PBP: 2020 House and Senate Elections (Maybe even State level)

Discussion in 'Elections' started by ceezmad, May 16, 2019.

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Will Congress stay divided after the 2020 election

This poll will close on Nov 6, 2020 at 11:36 AM.
  1. Yes, different parties will control each chamber.

  2. No, Republicans will keep the Senate and retake the House of Reps.

  3. No, Democrats will keep the House of Reps and retake the Senate.

  4. No, a great 3rd party take over of Congrees will happen.

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  1. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    At least when you are scamming old people by doing fake home roofing or driveways, you first have to go home to home to collect their money. In this gig you just sit back and watch the money roll in.
     
    chaski repped this.
  2. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I will wait until we can fact check her driving :p
     
    dapip and charlie15 repped this.
  3. ElJefe

    ElJefe Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 16, 1999
    Colorful Colorado
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Mathematics is why I haven't QUITE gotten so exercised about Republican gerrymandering. Yes, it's shitty, and yes, it's the reason why redistricting should be taken out of the hands of state legislatures.

    BUT...

    They've managed to create a lot of D districts that are nigh-unflippable, while creating a lot of districts for themselves that are quite flippable in wave elections... as we saw in 2018.
     
    charlie15 repped this.
  4. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    Yep and probably the only reason all 8 MD congressional districts aren't Democratic is MD legislatures desire to make the 7 Democratic districts safe.
     
    charlie15 repped this.
  5. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The R leadership must be seriously concerned to try that spin.

    Republican leadership lowered expectations for the outcome in Tuesday’s North Carolina’s 9th District special election, calling it a “swing district,” Roll Call reports.
    Said GOP Whip Steve Scalise: “You know, the Bishop district is a very tough swing district.”
    President Trump carried this district by 12 points in 2016.
     
  6. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Gonna be honest.. Her J-turn was just okay.. Obviously the intent of it was different since she was just looking to 180 and stop the car rather than the more standard technique of driving it away after, but I would have liked to see the turn be a bit snappier instead of the slow drift they showed in the video... Of course, that could have been editing. ;)
     
  7. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Mc Cready numbers are really looking good so far in NC-09....The Republican will need big numbers to overcome the early votes.
     
  8. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    McCready's narrow loss is explained by Dave Wasserman on his Twitter feed. A lot of people on this board don't and won't understand what he wrote because it's pretty self-explanatory and straightforward: Democrats will not win on their base alone.

    You wanna win? Appeal to 50+1% of the voting public.
     
    Dr. Wankler repped this.
  9. ASU55RR

    ASU55RR Member

    Jul 31, 2004
    Brooklyn, NY/Brno,CZ
    Club:
    FC Zbrojovka Brno
    Nat'l Team:
    Czechia
    I mean, the Democrat base alone in NC 9 should lose by over 10% not ~2%.
     
    charlie15 repped this.
  10. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I assume he is talking nationally, not about this race.

    McCready was not a "base" democrat, but that is probably the point.
     
  11. ASU55RR

    ASU55RR Member

    Jul 31, 2004
    Brooklyn, NY/Brno,CZ
    Club:
    FC Zbrojovka Brno
    Nat'l Team:
    Czechia
    It was a bit of both, he said that if going into the night that if he heard the Democratic candidate would win the suburban county near Charlotte by 3% more than they did in 2018 he would think they would definitely win. It was offset by every rural county in the district moving 2+% more Republican... although really only one county swung drastically and it has a very elastic voting preference.

    The takeaway he proposes is that Democrats are underestimating where the floor is in rural areas for "anti-coastal elites" sentiment. He also injected that the best way to combat that in a district like that is a candidate that will turn out black voters. Presumably with the primary looking more and more like it is down to three candidates, he is sort of implying that Sanders or Warren would be a bad decision electorally.

    The problem I have with that viewpoint, there really isn't much sign of a significant shift in rural areas since the one that occurred in 2016. This was the first post-2018 special election with a significant suburban presence and it seems to show Democrats continuing, as in 2018, to over-perform significantly compared to 2016 and before. That would seemingly be a far bigger "base voter" concern for the Republicans going into 2020.
     
    charlie15 repped this.
  12. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I have the same problem as well. Looking at the results, it is pretty safe to assume that Mc Creary over performed in R+12 District. NC-09 have not elected a Democrat since 1962!! It is pretty amazing that he came that close.
    As a matter of fact, as other pundits and specialists mentioned this am, this result should scare the living hell out of a lot of R in marginal seats (close to 50 of them).
     
  13. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Dude did try to run away from the liberal wing of the Democratic party, Republicans tried to make him look like he was in line with the "squad".

    That is what "moderate" candidates will face in the election, it will be the same for both sides.

    Repugs will be attacked by being associated with Trump, Dems will be attacked by association with the squad.

    I assume his point is that Sanders and Warren as the top of the ticket makes that association easier for republicans to make, but even if it is Biden, they will still run negative adds trying to paint any dem as liberal as the squad (or Pelosi).

    So I am not really sure how much difference will it rally make overall.
     
  14. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Mccready’s slogan was literally Country Over Party.
     
    charlie15 repped this.
  15. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Just as well he didn't win. He'd be primaried with an attitude like that.
     
    JohnR repped this.
  16. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Give it 2 to 3 cycles and it will be competitive, maybe even with the next one with the right Dem candidate. It is getting a lot of outflow from Milwaukee and there are a lot of new, trendy apartments going up (bringing in a wide diversity of people). I worked the polls at a precinct which had a new, multi-hundred unit "urban" apartment complex which went up, and a lot of them were POC.

    But this is more notable than perhaps it is on the surface as Sensenbrenner is very much aligned with Individual One.
     
    American Brummie repped this.

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