2019 U.S. Open Cup schedule

Discussion in 'US Open Cup' started by newtex, Jan 9, 2019.

  1. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

    Jul 13, 2011
    Hillsboro, OR
    Portland Timbers
    The last game of the round doesn't matter to these ratings, no matter how much I wish it did, so here it is, your final update for the year of the ever popular* USOC leagues elo rating. It's all over since both USLC teams bowed out earlier today.

    *not at all true

    Some basic info, for those who want it:
    1. These rankings use all USOC games since 1996 to determine the relative strengths of the leagues. The names used below just represent the current names of leagues at that level. In reality the leagues have changed around a lot, and accounting for that is difficult. D2/D3 before 2011 are their own beast. What is now USLC (which was D3 in 2011 and is now D2) and NASL (which is now defunct and joined the Cup in 2012 at the D2 level) started fresh. NASL has now died, what was PDL is now USL2, there's a brand new USL1 this year. It's a mess, I've tried my best, and I'll never be happy with it.
    2. There are bound to be mistakes back in the history, but the beauty of ELO rankings is that they are self-correcting over time, so the "actual strengths" probably aren't too far off from this right now, even with errors in older competitions.
    3. The actual results used are as follows:
    a. Game finishes in regulation with a result: goals scored
    b. Game finishes after extra time with a result: goals scored
    c. Game goes to penalty kicks: goals scored before the penalty kicks. The game is "recorded" as a tie.
    4. A home team has its rating raised by 100, and the change in ratings for each of the teams is calculated based on the result of the game, and the relative difference between the two ratings. This means that currently, we would expect an NASL team hosting an MLS team to be slightly in favor of the MLS team, but not significantly so.
    5. The average change in score for any individual game is about 7. This means that one league goes up by 7, and the other down by 7.
    6. There is no way to account for the fact that many MLS teams play 'B' or 'C' sides in the first few rounds they participate. I can only base it on the teams fielded.
    7. Dead leagues: D2 (pre-2011) - 1642, D3 (pre-2011) - 1560, NASL - 1582. These are only important in that ELO rankings are 0-sum, and those numbers can account for why the average of leagues today isn't 1500.

    2018 Final173615531500134512991283
    2019 R1173615531499134512841299
    2019 R2173615681500133312831295
    2019 R3173615561494133313041294
    2019 R4175315401494133313021294
    2019 R5173015621494133313021294
    2019 Final174015531494133313021294

    Remember what I said the time before last about MLS having little to gain by winning? This round exemplified that. Minnesota's 6-1 home win over New Mexico? It netted MLS a scant 5 points. Atlanta's 2-0 home win? 4 points. (Yes, MLS looks like it gained 10 pts, but I swear, that's due to rounding).
    All said and done, basically all the leagues are where they started the year. PDL/USL2 are down just a tad, USASA up just a tad, but not even really worth mentioning.

    And now for the long, sad, offseason for these ratings, as they now go into hibernation until next May.
    blacksun and Expansion Franchise repped this.
  2. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston Dynamo
    2019 US Open Cup
    Quarterfinals results:

    Wednesday, July 10
    Orlando City SC (MLS) 1-1 (pks 5-4) New York City FC (MLS)
    Atlanta United FC (MLS) 2-0 Saint Louis FC (USL-C)
    Minnesota United FC (MLS) 6-1 New Mexico United (USL-C)
    Los Angeles FC (MLS) 0-1 Portland Timbers (MLS)

    Semifinals are July 23, August 6 or August 7.
  3. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston Dynamo
    Quarterfinals results analysis:
    Home teams went 3-1 on advancement. That's 52-28 for the tournament.

    Advancement by affiliation:
    MLS 4-2
    USL-C 0-2

    Note: The two MLS losses were to other MLS teams.

    Cumulative for the tournament so far:
    USL-C 34-22
    MLS 24-17
    USL-1 5-6
    Local Qualifiers 6-8
    USL-2 6-10
    NSPL 6-14

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