Feel free to take a look at my ongoing Big Fat Expansion Sheet. Might give you some thoughts on who is more 'deserving' of an expansion team. Louisville, Jacksonville, Vegas and Virginia area all have great capacity scores for expansion. But for my money, one of the top middle-markets is Charlotte. I'm a little biased though...
What do you mean? NFL? Carolina Panthers. NHL? Carolina Hurricanes (Raleigh). We are college-sports state, but a growing pro-sports state, mostly because of people moving here from out-of-state.
I would argue that the markets are wholly unique. But yes, I agree that its unlikely that both get MLS expansion teams. I could see it end up coming down to a comparison of bid packages from Raleigh vs. Charlotte for the spot. Hmm, if Charlotte were to get a team, I doubt I would become a fan of theirs. Probably just stick with DC and the RailHawks.
I don't consider them one market, but they're close enough and politically tied to one another that casual ties are there to be had. My cousin lives in Raleigh and her hubby is a big Panthers fan, for instance, so it's entirely probable that if one market gets an MLS franchise they'll be considered a team for the whole of NC and possibly adjacent markets. It's all a question of how many new eyes would tune into MLS on TV because of the product.
Or the Loon Palace gets built in St. Paul...followed by The Don awarding an expansion team to the Wilfs to play at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
To address one of your notes: yes, Riverside's TV is included as part of LA. For sports purposes, the Inland Empire is definitely the part of the Los Angeles market. There's no way somewhere that big (4.3 million people in the CSA) would be left out of all of the five biggest leagues if this were not the case--other MSAs this size have teams in every sport. The next biggest MSAs without teams are half the size, and San Juan (2.6M) and Las Vegas (2.3M) are unique cases for different reasons. Also, the 49ers are listed in the San Francisco MSA; last year they moved to Santa Clara (San Jose MSA). I've mentioned elsewhere that CSA is a better measurement for sports markets, citing Los Angeles-Riverside, Salt Lake-Provo, MLS markets I know very well. I'm familiar with San Jose-San Francisco, as well. However, there are those who feel strongly to the contrary--most specifically that DC and Baltimore are not a single unit for sports. It highlights a core problem when looking at expansion, that census statistics and media markets are imperfect. Geography, transportation systems, and history influence each market pretty heavily; heck, the Red Bulls haven't had much reach within their own CSA, so an even narrower definition may be more accurate for their case.
There are two reasons why it does not have a major professional sport. 1. The population only exploded to 4.3 million since the 80's. The 80's was the tail end of any major expansion by any major league outside of the MLS. 2. The population isn't very concentrated. The land area is the size of a small state, and has a total population density smaller than Indiana. Of the 4.3 million only 1.5 million are urban. While there is a high concentration within these areas, the areas are relatively spread out from each other. In order to have a successful major league team you need both a high concentration and a high population. If you look around typically, there are exceptions, major league teams are in highly concentrated metros with about 2+ million people. So with the Inland Empire you either have the high population with low concentration, or you have the high concentration with sub-optimal total population. So in the end there are just better more established markets out there for major league sports that also give those leagues a larger national footprint.
It's not like you're predictions are any better.... I don't believe the Bengals' owner is part of Cincinnati's ownership group and Cleveland was never on the Crew's radar for a possible relocation..
Cleveland should have been. Would have kept the team within driving distance and within the STH realm. Would have maintained rivalries and rooting interest and the owner could have made the case that this was the best way to achieve healthy financial status while not leaving an original teams fan base homeless. Also the city of cincy wants Fc cincy to play in Paul Brown stadium which means mike brown may become a partial owner (I just puked). Ofcourse all these predictions were made before Fc cincy even had a team and who the hell would have thought precourt would actually go full asshole on Columbus. Austin Texas will be a failure. Mark it down
Ill go further, an Austin stadium will not get off the ground. There will be no downtown Austin stadium. They would rather build parking garages, hotels, offices, and banks. San Antonio is a sooooo much better option. Im absolutely positive Austin scuttles this at the local government level. Its dead on arrival. The columbus owner is going to look awfully stupid here. Id love to see a team in Austin, but like i said, they will not get one inch of downtown real estate. not. one. inch. Unless they look north side where Amazon's HQ2 is rumored to be going, its not happening (which would be hypocritical of MLS's downtown requirements and would be a legitimate spitting image of San Antonio's urban anatomy with the stadium at a main artery of the city rather than downtown). Columbus needs a downtown location, lets find them one.