I figured out my mistake. I was thinking teams could get up to 12 points after November, but it's up to 18 points.
Venezuela is also out IF they draw vs Bolivia and lose to Ecuador AND: - Brazil does not lose to Peru - Argentina wins both their matches - Paraguay wins both their matches - Colombia beats Chile AND EITHER - Uruguay/Ecuador ends in a draw OR - Ecuador beats Uruguay AND Uruguay beats Chile I think this is about right. Again, there are other scenarios, but I haven't run them through yet.
CONMEBOL used to have four matchdays three years before a World Cup (such as 2015), six matchdays two years before a World Cup (such as 2016), and eight matchdays one year before a World Cup (such as 2017). This time there are eight matchdays in 2016 (of which six have been played so far) and six matchdays in 2017. Therefore CONMEBOL will be farther along after 2016 than they were after 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, or 2012. World Cup 1998 was when CONMEBOL started putting every team in one group.
So after the final 2016 matches, only Venezuela can be eliminated in the following match day in March. They'd need a loss + an Ecuador win/draw + a Chile win/draw + a Colombia win. Thailand can still get to third place if they lose, and OFC can't eliminate anyone until June.
A Venezuela loss would guarantee that they finish with at most 20 points, which is fewer points than Brazil and Uruguay have now. Ecuador and Chile would each get 21 with a draw or 23 with a win. Argentina has 19 points and hosts Colombia, who has 18 points. Either one of them would get to 21 points with a win. What I underlined should say "a Colombia win or an Argentina win, but not a draw." Thailand can't be eliminated on Matchday 6 on 23 March, but AFC has two matchdays in March, and Thailand could be eliminated on Matchday 7 on 28 March. In March, Fiji plays New Zealand twice, with the first game in Fiji. If New Zealand gets 2 wins or a win and a draw, Fiji and New Caledonia will be eliminated. Therefore New Zealand can clinch advancing with a win at home as long as they don't lose at Fiji first. Tahiti and Papua New Guinea play twice, and Papua New Guinea will be eliminated if they lose both games. At the end of 2012, the equivalent year of qualifying for World Cup 2014, 121 teams were still alive. Now there are 109 teams alive.
Argentina's next match is against Chile, so only one would surpass the 20-point threshold in the next match day. Hence the need for a Colombia win to eliminate Venezuela.
OK. I'm sorry for my mistake. I may do work on my own to list how many days teams had from their first qualifier to their last qualifier, from their first qualifier to when they were eliminated, and other information.
there are only three countries who had no goal conceded sonfar in the world cup qualifieres... germany, england and... uganda! Gesendet von meinem SM-G935F mit Tapatalk
CAF: No games CONCACAF: Nobody can be eliminated because the Hexagonal will have played 4 out of 10 games after March. UEFA: I don't know if anybody can be eliminated because the groups of 6 will have played 5 out of 10 games after March. CONMBEOL: If Venezuela loses to Peru, Bolivia loses to Colombia, and Argentina beats Chile: Venezuela would be eliminated because they could finish with no more than 20 points. Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, and Colombia would have more than 20. Ecuador would have at least 20, Chile would have 20, and at least one of them would finish with more than 20 because they have a game left against each other. That's for Matchday 13. I'm not looking at Matchday 14 scenarios yet. AFC: I don't think anybody can be eliminated on Matchday 6 on March 23. There could be teams eliminated on Matchday 7 on March 28. OFC: New Zealand and Fiji play twice. If New Zealand gets at least 4 points, they win the group, eliminating Fiji and New Caledonia, who play twice in June. Tahiti and Papua New Guinea play twice. If Tahiti win both games, Papua New Guinea will be eliminated. I don't think anybody other than Venezuela can be eliminated after one more matchday.
Currently, for Venezuela to get eliminated, all that needs to happen is that they draw and lose 2 points against Peru. Unfortunately, for their case, there are many teams in Conmebol very close to the 21 points, and there are lots of matches between them where one of them is going to get points, reaching the same 21 points that Venezuela can reach, or even more. Most other teams with just a couple, or even only one good result among the last 6 matches, would have Venezuela being left behind and out of the best 5 teams in the zone. For Venezuela, their only chance to go through, is to win all 6 matches (reach 23 points). Doing so, though, still might not be enough to actually make it. In Conmebol, since we started the all vs. all fixture in 1998, never a 5th placed team has finished the process with 24 or less points,to get through.
Venezuela blew a 2:0 lead and got a 2:2 draw hosting Peru. Venezuela's only chance is winning a four-way tie for fifth. To stay alive, Venezuela must win at Chile and have Ecuador vs. Colombia not be a draw. If Ecuador and Colombia draw, Venezuela would finish behind Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Colombia, and at least one of Ecuador and Chile, who play on Matchday 17. Thailand will be eliminated if they lose at Japan or if they draw at Japan and Australia vs. United Arab Emirates has a winner.
Last couple of my posts, I acknowledge that I got confused on regards to Venezuela and I was wrong (with tonights draw they still have a mathematic chance to go through). But, for next match dates, for both, Bolivia's and Venezuela's chances to go through, depends exclusively in winning every match left. A draw or a defeat in any of the remaining match-dates, automatically eliminates them. With a draw next match-date (round 14), the most points they would get at the end of the whole process, (asuming they win everything else), for Bolivia would be 20 points and for Venezuela would be 19 points. At present times, there are already 4 teams with 21 points or more (Brazil-30, Uruguay-23, Argentina-22 and Colombia-21), and both Ecuador and Chile, already have 20 points, and since for round 17 they must face each other, at least one of both is going to reach 21 points or more. So, if Bolivia loses or draws next match, they will be "mathematically" out, not depending on any other result next match date (same for Venezuela, btw).
Because of what time zone their game on Tuesday is in, Thailand faces elimination before the CONMEBOL teams. Bolivia plays before Venezuela.
Thailand is eliminated with: * loss vs. Japan Iran qualifes for at least the tiebreaker with * Win + Qater loss + Syria/Uzbekistan draw But I think that latter scenario is best saved for a different thread
Netherlands being 4th of group A at this right moment. Behind France Sweden and Bulgaria. Shows you again the depth in european qualifiers.
Portugal behind Swiss. Belgium is still far from being qualified and threatened by Greece and Bosnia-Hercegovina. Wales semi finalist of last euro behind Serbia and Ireland. Spain and Italia in same group. Czechs 4th behind Germany Northern Ireland and Azerbaidjan. Ukraine and Turcs 3rd and 4th of group I Denmark behind Poland and Montenegro.
So to recap for this week: AFC: THAILAND is eliminated with: - a loss - a draw + Australia/UAE does not end in a draw CONMEBOL: VENEZUELA is eliminated with: - a loss/draw - Ecuador and Chile both do not lose BOLIVIA is eliminated with: - a loss/draw - Colombia + Chile wins OFC: FIJI and NEW CALEDONIA are eliminated with: - New Zealand win
Hey man you're definitively posting in the wrong thread. This one is about teams being eliminated or very close to it. If you want to refer to a particular campaign, that till now has only played half of its whole fixture, with over half of the matches still to be played, post it where it belongs and not here (in any case though, their campaign is not representative of depth, but how bad of a moment they are going through as they also didn't make it to the past Eurocup, eliminated easily at qualifiers by 3 very average teams, there)