2022 World Cup Qualifiers CONCACAF

Discussion in 'CONCACAF' started by Robert Borden, Nov 1, 2018.

  1. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Finally getting some reactions from Federation presidents (translated)...

    Gerardo Paiz (GUA): I really don't know who made that decision. I can tell you that we only get notifications from Concacaf. I have only been at the head of the Federation for a month, so I imagine that decision was made in a Concacaf Congress.

    Yves Jean-Bart (HAI): We feel discriminated against in this decision.

    Manuel Arias (PAN): I didn't know anything about Concacaf making this change until this past weekend.

    Pedro Chaluja (former head, PAN): These changes were made back in 2017, that making the Hex would depend on FIFA rankings.
     
  2. dinamo_zagreb

    dinamo_zagreb Member+

    Jun 27, 2010
    San Jose, CA / Zagreb, Croatia
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    I am beyond shocked. Concacrap indeed. Worst and most ridiculous decision they have ever made. And they are known for making hilarious decisions.

    I think this was a move to get Canada in at last, like they will get enough points to get into top 6.

    Tiers, tiers, tiers, lets make all of our competitions have tiers. Hey, lets call FIFA and make 2026 with few tiers.
     
  3. nfitz

    nfitz Member

    Aug 20, 2007
    Toronto
    How? They are losing points after the Gold Cup, with only a win against Cuba, ranked around 190 or something, and a loss to lower-ranked Haiti.

    In the upcoming Nations League, they'll surely gain little by walloping Cuba twice more, as they are ranked so low ... unless they can somehow beat the USA ... twice.

    Canada's only hope is being best of the rest. Though perhaps that, and a home-away against number 4 is the best hope ...
     
  4. code1390

    code1390 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 25, 2007
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    All I can say is "WTF?"
     
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  5. LordofBrewtown

    Wigan Athletic
    United States
    Nov 19, 2018
    Thanks. IF anyone else finds anything, please post. I'm very interested to find more info on how transparent this was or was not.

    Really have to wonder if some kind of vote buying was involved here.
     
  6. LordofBrewtown

    Wigan Athletic
    United States
    Nov 19, 2018
    Yeah. This is going to be very interesting.

    I know you get more points by beating better teams; but, if I am Canada, Panama, etc. - I am making sure I schedule friendlies for any open FIFA dates/paying Puerto Rico, Turks & Caicos and Virgin Island to play if necessary to build up any points. You even have to wonder, why not pay off some 3rd world dictatorrship to throw out a D team against you and grab some rankings points.
     
  7. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The limit depends on how many competitions there are. CONMEBOL doesn't have a Nations League. For 2018, Concacaf used 22 matchdays. If you add in the 2 that weren't used between Round 3 and the Semifinals, the 2 that weren't used because of the 2016 Copa America, and the 2 that weren't used between the Semifinals and Hexagonal, you get 28. There are 10 per year, and Concacaf had 3 years available minus November 2017 for interconfederational playoffs. This time, Concacaf is starting in September 2020, which is 14 matchdays later than when they started WCQs for 2018. World Cup 2022 will be later in the year, but the last qualifiers between two Concacaf teams will be in October 2021, which is equivalent to when the Hexagonal ended on October 2017. If Concacaf wanted more matchdays, they could have made some teams start in March 2020 during the Nations League A finals, but then the FIFA Rankings used for seeding could not have included those games.
     
  8. LordofBrewtown

    Wigan Athletic
    United States
    Nov 19, 2018
    Thanks. I wasn't aware that CONMEBOL doesn't have a nations league. With all the talk always of combining the 2 confederations, it would be interesting to see a combined nations league even if COPA and Gold Cup are maintained.


    Regarding qualifiers, obviously, I'd prefer to see a different format, even if it required starting the qualifiers earlier/during Nations League finals somehow.
     
  9. code1390

    code1390 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 25, 2007
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I dont know why people think CONCACAF and CONMEBOL should combine. DC to Buenos Aries is 5200 miles. DC to Moscow is 4800 miles.
     
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  10. edcalvi

    edcalvi Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 1, 2005
    Nevada
    Distances within the AFC are probably farther.
     
  11. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes, but doesn't mean Concacaf should emulate the largest distances. A woman said it was a 9.5 hour flight from Philippines to Qatar.
     
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  12. edcalvi

    edcalvi Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 1, 2005
    Nevada
    I believe the greatest distance in the AFC is between Beirut and Manila of 5400 miles (I think Guam is farther).

    EDIT: I forgot about Australia. Sydney and Beirut distance is 8800 miles. That's huge.

    But I agree with you, I was just providing an example that it's still possible.

    Small countries in Concacaf will never have a chance to qualify. The US and Mexico have much better chances in a combined confederation.
     
  13. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #63 EvanJ, Jul 15, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2019
    Two of the last four World Cups had a first-time qualifier from Concacaf in Trinidad and Tobago in 2006 and Panama in 2018. What do you mean that "the US and Mexico have much better chances in a combined confederation"? The US and Mexico have an easier chance at qualifying in Concacaf. CONMEBOL have five of the top 16 in the FIFA Rankings and another team in 21st. The confederations get 8 spots combined, and USA is eighth in the FIFA Rankings combining them. USA is only 3 spots ahead of Venezuela, who won 3-0 at USA on June 9. USA fans say that playing CONMEBOL teams will be better preparation for facing top teams in the World Cup, not that qualifying would be easier if the confederations combined. In World Cup 2030 with 48 teams without USA hosting, USA should not have to worry about qualifying.

    FIFA doesn't know how to list countries. https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/qatar2022/preliminaries/#nccamerica says there are "42 participating teams." Even with the non-FIFA members, there's only 41, Clicking on "SEE ALL TEAMS" goes to https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/qatar2022/preliminaries/nccamerica/teams/ which has multiple mistakes. It lists Saint Barthelemy, which isn't one of the 41, and that makes 42. It lists Guadeloupe twice, and left out Saint Martin. If Saint Martin was left out on purpose, it would only be 41. of the non-FIFA members, Bonaire, Saint Barthelemy, and Sint Maarten are marked with a *; but French Guyana, Guadeloupe, and Martinique are not marked with a *. It's obvious that the * is for non-FIFA members, but that doesn't explain why it only marked some of them, and nothing on the page explains what the * means. The top of the page says "AFRICA" because there's a flaw that makes the first confederation in alphabetical order show up at the top of the page for every confederation. You can see that the first link has a # in it, and that means the page changes rather than going to a new page. Wikipedia pages have a clickable table of contents, and clicking on a link goes to that part of the page and makes # followed the section name go in the end of the URL.
     
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  14. edcalvi

    edcalvi Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 1, 2005
    Nevada
    I meant to say in a combined confederation it will be harder to see new countries qualify.

     
  15. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Update: this format has been acknowledged (and presumably authorized) by FIFA.

    ...so yeah, Nations League's gonna be cutthroat now :eek:
     
  16. LordofBrewtown

    Wigan Athletic
    United States
    Nov 19, 2018
    And friendly results could make the difference for the 5th and 6th spot in final rankings. Anyone have info on friendlies scheduled on open Nations League dates by Panama, Canada, Haiti, Curacao, Honduras, or Costa Rica?
     
  17. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    I don't see many friendlies have been announced. Honduras and Costa Rica are the only ones that could play friendlies in the September break. The rest of the teams listed have two CNL games.
     
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  18. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    I found one relevant friendly:

    Friday, September 6
    Costa Rica v. Uruguay

    That could be a good boost for Costa Rica.

    I'm sure we'll hear about more games soon.
     
  19. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Here are the new FIFA rankings for the top 15 of CONCACAF. Not much changed. Haiti moved to 10th. St. Kitts and Nevis moved up to 13th. Trindidad & Tobago and Nicaragua each dropped a spot.

    1. Mexico
    2. USA
    3. Costa Rica
    4. Jamaica
    5. Honduras
    6. El Salvador
    ==========
    7. Panama
    8. Canada
    9. Curacao
    10. Haiti
    11. Trinidad & Tobago
    12. Antigua and Barbuda
    13. St. Kitts and Nevis
    14. Nicaragua
    15. Guatemala
     
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  20. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Considering that Haiti moving up the glacial FIFA rankings into the Top 6 is a longshot, I'll be keeping a keen eye on Guatemala in particular - as in, I hope they overtake Nicaragua and get a top seed in the everyone-else tournament, 'cause I would hate to have them in our group.
     
  21. LordofBrewtown

    Wigan Athletic
    United States
    Nov 19, 2018
    Yes, that will be interesting. Haiti basically needs to win Nations League to qualify for the Hex. For the teams not qualifying for the hex, a couple of groups could get tricky - I think it will really be interesting to see if some of the countries can get eligible players with dual eligibility to commit to them in the new system (Bermuda, etc).
     
  22. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Brooklyn, NY
    Not sure if being in the HEX really improves your chances of qualifying. Canada wouldn't have a snowball's chance in hell of finishing top 3 above Costa Rica in a 10 game tournament.
    So either way they are left fighting for the playoff spot
     
  23. LordofBrewtown

    Wigan Athletic
    United States
    Nov 19, 2018
    I'm not so sure. Costa Rica is aging, and hasn't looked that great to me recently. I think that after Mexico and the US (and I don't even trust the US right now), it's pretty wide open/even amongst the next 7. A surprise result somewhere, and I could see them sneaking in. I'd certainly want the opportunity if I was Canada.
     
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  24. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Canada is eighth (second among the bottom 29) in the FIFA Rankings. If you give them a 90 percent chance at winning a group, an 80 percent chance in the next round, a 60 percent chance in the round after that, and a 40 percent in the round after that (where they would face Panama who's ahead of Canada if all teams' performance matches the FIFA Rankings), that's a 17.28 percent chance at reaching the Concacaf playoff. Make a Hexagonal of Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Honduras, and Canada (taking out El Salvador who's sixth in the FIFA Rankings) and assume that the first three will finish in the top three in some order. If the bottom three were equally good, they would have a 1/3 (33.3 repeating percent) chance at finishing fourth. If Canada is worse than Jamaica and Honduras but not by a ton and you give them a 20 percent chance at finishing fourth, that's higher than 17.28 percent.
     

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