A New Zealand win would also have them clinch a spot in the OFC Final in addition to Fiji and New Zealand being eliminated
This topic is about teams qualifications. I saw several messages about squads situations in their group. Netherlands after a world cup final and a world cup semi final are in very complicated situation.
No ,this topic is about teams disqualifications. Netherlands not under any immediate threat of joining the list. summarizing and expanding on a few of the previous posts, for the next match day Tuesday 28th March : AFC: THAILAND is eliminated with: - a loss - a draw + Australia/UAE does not end in a draw CONMEBOL: VENEZUELA is eliminated with: - a loss/draw - Ecuador and Chile both do not lose BOLIVIA is eliminated with: - a loss/draw - Colombia + Chile wins OFC: FIJI and NEW CALEDONIA are eliminated with: - New Zealand win or draw PAPUA NEW GUINEA eliminated with: - a loss to Tahiti
Now, for the June scenarios in UEFA: LUXEMBOURG is out with a loss + Sweden win (LUX would max out at 13, plus Sweden win gives them and France 13 points, and if they both lose out, Bulgaria leapfrogs them both, Netherlands also gets to 13, AND both BUL and NED still have a match against each other.) ANDORRA is out with a loss + Portugal win (both Switzerland and Portugal would have at least 13 points) SAN MARINO is out with a loss + Northern Ireland win MOLDOVA is out with a loss + both Serbia and Republic of Ireland win LIECHTENSTEIN is out with a loss or draw MACEDONIA is out with a loss + Italy win GIBRALTAR is out with a loss + Greece win/draw
No. Mathematically they can still finish 2nd (on goal difference) and qualify directly or 3rd and qualify through the playoffs. (Realistically of course they really needed Qatar to take points off Uzbekistan today, so they're pretty screwed)
Not mathematically, but practically speaking, their chances are slim to none. The same with Qatar. I don't think there is any scenario which can see either finish among the top 2 but they have an exceedingly remote chance of finish 3rd and going into the playoffs if the Uzbeks lose all their remaining games and a bunch of other things happen...
I don't think they can even finish 2nd anymore. P.S. Actually, you might be right. They can theoretically still finish 2nd if S.Korea and Uzbeks lose all their games but tie their head to head encounter, while China win all their games. Then it would go to goal difference.
Two teams will drop out of OFC qualifying in the next two weeks. Solomon Islands and PNG will play two matches, if either gets four or more points they would advance to the final against NZ, while the other would be eliminated along with Tahiti. If both matches end in a draw then Tahiti will advance. Also if both get one win they will probably eliminate each other too unless one the scorelines is very one-sided. BTW, how stupid is this OFC qualifying round? Hugely unfair to Tahiti since they have to sit back and hope that PNG and Solomon Islands split their two matches! On merit, six points would often be enough , but not when the other 2 teams know what they need to do to advance and can adapt their strategy accordingly.
kind of a taste of what we will be getting when FIFA goes to it's 3 team group round robing 48 team world cup..
You can't expect 6 points to be enough to win a group of three teams that play 4 games. The only WCQ groups I remember with that format are in CONCACAF qualifiers for World Cups 2002 and 2014. Qualifiers for World Cup 2002 had these point distributions: El Salvador 10, Guatemala 5, and Belize 1 Panama 9, Honduras 9, and Nicaragua 0 In both of those groups the winner advanced and the second place team went to a playoff against a Caribbean team, which the Central American team won both times. Those groups were not winner-take-all, but CONCACAF had a winner-take-all group of three in qualifying for World Cup 2014 due to one team withdrawing. The rest of the groups were winner-take-all groups of four. Those groups were similar to what OFC does now in that CONCACAF scheduled the top two seeds in each group to play their last two games against each other, but there weren't any other teams alive who might or might not advance depending on how the top two seeds did against each other. The CONCACAF Champions League has groups of three teams that play 4 games.
As a matter of fact, you can also win the group with 4 points, if all the matches end in draws (in this case all teams would have same amount of points, and the final standings would be decided by the use of other tie-breakers).
in case of the 48 team, as at group phase it is only a single round robin, you could win the group with only 2 points, if all 3 matches of the group finish in draws.
So, we've heard how awful everyone claims the 3rd ranked teams are going to be. But now they're going to be getting draws against Brazil? J
For FIFA WC's, pots in the draw aren't made up by ranking position (at most only for seeded teams, where hosts despite being lowly ranked, they still get seeded), so, in some groups you may have 3 top ranked teams in some of them, and at the same time you can have 3 awful ranked teams in others. In both of this cases, the previously described scenario is perfectly feasible to happen (which by no means implies that a 48 WC will not have many dead rubbers taking part in it, as there will be lots of them).
I didn't realise you'd seen the regulations for the 48 team World Cup. Regardless - we have always had 1 seeded team in a group. J
Sure, but as 2026 might probably sure be in North America, where specially Canada, by being hosts sure will get seeded (they would get the honour of being the worst ranked ever, seeded team, in WC history, where even Qatar "looks" as to be a "powerhouse" compared to them), making theirs, a "hell" of a group for the extra "weaklings" this 48 team WC will have.....
I know. I didn't say it was impossible to win a group with 6 points from 4 games. I said "you can't expect," meaning that it's unlikely.
My main issue with the 48 team World Cups is the groups of three. I think groups of four work much better, and it make it more exciting when there's only a 50% mathematical chance of advancing. And 5 knockout stages seems like too many, as that increases the likelihood of more teams going out through a penalty shootout. Yeah, imagine if we ended up with a group like Canada, Iraq and Ethiopia. A lot of people will say it doesn't matter because the group stage will eliminate the weak teams, but that's what the qualifiers are supposed to be for.
Right but if the group has 3 fairly even teams then there would be a much better chance of six points being enough, if its accompanied with a good goal difference.