be impacted by how Orlando & Miami fare. Will footy in Florida thrive? If Austin (& Dallas/Hou) struggle, does it doom SA? Or other high temp cities? If Crew/Cincy becones a thing, is MLS more inclined to give SA a team? Time to find out before all the spots are full. Each region may be down to 1 team left. Or less. Are there other potential 2 team towns out there (Chicago, SF/Oak/SJ, DC/Bal)? Plus, if MLS has a favorite who is not ready yet (Detroit, SD, Phoenix, Vegas) you want to give them some time to step up. But not so much that other cities feel they have no shot (Sacramento, SA, Tampa, Indy, Raleigh, Charlotte). Heck, time for MLS to decide if there are any must-haves left (I suspect Detroit and St. Louis are the last).
Paul TenorioVerified account @PaulTenorio 23m23 minutes ago Garber said league will introduce idea of growing beyond 28 teams. I've heard 32 teams has definitely been discussed informally within and around the league.
24. FC Cincinnati (19) 25. Inter Miami ('20) 26 Nashville SC ('20) 27. Austin FC ('21) 28. ST Louis 29. Sacramento Republic 30. Indy XII 31. Tampa Bay Rowdies 32. San Antonio
I thought about them too I like Indy XI because they already play in an NFL facility (you how much Garber love the NFL) I like Raleigh/Durham over Charlotte and San Diego (if they can get a consistent ownership group together)
Indy 11 don't currently have an ownership group with deep enough pockets for MLS. Wouldn't count out Detroit either. That would be a really good market for MLS to be in, and would provide another potential rival for Chicago, Minnesota, the Ohio teams, TFC and Montreal..
I think the bigger issue with Raleigh is the stadium. If Malik can get the stadium deal done, I don't see any problem adding the necessary investors.
San Antonio? Really? They're not putting 4 teams in Texas when there are obvious gaps elsewhere, especially a city right next to Austin. With Cincinnati and Columbus both in MLS, Indy Eleven aren't a desirable expansion market, even if they had the right kind of ownership group and stadium plan (which they don't). Phoenix and Detroit will both be part of a fully expanded MLS, so take your pick of who to chuck out of that list.
Not shocked at all. Surprised it happened so quickly and out even before the official Columbus/Austin announcement. But 28 was always BS. Garble was gonna pause at 16. Reading tea leaves into it: 1) Columbus/Austin = done (duh). 2) St. Louis is in as #28. 3) Someone else, or maybe more than one someone, is pretty close. 4) Possibly this is the payoff/agreement with San Antonio to not sue MLS over the Austin fiasco. I WILL be shocked if SA is not touted as a great market by MLS schills once we get into candidates. A near lock for 29/30. Still, am surprised they abandoned pause talk so quickly. If I had to guess at 29-32 and look into what MLS would prefer: #29 = SA #30 = Detroit #31 = Another west team (PHX, SD, SAC, Vegas). Could bump Detroit for #30 if they drop the ball. #32 = open. West coast losers + Tampa, Raleigh, Charlotte, Indy + some other who may emerge (Chicago #2, CLE, SF, BAL). Gotta have a horserace. Then we will get 34 talk.
I think SA is IN and has been for a while. They shut up PDQ after a meeting with MLS honchos after the Austin fiasco. Could have sued & did not even complain after that. How it manifests itself may be open. An expansion team (in the next 4) or a move if PSV bungles Austin. But I think this has been a done deal for a while. Before we get to 32, SA has a team. SA fits the profile. Growing fast with limited pro sports competition. Great ownership. Nashville fits. Austin fits (save the ownership parts). Cincy & St. Louis lack the rapid growth, but have limited competition & ownership. And proximity to Austin is a plus, not a minus. MLS gets this now. See: Cascadia, LA derby, NY derby, TFC/Mon, and Clb/Cincy. Detroit & PHX are the only other 5 mil markets without a team and have to be highest on MLS' list. Though if they are willing to go to 34 (and I bet they are), they can let the best of the mid-sizers get another two (or four) to push them along.
Don't get too excited. I think he is prepping us for 30 not 32. Yes, the Soccer Don did state that current expansion maybe not stop at 28. But he also mentioned that there are currently 6 good bids. Austin, St. Louis, Sacramento, San Diego, Detroit and Phoenix. Of these contenders I only see 4 real viable candidates. These being Austin, St. Louis, Sacramento and Phoenix. It has been rumored they are looking at a re-alignment into three ten club conferences.
Interesting. 30 works schedule wise (as does 32/34 and even 36), but bit cleaner: 2xconf (18) + everyone else once = 38. Still, I do not believe for a second 30 is the end game. Just a temp stop. 32 minimum with even money to 34/36.