25 and 26 Poll

Its a very easy answer

1. Phoenix. Not only is it the largest market by most metrics, it is also the fastest growing in terms of projected people added over the next 25 years. It may add more people in the next 25 than the entire Sacramento metro has today!
2. San Diego. MLS has made it clear that they really really like when "big 4" teams relocate for reasons other than fans failing to support the team. Maybe hoping lapsed Charger fans find an alternate means of fueling their sports addiction. It worked for Seattle with the NBA Sonics leaving. Also, largest metro area with 1 "big 4" sports team or less.

I don't see what any group can do to jump these two.

 

I think Phoenix is a long shot. Suburban stadium location surrounded by soccer fields, a la Denver and Dallas, in a market that seems oversaturated with pro teams due to middling support.

My .02 cents

 

A long shot is an overstatement. Let's run through the options:

Argument for Phoenix

1. Phoenix. Shovel ready, largest metro area of bidders, also projected to add the most people over the next 25 years according to the US conference of Mayors. Will be a top 10 metro area in the US in that time frame (only candidate which can make this claim). Also, furthest from existing MLS market (expands MLS map, doesn't siphon support).
Yes, it is a suburban stadium, but knowing what MLS knows, would MLS pass on: LAG, NYRB, Denver, Dallas, Chicago, or New England?

Solid contenders:

2. San Diego. A lock if soccer city's approved. Most visionary stadium plan. The least congested sports market of major metros.

3. Sacramento. Great stadium, most successful D2 team and strong ownership group. Was a lock, but it just feels they are somehow slipping and will be left out. Probably a lock for 27. I wonder if MLS is hesitant to put two teams in California at the same time. If not, this is the only threat to Phoenix getting in this year.

Questionable:

4. Detroit. Would be solid, but it's unlikely the jail fail plan is approved. Like Phoenix congested with teams, but teams are better supported. Similar in size to Phoenix metro, but slower population growth.

T5. Tampa/San Antonio - Stadiums are city owned upgrades of USL stadiums of questionable quality and capacity. Close to existing MLS markets, in states with 2 MLS teams assuming Miami.
----- Tampa was previously contracted, Tampa has worse questions about fan support than Phoenix. Orlando is a smallish market, and these would be the closest MLS teams outside of LA and NYC. Tampa is suburban, playing in St. Petersburg. Tampa is the largest DMA among bidders.
----- San Antonio has great ownership group in the Spurs. Not a congested sports market. Houston and Dallas are huge markets that don't need to worry about another team in the area. Population growth is through the roof for every major city in Texas. Still doesn't feel like there is momentum this year.

7. Cincinnati. Tremendous fan support for USL team. But smallish market, coupled with tenancy in an old NCAAF stadium controlled by University keeps it out.

8. Nashville - A lot of buzz lately. Would expand the MLS map. But still waiting on stadium plan. No history of club soccer makes it questionable they would leap anyone above in this round.

9. Raleigh - Said they would provide several potential stadium sites to MLS to get their feedback. MLS wants to be sold on which bid is the best, not do the homework of the bidders!!! Just my opinion, anyways, no news since, or hype surrounding bid.

Fugetaboutit

10. St. Louis. Probably 1 or 2 if vote had passed. Now, it would have been better if they never asked. Would MLS expand to a market that rejected it, when other city's and mayors are rolling out the red carpet?

11. Charlotte - County approved funding, city refused to consider but left door open if they are given more time. No news since, likely out of the running for this year at least.

12. Indianapolis. No stadium, wants public funding, city pol's finds laughable. DOA

 

Denver, Dallas and Chicago would not be in their current locations if they were entering today.

Phoenix is a congested sports market with mediocre supported teams- including the USL team until this season. Tampa's fan support has been way better, for longer than Phoenix's, so I wouldn't pan them. Attendance history an issue for Phoenix.

MLS has stated they want downtown, urban core stadiums. YOU cant just brush that aside. Will MLS allow Phoenix (and San Antonio) in with their suburban stadiums? Who knows. But its not their preference, so you cant automatically give it a green light. This is a potential issue for Phoenix.

Phoenix has a big market that is growing fast. Good demographics too. Did you account for the growth of the other markets when proclaiming them top ten in 25 years? All-in-all, market size is not the defining criteria. Far from it. All the candidates are good sized. MLS is looking for good size markets that will add to their TV viewership and attract strong corporate/sponsorship interest, and will put asses in the seats. You don't know the level of corporate support for Phoenix. Just because its a big market doesn't mean sponsors are lining up to support the team. Esp with four other pro teams in town (that aren't killing it by any stretch of the imagination).

San Diego isn't visionary- its a land grab with a MLS stadium as a carrot. Similar to Detroit

(plug for my team)- Sac ain't slipping. They are just ready.

 

I don't know what the location is like for Phoenix, so I can't comment on it, but the San Antonio location is ideal for a car-oriented city, just off a very large freeway ramp next to the area's largest interchange. It's honestly easier to get to for most people than downtown.

 

I'd agree on Denver and maybe, maybe New England. They'd take Dallas, Chicago, NYRB, a LA Galaxy any way they could get them.

I can't tell if you are talking in general or only about soccer. You can't denigrate Phoenix fan support and defend Tampa. Phoenix wins NFL, MLB, Tampa wins NHL. Coyotes are a disaster, so are the Rays. In soccer, the Rowdies had better support last year, Phoenix is ahead this year. They are comparable in overall fan support at worst.

For the suburban stadium to be an issue, there have to be multiple urban stadiums approved. Sacramento is one, and San Diego likely. That's it. I don't think MLS picks two California teams this year. If I am right, which other group is ready? And if San Diego soccer city is rejected and the Detroit jail fail fails, what do you think MLS will do, pick only Sacramento?

*I didn't forecast Phoenix as a top 10 market, it was the US Conference of Mayors as I mentioned before.
http://www.newgeography.com/content/004153-moving-south-and-west-metropolitan-america-2042

Yes, market size isn't the only criteria. Stadium also matters. There are 4 near final stadium plans (Phoenix, Sacramento, Tampa, San Antonio), and 2 announced proposals not yet rejected (Detroit and San Diego). I think the Detroit plan will be rejected. If not Detroit is top 2 in place of Phoenix.

Thus of the 5 Metros likely to have approved stadiums this year, Phoenix is the only one:
...more than 125 miles from an MLS team
...in a State with no MLS team
...not in California, Texas, or Florida
...projected to be a top 10 market in the next 25 years*

TV ratings and attendance are important. To maximize TV ratings, MLS has to expand to populous, under-served areas. Only Phoenix accomplishes this among the MLS ready bids this year.

San Diego is not a land grab. They will pay market price for land, cover all costs, and it's up for a public vote. The land value is what people will pay for it. Nobody is offering more, or has a detailed plan on how they'd use it. The low price for land quoted by some only kicks in if someone constructs an NFL stadium next door (I'd want that protection too). They aren't evicting people by eminent domain or chopping down forests, or asking for money. I'd tend to agree on Detroit, its complicated with land swap, and subsidy..

Maybe. I just feel like San Diego hurts their chances. and I don't think MLS picks two California teams this round. I ranked them 3rd.

Finally things change. Maybe Nashville or Raleigh propose an urban stadium. Maybe I'm wrong on Detroit failing or San Diego passage. Maybe St. Louis makes a miraculous comeback. But as of now, knowing what we know today, hard to make a case against Phoenix at least being 3rd behind two California teams, meaning not a long shot from your first response.

 

sactown is shovel ready, sd still has to approve of the carrot, you see the difference is that sac can start tomorrow if called up, sd...yeah. phx are they shovel ready? no. Tampa is iirc.

so sactown/tampa replace miami for now they seem to be 1a and 1b as of right now. All the rest have issues and are behind the 1.

 

Phoenix is shovel ready. The vote in Tampa only granted the St. Pete's city council the authority to negotiate on the stadium expansion. They are technically not shovel ready, but are likely to be approved. Anyways, just need to be shovel ready by year end when MLS makes its decision. Nobody is going to start construction before being granted a team.

If all markets had approved stadium plans, Detroit would almost certainly get in this year as they are likely the richest ownership group in the 2nd biggest market. But the stadium, land swap, jail plan, 300 million subsidy, etc. has to be approved since they have no plan B. That's the rub with Detroit

 

As of today, it seems that Tampa Bay, Sacramento and Cincinnati are ready to go and have deep pocketed owners. Miami is not ready to go and may never be ready. As for the future, MLS S will likely go with the two biggest markets that are prepared to enter the league, which probably means Phoenix and San Antonio with St. Louis, Nashville and San Diego on the outside looking in.

 

shovel ready means they have a stadium already and have approval for expansion or building of new grounds. they already have 80+% of the work already done, the thread is about 24-26 not 27-36. 24-26 all could start playing today if need be, TB- give Orlando a rival and replaces Miami for now and Sac are rivals of San Jose.

then you have the next set Cinc and San Antonio, Cinc tons of rivals all around to pick from and SA completes Texas backed by the Spurs already have a stadium.

then the rest sd will take years to build if it gets approved its more a development deal than sports complex deal. Phx is ahead of sd, SD is in the STL zone till shovels hit dirt which is only one step away from the Miami zone.

 

Good points. Lets run through the stadiums in decreasing likelihood of construction receiving final approval this year.

1. Cincinnati. Nippert already built. Not clear if MLS will accept old NCAAF stadium.
2. Sacramento. Said they could break ground tomorrow, long before Phoenix did.
3. Phoenix. Said they could break ground tomorrow.
4. Tampa. Need to negotiate upgrade with the city council. The Rowdies are offering to cover costs, except maybe "infrastructure like sewage".
5. San Antonio. Spurs and City have not determined how costs will be split between city and team.
6. San Diego. A November special election is planned to determine Soccer City plan.
7. Detroit. No date set on vote to give control of Gratiot jail site to the Detroit bidders
8. Nashville. Have not announced plans
9. Raleigh. Have not announced plans
10. St. Louis. Voters rejected stadium funding plan
11. Charlotte. City refused to consider stadium funding plan
12. Indianapolis. Past stadium upgrades were rejected, no new plan since

 

Just like everything else being discussed, this focuses too much on stadia. Assuming the ownership group has the financial wherewithal, pretty much any of these cities could put together a stadium that MLS finds acceptable.

The real question is whether the assumption of financial wherewithal is valid for these groups. These guys need to write two checks with nine numbers to the left of the decimal point, one for the expansion fee and one for the stadium. Some of them, the question isn't whether they can write the check, but will they write the check, and future checks needed to operate the team. Politico is full of stories about what happens when rich guys take up a hobby.

The next question is whether the current owners can work with the proposed owner. These guys are going to be your business partners after all. After that is the interest of the owner in the sport.

When it comes to where they play, NYCFC promised a SSS when they joined the league. Maybe someday, they will get one. If Yankee Stadium is good enough, Nippert is good enough and Al Lang will be good enough. The rest of the list will be fine, too, if the guys are willing to write that check with 9 digits to the left of the decimal point.

Lots of subjectivity to the things that matter. I've given up trying to handicap this thing.

 

To your point that I focus too much on stadia, I was previously told I focused to much market size so I added a dimension. I also note above which are asking for money, so that goes to your point of who is willing to cut checks. I concede I haven't looked up the owners wealth since many of the groups have multiple owners. But in terms of the owners generating buzz (good quality in an sports ownership group), the same suspects lead: Phoenix, San Diego, Tampa, Sacramento, and recently Nashville, plus Cincinnati's USL team.

Anyway I look at it, Phoenix tops, one of the California team is probably next. I think Detroit is the only other bidder that could make the top 2 this year, but they are also asking by far for the most money, in the most complicated public/private partnership.

You can't compare the league's standard with NYC to Cincinnati. NYC is by far the biggest US market, the one of the financial and media capitals of the world. MLS would do anything to be in NYC, where it doesn't need to be in Cincinnati or really any of these expansion city's today, especially in the current environment of multiple viable bids.

 

looks like sac moves back to
number one!

 

My point would be that market size and stadiums are no substitute for guys that you can work with that write big checks.

 

One thing that people on here are forgetting.............the league's media partners will have a say as well......they pay the bills and fuel the leagues growth.

Certainly Sac Town and Cincy are great stories for us hard core fans, but how will they resonate with the casual fans? Will they draw eyeballs? Even when the Kings were actually good, they were barely on national TV...........these things do play a factor....

 

what about SD? that is in LA right? some interesting numbers...

#11 Tampa-St. Petersburg
(Sarasota) Florida Citrus, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota 1,908,590 (1.664%) WFLA-TV (NBC) (WTTA(MyNetworkTV)), WFTS-TV (ABC), WTSP (CBS), WTVT (Fox), and WWSB (ABC)

#12 Phoenix
(Prescott) Arizona Apache (southern third), Coconino, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai 1,890,100 (1.648%) KNXV-TV (ABC), KPHO-TV (CBS) (KTVK (Independent)), KPNX/KNAZ-TV (NBC), and KSAZ-TV (Fox) (KUTP(MyNetworkTV))

#13 Detroit Michigan
Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, St. Clair, Sanilac, Washtenaw, Wayne 1,853,030 (1.616%) WDIV-TV (NBC), WJBK (Fox), WWJ-TV (CBS) (WKBD-TV (CW)), and WXYZ-TV (ABC) (WMYD(MyNetworkTV))

#20 Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto California
Amador, Calaveras, Colusa, El Dorado (west), Nevada, Placer, Plumas, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Sierra, Solano (east), Stanislaus, Sutter, Tuolumne, Yolo, Yuba 1,379,770 (1.203%) KCRA-TV (NBC) (KQCA(MyNetworkTV), KOVR (CBS) (KMAX-TV (CW)), KTXL (Fox), and KXTV (ABC)

#21 St.Louis Missouri
Bond (IL), Calhoun (IL), Clinton (IL), Crawford, Fayette (IL), Franklin, Gasconade, Greene (IL), Iron, Jefferson, Jersey (IL), Lincoln, Macoupin (IL), Madison (IL), Marion (IL), Monroe (IL), Montgomery (IL), Pike, Randolph (IL), St. Charles, St. Clair (IL), St. Francois, St. Louis (city), St. Louis, Ste. Genevieve, Warren, Washington (IL), Washington 1,215,570 (1.06%) KDNL-TV (ABC), KMOV (CBS), KSDK (NBC), and KTVI (Fox) (KPLR-TV (CW))

#22 Charlotte North Carolina
Alexander, Anson, Ashe, Avery, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba, Chester (SC), Chesterfield (SC), Cleveland, Gaston, Iredell, Lancaster (SC), Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Richmond, Rowan, Stanly, Union, Watauga, York (SC) 1,189,950 (1.038%) WBTV (CBS), WCNC-TV (NBC), WJZY (Fox) (WMYT-TV(MyNetworkTV)), and WSOC-TV (ABC) (WAXN-TV (Independent))

#24 Raleigh-Durham
(Fayetteville) North Carolina Chatham, Cumberland, Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin, Granville, Halifax, Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Mecklenburg (VA), Moore, Nash, Northampton, Orange, Person, Sampson, Vance, Wake, Warren, Wayne, Wilson 1,153,680 (1.006%) WNCN (CBS), WRAL-TV (NBC) (WRAZ), WRAZ (Fox) (WRAL-TV), and WTVD (ABC)


#27 Indianapolis Indiana
Bartholomew, Benton, Blackford, Boone, Brown, Carroll, Cass, Clinton, Decatur, Delaware, Fayette, Fountain, Grant, Hamilton, Hancock, Hendricks, Henry, Howard, Johnson, Lawrence, Madison, Marion, Miami, Monroe, Montgomery, Morgan, Owen, Putnam, Randolph, Rush, Shelby, Tipton, White 1,086,310 (0.947%) WRTV (ABC), WTHR (NBC) (WALV-CD (Cozi TV)), WTTV/WTTK (CBS) (WXIN), and WXIN (Fox) (WTTV/WTTK)

 

#28 San Diego California
San Diego 1,065,700 (0.929%) KFMB-TV (CBS), KGTV (ABC) (KZSD-LP (Azteca)), KNSD (NBC), and KSWB-TV (Fox)

#29 Nashville Tennessee
Allen (KY), Bedford, Benton, Cannon, Cheatham, Christian (KY), Clay, Clinton (KY), Coffee, Davidson, Decatur, DeKalb, Dickson, Franklin, Henry, Hickman, Houston, Humphreys, Jackson, Lawrence, Lewis, Logan (KY), Macon, Marshall, Maury, Monroe (KY), Montgomery, Moore, Overton, Perry, Pickett, Putnam, Robertson, Rutherford, Simpson (KY), Smith, Stewart, Sumner, Todd (KY), Trigg (KY), Trousdale, Van Buren, Warren, White, Williamson, Wilson 1,011,570 (0.882%) WKRN-TV (ABC), WSMV-TV (NBC), WTVF (CBS), and WZTV (Fox) (WUXP-TV(MyNetworkTV)/WNAB (CW))

#31 San Antonio Texas
Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, DeWitt, Dimmit, Edwards, Frio, Gillespie, Goliad, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Karnes, Kendall, Kerr, Kinney, La Salle, Lavaca, Maverick, McMullen, Medina, Real, Uvalde, Val Verde, Wilson, Zavala 938,660 (0.818%) KABB (Fox) (WOAI-TV/KMYS (CW)), KENS (CBS), KSAT-TV (ABC), and WOAI-TV (NBC) (KABB/KMY


36 Cincinnati Ohio
Adams, Boone (KY), Bracken (KY), Brown, Butler, Campbell (KY), Clermont, Clinton, Dearborn (IN), Franklin (IN), Gallatin (KY), Grant (KY), Hamilton, Highland, Kenton (KY), Mason (KY), Ohio (IN), Owen (KY), Pendleton (KY), Ripley (IN), Robertson (KY), Switzerland (IN), Union (IN), Warren 863,800 (0.753%) WCPO-TV (ABC), WKRC-TV (CBS) (WSTR-TV (MyNetworkTV)), WLWT (NBC), and WXIX-TV (Fox)

 

There are only two such markets left: Miami and Detroit. After that, any market which attracts broader attention nationally or internationally will be because of the owner and/or the fans.

 

I wonder about Sacramento when you make a point like this. Was the owner of the Republic railroaded out of the bid? If so, I wouldn't want to work with the bidding group if I was an MLS owner. Anyone know what really happened?