2019 Playoff Watch [R]

Discussion in 'San Jose Earthquakes' started by tvromero, Apr 9, 2019.

  1. don gagliardi

    don gagliardi Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    Feb 28, 2004
    san jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    You did not watch the game last night. Got it.
     
  2. tvromero

    tvromero Member

    Jun 2, 2018
    I am sure when were at 0 pts over the first four games that we had a very high chance of winning the golden spoon. We are for sure playing better but four games without a point really hurt our chances. In addition it looks the stats are re-done each week so maybe on Sunday we will have some new numbers that look more to your liking.
     
  3. don gagliardi

    don gagliardi Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    Feb 28, 2004
    san jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    The world is not measured in numbers alone. Ignore the odds.

    Wondo heart.jpg
     
    SalinasQuakesFan repped this.
  4. falvo

    falvo Member+

    Mar 27, 2005
    San Jose & Florence
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Two more draws or one win & the Quakes will be playoff bound!

    upload_2019-4-27_19-59-52.png
     
  5. xbhaskarx

    xbhaskarx Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Feb 13, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You realize every team gets to play the same number of games, right?
     
    markmcf8 repped this.
  6. falvo

    falvo Member+

    Mar 27, 2005
    San Jose & Florence
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Yeah so. what? The point is, they are still only two points away from a playoff spot....

    None of us thought this would happen a month ago....
     
  7. LongTimeQuakesFan'74

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Nov 12, 2007
    Arlington, TX, USA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You will definitely be one person I’d like to meet when I visit San Jose to see a match.
     
    falvo repped this.
  8. tvromero

    tvromero Member

    Jun 2, 2018
    Minnesota and RSL play tomorrow so we'll have to see what happens in those games.
     
  9. don gagliardi

    don gagliardi Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    Feb 28, 2004
    san jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Did our chances of winning the spoon increase again? :)
     
  10. MtnGardener

    MtnGardener Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Jul 21, 2017
    I think it is incredible that the Quakes do, in my mind, now have a a real playoff chance, even with no roster additions. Basically the season began with four bad games (against 3 good teams, btw). Since then, the team has been good. Away points versus Seattle and Dallas! Crushing Portland and SKC? Surviving an early scare to threaten for away points at Houston? That is not a bad stretch of 5 games. If the team from the last 5 games is real, and the team from the first 4 was growing pains as Almeyda learned his roster, then we should be thrilled. And he is doing it while playing TT, Yueill, and Lopez (who is only 19).

    It seems like our wooden spoon odds should be ~0% now. Playoffs at ~20%.
     
  11. tvromero

    tvromero Member

    Jun 2, 2018
    Sports Club Stats has not updated their site from the weekend games as of yet. I will say that we are not really pulling away from the Wooden Spoon group. We are currently at 8 points and there are three teams below us in total points and four team tied with us at 8. The only team to really standout as terrible is Colorado at a disgusting 2 pts with little hope of improvement, but still they are within two wins of us.

    Do you quakes have any additional source of improvement to get on a hot steak as need to start putting up two wins in three game spans regularly to get within playoff range.
     
  12. MtnGardener

    MtnGardener Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Jul 21, 2017
    I said it because the Quakes just got as many points in two hard road matches as the Rapids did all season. The Rapids are the reason we are pulling away =)
     
  13. don gagliardi

    don gagliardi Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    Feb 28, 2004
    san jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    I can't make any assessment of the Quakes' likelihood of retaining the Wooden Spoon until I see the data. Best not to think for myself or rely on my lying eyes to deceive me. I'll let the statisticians do my thinking for me. That and the star chamber secret court known as DisCo. :)
     
  14. tvromero

    tvromero Member

    Jun 2, 2018
    Nine games in, with 25 to go and we are two points out of a playoff spot.

    The current trend is 43 pts for a playoff spot, our last draw gives us 8 pts and a 0.89 ppg (+0.01). We need to avg 1.4 ppg (+0.02) to get to 43.

    Next Three Games:
    - Three Wins - outstanding
    - Two wins - moving up
    - One win, two ties - moving up
    - One win, one tie - keeping up
    - Three ties - losing ground

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/SanJose.html

    Chance of Playoffs: 14.6% (-0.2%)
    Wooden Spoon: 7.4% (-2.7%)
     
  15. MtnGardener

    MtnGardener Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Jul 21, 2017
    Honestly, from where we ended last season, if you told me that we'd have double the chance of making the playoffs as we did of winning The Spoon, I'd be okay. Add on that I love the spirit of the team right now. I know many people mentioned it, but when I saw Almeyda make "go for the win" subs, away, at a good team, I felt a special kind of happy. Like someone who is used to flinching suddenly going all McFly "get your damn hands off her". And I think Almeyda read it right. Even without the three points, the fact that the team "pulled it off" by pushing for a win and not losing the tie, it was great for me as a fan, and I assume great for the confidence in the locker room.

    Wooohoooo!! Go Quakes =)
     
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  16. BIGBADMIKE

    BIGBADMIKE Member

    Nov 4, 2003
    I second that giddy feeling regarding Coach Almeyda sub decisions in the last game ... sort of of a Stefan Curry hit the long 3 on a fast break type move ....

    And i’m loving his RECENT decisions regarding starters and subs .....

    I said after the first game ...
    WONDO has got to sit .... he’s a LEGEND .... but he’s hurting the team on both sides of the game THIS year ..... so i’m applauding this decision ...

    I was more concerned that Coach Almeyda was sitting VAKO .... but Vako’s defensive game is just to soft & inconsistent .... he’s better off the bench ...

    And i’m tipping my hat to his decision to play Shea Salinas at the left winger spot .... pretty much a brilliant decision that no one expected .... ( I myself would have moved M Lopez up to the left midfield spot ... perhaps his defensive abilities are just good enough in that position either )

    And starting a young Jackson Y & Tommy T whose defensive abilities seemed glaringy apparent to me .... it just goes to show you what great coaching can do ......
     
  17. markmcf8

    markmcf8 Member+

    Oct 18, 1999
    Vancouver, WA, USA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not to be a downer or anything, but on PPG, we’re still below the playoff line.
    https://www.mlssoccer.com/standings?sort=ppg

    Now we have been playing better (evidently, I’ve missed several games) and we’re earning points. We’re clearly climbing the table, which is excellent. Nevertheless, we’ve got a ways to go. We need to get to about 1.4 PPG to make the playoffs (give or take a few hundredths of a point). So basically, we need to win every other game from here out, actually, a little less well should do the trick.

    And remember fans, PPG is the measuring stick, not stupid stuff like total points. Total points only counts at the end of the season, until then, in order to compare apples to apples, it’s PPG!!

    Go Quakes!!
    Go Quakesfans!!

    - Mark



    And f@#$ el-lay!! Just because. :D
     
  18. bobby_guzman

    bobby_guzman Member+

    Oct 24, 2014
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Games in hand mean nothing until you actually win them.

    It's just all been doom and gloom here for the last season and a half. Let's celebrate a little :) We fans deserve it!!!!
     
  19. jeff_adams

    jeff_adams Member+

    Dec 16, 1999
    Monterey, Ca
    https://www.mlssoccer.com/standings/scenarios

    Fun for a day
     
    don gagliardi repped this.
  20. don gagliardi

    don gagliardi Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    Feb 28, 2004
    san jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Quakes05 repped this.
  21. markmcf8

    markmcf8 Member+

    Oct 18, 1999
    Vancouver, WA, USA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Don’t get me wrong Jeff, I am completely pumped that we’re doing as well as we are. On the upswing!! That’s 100,000 times better than on the downswing!! Oh yeah!!

    But a bunch of people here have said that we’re above the redline, which we are not. We’re getting there!! We should beat the CounterRevs, and that will be a big help. I don’t expect us to go undefeated the rest of the way, we’ll lose some more games. BUT, we’re doing much better in earning points, and we look better on the pitch!! Woo hoo!!

    Now for breakfast and more traveling.

    Go Quakes!!
    Go Quakesfans!!

    - Mark
     
  22. tvromero

    tvromero Member

    Jun 2, 2018
    Ten games in, with 24 to go and we are sitting in the last playoff spot. We in 7th, both SKC and Timbers has a slightly better PPG than us. Three teams are one point behind and #6 is 4 pts above us

    The current trend is 38 (-5) pts for a playoff spot, our last result gives us 11 pts and a 1.0 ppg (+0.21). We need to avg 1.12 ppg (-0.28) to get to 38.

    Next Three Games:
    - Three Wins - outstanding
    - Two wins - outstanding
    - One win, two ties - moving up
    - One win, one tie - moving up
    - One win - losing ground
    - Three ties - losing ground

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/SanJose.html

    Chance of Playoffs: 22.1% 14.6% (+7.5%)
    Wooden Spoon: 2.9% 7.4% (-4.5%)
     
  23. DotMPP

    DotMPP 'Quakes fan in Stumptown

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Jun 29, 2004
    SE Portland, OR
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Earthshaker repped this.
  24. don gagliardi

    don gagliardi Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    Feb 28, 2004
    san jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    We should have beers together :)
     
    DotMPP repped this.
  25. DotMPP

    DotMPP 'Quakes fan in Stumptown

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Jun 29, 2004
    SE Portland, OR
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I've got to listen to Abramson's latest book. Since losing my job in San Carlos (early Jan), The hour/day time to veg out on CalTrain and listen to Audible.com books has vanished. I'm reduced to following Tweet threads. I'm out of the loop a bit.
     

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