2019 U.S. Open Cup

USLC with a good night.

 

So when do we start talking about the "gap" between D2 and D3??

 

Disappointing USL-1 results tonight. Greenville blew a late lead at home v. Charleston, Lansing couldn't capitalize (so far) on a 70-minute man advantage at Indy, and Richmond got blown out by North Carolina.

 

Why is that disappointing? USL1 is DIII and not expected to win those games...right?

 

Situationally disappointing.

 

Orange County heading to extra time vs. Orange County.

 

The 2nd round update for 2019 of my ever popular* league ELO rankings.

*not at all true

Some basic info, for those who want it:
1. These rankings use all USOC games since 1996 to determine the relative strengths of the leagues. The names used below just represent the current names of leagues at that level. In reality the leagues have changed around a lot, and accounting for that is difficult. D2/D3 before 2011 are their own beast. What is now USLC (which was D3 in 2011 and is now D2) and NASL (which is now defunct and joined the Cup in 2012 at the D2 level) started fresh. NASL has now died, what was PDL is now USL2, there's a brand new USL1 this year. It's a mess, I've tried my best, and I'll never be happy with it.
2. There are bound to be mistakes back in the history, but the beauty of ELO rankings is that they are self-correcting over time, so the "actual strengths" probably aren't too far off from this right now, even with errors in older competitions.
3. The actual results used are as follows:
a. Game finishes in regulation with a result: goals scored
b. Game finishes after extra time with a result: goals scored
c. Game goes to penalty kicks: goals scored before the penalty kicks. The game is "recorded" as a tie.
4. A home team has its rating raised by 100, and the change in ratings for each of the teams is calculated based on the result of the game, and the relative difference between the two ratings. This means that currently, we would expect an NASL team hosting an MLS team to be slightly in favor of the MLS team, but not significantly so.
5. The average change in score for any individual game is about 7. This means that one league goes up by 7, and the other down by 7.
6. There is no way to account for the fact that many MLS teams play 'B' or 'C' sides in the first few rounds they participate. I can only base it on the teams fielded.
7. Dead leagues: D2 (pre-2011) - 1642, D3 (pre-2011) - 1560, NASL - 1582. These are only important in that ELO rankings are 0-sum, and those numbers can account for why the average of leagues today isn't 1500.

Round	MLS	USLC	USL1	USL2	NPSL	USASA/etc
2018 Final	1736	1553	1500	1345	1299	1283
2019 R1	1736	1553	1499	1345	1284	1299
2019 R2	1736	1568	1500	1333	1283	1295

Another round, another set of not-to-much change. Again few upsets occurred, the only notable one was a USL1 team beating up on a USLC one 3-0 at the USLC team. That game alone is what saved USL1 from dropping as the other USL1 teams lost this round. As of when I wrote this, only 2 teams not in USLC advanced from the round, with an NPSL and USLC team tied after AET (which means tied for ELO calcs) yet to be determined. This unfortunately will make next round basically just be another USLC round of games, but we can look forward to the few special ones.

 

It appears only 3 USL-C teams lost to a lower level team. 2 of those USL-C loses were extra time/PK.
1 NPSL team advances
1 USL-1
0 USL-2
1 other
19 USL-C

 

Ugh, not liking Birmingham's chances; looks like Louisville has become our rival due to the fact we'll be playing them for the third time in less than two months. First game was a flukey win for us, while the second they dominated....there's always hope I guess.

 

??
I wasn't trying to step on any toes. I was just digesting your info. Was I not supposed to post? Very sorry if I broke some unwritten rule. That was not my intention.

 

I don't want to post my own standings. You do an absolutely awesome job keeping us all up-to-date on the Open Cup. I don't have the time to watch more than a game or two and your info is my lifeline into keeping up with it.
My post was absolutely not trying to correct anything. Just looking at how well USL-C did.
Thanks.

 

so just as a thought experiment, here is how I would break down the 4th round pods if all the home teams won:

reminder that all pods will have either 1 or 2 third round winners
second reminder that I am paranoid and expect the Crew and Cincy to be kept apart

-LAFC, LAG, RSL, Las Vegas
-Seattle, Portland, San Jose, Sacramento
-Colorado, SKC, Colorado Springs, St Louis
-Houston, Dallas, Austin, OKC
-Atlanta, Orlando, Nashville, Memphis
-DC, Philly, Crew, Pittsburgh
-NYC, NYRB, NER, North Carolina
-Minnesota, Chicago, Cincy, Louisville

of course, it's pretty unlikely that home teams will go 11-0

even more unlikely would be road teams going 11-0, but just for fun, here's what that could look like:

It's immediately messy in the southeast, with Florida, Birmingham, Charleston, and Tampa. Obviously only 2 of those teams could be paired with Atlanta and Orlando, and the other 2 would have to be sent elsewhere. Flip a coin as to which 2.

-LAFC, LAG, RSL, Orange County FC
-Seattle, Portland, San Jose, Fresno
-Colorado, SKC, Minnesota, New Mexico
-Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Birmingham
-Atlanta, Orlando, Tampa, Florida
-DC, Philly, Crew, Charleston
-NYC, NYRB, NER, Hartford
-Chicago, Cincy, Indy, Madison

Of course, the truth will be somewhere in the middle.

Also, keep in mind that these pods are for 1 round only, and the 16 winners will be re-podded for the following round.

 

thought experiment #2: what if US Soccer would have actually waited another 48 hours to do the third round draw?

The west is pretty much perfect as is. No need for changes out there. Games like Hartford/Memphis and Tampa/OKC would be long gone though.

-Sacramento/Fresno
-Las Vegas/Orange County
-Colorado Springs/New Mexico
-Austin/San Antonio
-OKC/Memphis
-St Louis/Madison
-Indy/Louisville
-Pittsburgh/Hartford
-Tampa/FloridaSS
-Birmingham/Nashville
-North Carolina/Charleston

Is this version better? Travel-wise, yes.

But maybe teams like Indy and Louisville are getting sick of playing each other all the time, and don't mind being drawn with some different teams. So I suppose not a horrible job from US Soccer. A few cross country games make things a little more intriguing and can spice things up. Though I'm sure the Florida Soccer Soldiers would prefer a bus trip to Tampa as opposed to however they're getting to Cary.

 

also, the OKC/Tampa game has been moved up to May 28

 

If you didn't catch Indy Eleven vs Lansing Ignite yesterday, there was a severe injury suffered by a Lansing player following a foul by the Indy goalkeeper Evan Newton. Newton was initially cautioned for a reckless foul. After a couple minutes, the ref went to speak to the nearest AR (who if I'm not getting them mixed up just so happens to work MLS games). A couple MORE minutes passed with the Lansing player being treated on the field before the referee finally got it right and sent off Newton for serious foul play.

Foul is in minute 17 for the morbidly curious.

 

with any luck one of those 7pm or 10:30 games will move too, and it'll be a full night