2019 U.S. Open Cup schedule

The last game of the round doesn't matter to these ratings, no matter how much I wish it did, so here it is, your final update for the year of the ever popular* USOC leagues elo rating. It's all over since both USLC teams bowed out earlier today.

*not at all true

Some basic info, for those who want it:
1. These rankings use all USOC games since 1996 to determine the relative strengths of the leagues. The names used below just represent the current names of leagues at that level. In reality the leagues have changed around a lot, and accounting for that is difficult. D2/D3 before 2011 are their own beast. What is now USLC (which was D3 in 2011 and is now D2) and NASL (which is now defunct and joined the Cup in 2012 at the D2 level) started fresh. NASL has now died, what was PDL is now USL2, there's a brand new USL1 this year. It's a mess, I've tried my best, and I'll never be happy with it.
2. There are bound to be mistakes back in the history, but the beauty of ELO rankings is that they are self-correcting over time, so the "actual strengths" probably aren't too far off from this right now, even with errors in older competitions.
3. The actual results used are as follows:
a. Game finishes in regulation with a result: goals scored
b. Game finishes after extra time with a result: goals scored
c. Game goes to penalty kicks: goals scored before the penalty kicks. The game is "recorded" as a tie.
4. A home team has its rating raised by 100, and the change in ratings for each of the teams is calculated based on the result of the game, and the relative difference between the two ratings. This means that currently, we would expect an NASL team hosting an MLS team to be slightly in favor of the MLS team, but not significantly so.
5. The average change in score for any individual game is about 7. This means that one league goes up by 7, and the other down by 7.
6. There is no way to account for the fact that many MLS teams play 'B' or 'C' sides in the first few rounds they participate. I can only base it on the teams fielded.
7. Dead leagues: D2 (pre-2011) - 1642, D3 (pre-2011) - 1560, NASL - 1582. These are only important in that ELO rankings are 0-sum, and those numbers can account for why the average of leagues today isn't 1500.

Round	MLS	USLC	USL1	USL2	NPSL	USASA/etc
2018 Final	1736	1553	1500	1345	1299	1283
2019 R1	1736	1553	1499	1345	1284	1299
2019 R2	1736	1568	1500	1333	1283	1295
2019 R3	1736	1556	1494	1333	1304	1294
2019 R4	1753	1540	1494	1333	1302	1294
2019 R5	1730	1562	1494	1333	1302	1294
2019 Final	1740	1553	1494	1333	1302	1294

Remember what I said the time before last about MLS having little to gain by winning? This round exemplified that. Minnesota's 6-1 home win over New Mexico? It netted MLS a scant 5 points. Atlanta's 2-0 home win? 4 points. (Yes, MLS looks like it gained 10 pts, but I swear, that's due to rounding).
All said and done, basically all the leagues are where they started the year. PDL/USL2 are down just a tad, USASA up just a tad, but not even really worth mentioning.

And now for the long, sad, offseason for these ratings, as they now go into hibernation until next May.

 

Pulling for a United vs. United final.

 

Uniteds unite!

 

Given that the ratings right now are barely changed since the start of the tournament this year, I wouldn't expect much in the way of change once MLS teams come in either. The gap between MLS and USLC has been relatively stable the last few years, typically hanging out at just under 200 points, which is where it is now. You have to go back to the end of 2012 for the gap to be under 150 pts, and it only ended a year over 200 points once in that time.

 

Given that the ratings right now are barely changed since the start of the tournament this year, I wouldn't expect much in the way of change once MLS teams come in either. The gap between MLS and USLC has been relatively stable the last few years, typically hanging out at just under 200 points, which is where it is now. You have to go back to the end of 2012 for the gap to be under 150 pts, and it only ended a year over 200 points once in that time.

 

Had to make a new acct for some reason couldn't open my old. But I'm back!