If the rotation system continues ("fortuitously") and C-CAF gets the #5 from C-BOL, the entire Lower Seeded Tournament is going to seem a huge waste of time.
Something like that happened last time. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(CAF) about World Cup 2018 qualifying seeding: "Note: Niger had to enter the first round as they had fewer FIFA ranking points (345.31) than Benin (345.46) and Libya (345.35). In the FIFA World Rankings, teams share the same ranking if their ranking points round to the same whole number."
Only one recognized result today, but it causes some movement in the ranking ;positions. 13 October League A Costa Rica(1438) vs. Curacao(1320) 0-0 0.5 - (1/(10^(118/600) + 1)) = 0.1113 25 * 0.1113 = 2.7825 CUW +3 CRC -3 Honduras vs. Martinique 1-0 Does not count for the rankings MEX 1606 (+3) USA 1548 (+3) JAM 1438 (+3) [+1] CRC 1435 (-7) [-1] HON 1368 (+9) SLV 1331 (+4) -- CUW 1323 (+3) [+1] CAN 1322 [-1] PAN 1316 HAI 1281 (+4) TRI 1216 (-10) ATG 1145 (+8) (point change since last official rankings) [position change since last official rankings] Curacao could have jumped above the line with a win, but it was not to be. There's another chance next month at home. We'll see this week if Canada or Panama can make a move. Honduras gets no ranking points, but it secured the win of its group, so it will play in the four-team final stage of the Nations League in June, right before the decisive rankings are released. Next: League B Guyana vs. Antigua & Barbuda Friendly Venezuela vs. Trinidad & Tobago
14 October League B Guyana(952) vs. Antigua & Barbuda(1145) 5-1 1 - (1/(10^(193/600) + 1)) = 0.6771 25 * 0.6771 = 16.9275 GUY +17 ATG -17 Friendly Venezuela(1506) vs. Trinidad & Tobago(1216) 2-0 1 - (1/(10^(-290/600) + 1)) = 0.2473 10 * 0.2473 = 2.473 VEN +2 TRI -2 MEX 1606 (+3) USA 1548 (+3) JAM 1438 (+3) [+1] CRC 1435 (-7) [-1] HON 1368 (+9) SLV 1331 (+4) -- CUW 1323 (+3) [+1] CAN 1322 [-1] PAN 1316 HAI 1281 (+4) TRI 1214 (-12) ATG 1128 (-9) Next: League A Canada vs. USA Mexico vs. Panama League B St. Lucia vs. El Salvador Aruba vs. Jamaica Friendly Bolivia vs. Haiti
Canada looking good for a Hex spot atm after a dominant display over the USA. Mexico leading Panama, too, finally, playing a bit of an experimental side, so they won’t get anything tonight.
Canada makes a big statement and a big move. 15 October League A Canada(1322) vs. USA(1548) 2-0 1 - (1/(10^(226/600) + 1)) = 0.7042 25 * 0.7042 = 17.605 CAN +18 USA -18 Mexico(1606) vs. Panama(1316) 3-1 1 - (1/(10^(-290/600) +1)) = 0.2473 25 * 0.2473 = 6.1825 MEX +6 PAN -6 League B St. Lucia(969) vs. El Salvador(1331) 0-2 1 - (1/(10^(-362/600) + 1)) = 0.1995 25 * 0.1995 = 4.9875 SLV +5 LCA -5 Aruba(887) vs. Jamaica(1438) 0-6 1 - (1/(10^(-551/600) + 1)) = 0.1077 25 * 0.1077 = 2.6925 JAM +3 ARU -3 Friendly Bolivia(1327) vs. Haiti(1281) 3-1 1 - (1/(10^(-46/600) + 1)) = 0.4560 10 * 0.4560 = 4.56 BOL +5 HAI -5 MEX 1612 (+9) USA 1530 (-15) JAM 1441 (+6) [+1] CRC 1435 (-7) [-1] HON 1368 (+9) CAN 1340 (+18) [+1] -- SLV 1336 (+9) [-1] CUW 1323 (+3) PAN 1310 (-6) HAI 1276 (-1) TRI 1214 (-12) ATG 1128 (-9) (points change since last official rankings) (position change since last official rankings) - Canada is the big winner in this window, with a huge victory over the USA that both gives it a jump over the line and also creates an opportunity to win its group. - El Salvador's two wins in League B just don't carry the ranking weight that it needs, but being only four points back is not a terrible position. - Curacao and Panama have their final chances to get big ranking points from the Nations League next month with home matches against their higher-ranked opponents--one difference is that Curacao has a realistic path to win its group while Panama does not. - Honduras has clinched its group win and is in moderately good shape in the rankings table, provided it avoids a stumble at home vs. T&T next month.
My predictions Qualified for the 2022 World Cup: Mexico, Costa Rica, Canada Playoffs: Honduras Eliminated: USA, Jamaica
I apologize for the question as it is probably stupid and correct me if I'm wrong but is this the format where the top 6 (Mexico, Usa, Jamaica, Costa Rica, Honduras and Canada) currently, would qualify for the hexagon while the rest would have no chance at making the world cup?
The rest will play is a separate qualifying tournament, where the winner of that tournament plays 4th place from the Hex - where the winner of *that* match going to the interconfederation playoffs. So no, they're not locked out of the World Cup. Just unlikely. Though, to be fair, the teams that don't make the Hex now still have something to play for even though the Hex is set, which they didn't before.
I see, I can't believe El Salvador can make it while being in League B. There should be a different score given out considering they are playing against lower seeded opponents while Canada, Curacao, and Panama all have at least 1 team that is seeded well above them.
The way the rankings work, El Salvador doesn't gain as many points for wins against the B teams, and are punished if they lose. So, it kind of works that way; but, yeah, El Salvador really got lucky with the timing of FIFA revamping their rankings, and timing of some victories right after that.
Look, the only realistic chance of qualifying is finishing top 3 in CONCACAF, and the only way that’s possible is by being in the HEX. That doesn’t mean its gonna be easy to finish top 3 , but better than 0% chance. This isn’t 2005. There’s only one good team in CONCACAF right now. Moving along....so what is Canada’s chance after the US win?
It's anyone's race now - and Canada are in the lead, but hardly in the driver's seat. The long version: The tl;dr version: Canada need a result in Orlando to keep ahead of the pack; if they lose, and El Salvador win their two home games in November, El Salvador will overtake them. Then again, Curaçao could make a huge jump if they beat Costa Rica and get to the Final Four (and who knows, if they avoid Mexico, they could win a semifinal and guarantee a Hex berth in the process ).
To provide more detail, in the last rankings ThreeApples posted, Canada leads El Salvador by 4. With Nations League weighting for each game, El Salvador would gain 17 for beating USA, who is 5 spots above El Salvador, and El Salvador would gain 8 for beating Antigua and Barbuda, who is 5 spots below El Salvador. I'm not saying El Salvador is playing those opponents. I'm just providing an example. If El Salvador needs to gain at least 10 points from a game, it would be impossible against Antigua and Barbuda or a worse team.
Great to see. Here's hoping we can continue to do well and keep ahead of El Salvador to gain entry into the hex. Bigger picture, I expect to see our climb continue. Based on how we're playing, I think we should go ahead of Honduras and probably Jamaica to settle at either fourth or third in in CONCACAF. Movement is pretty slow with this new system, though, so we'll have to maintain our performance for a while before it actually shows in the rankings.
#1 MEX #2-5 USA, CRC, HON, PAN < in flux #6-9 JAM, CAN, HAI, CAW < in flux #10 T&T or SLV, close. #2 to #9 are very close. We're lucky there's no semifinal round for us this time because with 8 teams close to each other, we were bound to end in a group with two teams that could beat us. Imagine semifinal groups like this: A: MEX, PAN, HAI, GUA B: USA, HON, CAN, T&T C: CRC, JAM, SLV, CAW We could barely beat Curaçao 1-0 at home. We'd be in trouble. So would be the Ticos, Honduras & Panama. The second tier has got very, very close to the first. Only Mexico remains clearly on top.
2 honest questions: 1) Does anyone know if the CSA is planning to play a friendly in November? I mean, at this point it's downright irresponsible to pass up opportunities to play when maintaining the last spot in the Hex is at stake. 2) Will the CNL Final 4 take place before FIFA releases the June 2020 rankings? b/c if so, that really puts the onus on Canada and Curaçao to win their respective groups.
FIFA calendar: https://resources.fifa.com/image/up...2024-2709662.pdf?cloudid=p3ywicffz0zxeaomaajh International windows until June 2020: 11-19 November 2019 = 2 games, they are the last CNL games (USA-CAN & CUB-USA, so Canada has room for one friendly). 23-31 March 2020 = 2 games, friendlies. 1-9 June 2020 (for non-UEFA) = semis and final in CNL League A, otherwise friendlies. The June ranking is expected, as usual, around the 18th, that is AFTER the CNL is over. If Curaçao wins their group (not unlikely), they will make it to those last two games. We don't know yet where the final tournament would be located, but a Caribbean location would push Curaçao as a favorite above Honduras and the USA, probably.
MEX 1613 (+10) USA 1530 (-15) JAM 1441 (+6) [+1] CRC 1436 (-6) [-1] HON 1368 (+9) CAN 1339 (+17) [+1] -- SLV 1336 (+9) [-1] CUW 1323 (+3) PAN 1310 (-6) HAI 1281 (+4) TRI 1213 (-13) ATG 1129 (-8) Adjusted for the official October 2019 rankings. I was off by five points for Haiti, which must mean that its friendly vs. Bolivia, which I computed as -5 points, was not recognized by FIFA for the rankings. For all others I was off by at most one point. The margin at the line is only three instead of the four that I computed.
I saw an article where a CSA honcho said that they decided strategically not to play a friendly before the recent USA game, so that they could keep the squad in Toronto to prepare while the USA had to play another game and then travel, but that after the November game they will be done with the CNL group and would look for a friendly to try to help with the rankings. I haven't seen anything scheduled, though. The ranking are after the CNL final stage. Before the hex cutoff there will only be two 2020 FIFA windows, March and June, and teams not in the final stage and also not in the Gold Cup qualifying rounds will only have friendlies. Getting into the final stage would be huge for Canada and/or Curacao both because it gives the opportunity for a big positive result and also because there's a loophole in the rankings formula that declares that teams cannot get negative points from those results.
In short, Canada has to root for the Ticos when they play in Curaçao in November. A tie and the Caribbeans are through to the semifinal round. USA beating Canada at home and Cuba away convincingly is very likely, IMO.