I agree that the Union aren't shitty. Perhaps it seems there are more shitty teams since we enjoy rarefied air above those shitty teams, and by dint of not being amongst them there is in fact at least one more team at the septic tank end of the table? I don't think I would say expansion has "diluted" the talent level. Soccer is a global game, perhaps the only real global game and MLS draws talent from leagues all over the world. If the rapid expansion has caught teams out, it's probably in their FO's not being staffed to operate in this newer model. What is refreshing about The MLS compared to other leagues is how little actual capital investment in coaches or players can vault a team forward. DCU buying Rooney moved them from cellar dweller the last few years to playoff contenders. I do think the academies are starting to bear fruit with MLS-level starters (there's always that rush to extrapolate HGPs and their U18 callups to world class silliness). This allows clubs to increase their player acquisitions pipeline without relying on the unevenness of the NCAA game. I think the league as a whole is miles further along in talent than 2010. That's a trend that will continue for the immediate future (3-5 years). At some time expansion will cool and the single entity training wheels will need to be re-evaluated. Wouldn't discount other global economic trends coming into play here as well(strong USD performance over the last 2 years, SA countries in economic distress, BREXIT challenges for work visas, etc etc).
This is spot on. Just comparing and contrasting the last few rounds of expansion teams you can easily see who understood what it was going to take to compete in MLS. Atlanta, NYCFC*, & LAFC all started from scratch and didn't have a "ready for MLS organization or fanbases. Yet here they are miles ahead of the "Ready for MLS" brigade of FC Cincy, Minny United, and Orlando. Wouldn't be a huge shock if and when Sac Republic is awarded entrance into the league that they face plant on the field for a few years. The lower division teams/organizations seem to underestimate what it takes to compete and sustain success in MLS. *NYCFC has the added benefit of being a part of global football organization, and also the NY Yankees as part owners as well.
Of course the hybrid models of Seattle and PTFC were able to both leverage invaluable experiences running clubs even more valuable resources of deeper pocketed owners to win trophies. And those are cool things to get.
12 Games to go in this season, and we're hitting that time of year where the Union have always seemed to drop off a bit. Wondering what everyone else thinks of our schedule for the remainder of the season? We have to travel for the following: Montreal DC United Chicago RBNY San Jose Columbus Then we're home vs.: Chicago Houston DC United Atlanta LAFC NYCFC Looks a bit tougher than what we've had so far. My expectations would be for wins against Chicago & Columbus on the road. I would love to at least draw with RBNY, Montreal, & DCU. San Jose is playing really well, so I'm not going to expect anything from traveling out there. So, 9 points from our away matches should be doable. Home is a bit tougher to gauge. Getting 6 points out of the Chicago & Houston matches shouldn't be an issue, and we typically play DCU very well in our house, so maybe 3 there. The last 3 though, I'm not sure what to think. Atlanta & LAFC, even at home will be tough, so maybe I'll just pencil in 0 for those. NYCFC always seems to have our number, but if we can get 1 there, I'd be happy. So, 10 out of our home matches would be the minimum I'd hope for. 19 points from our last 12 (1.58 PPG) for a final total of 55. Anyone see things any differently?
55 would have been 4th in East last year. Not impossible for 3 teams to play better over that remaining span but hopefully there won’t be 3 that play that much better in the last 12. (Especially if we take points or draw in head to head)
I think 55 will probably be a higher finish than 4th this year. RBNY and Atlanta were streets ahead of the rest last year. Celt is right that's a pretty tough run-in. I reckon 15-16 points more likely.
Agree, getting passed by 3 teams in that span is possible but not likely unless Philly gives them help by going really cold. Somebody will get hot late and make a run but given the schedules it is hard for 3 teams to do that as they play each other. One benefit of watching a lot of promotion and relegation battles is a “feel” for how things play out relative to movement between clubs as they come down to the wire. Getting passed by 3 teams in 12 games would require some unique performances.
Not too hard to imagine getting passed since quite a few teams have games in hand. ATL and NYCFC both have the look of teams that will pass us. I feel we’re on par with RB, and a little ahead of DC/MTL. Is Wooten the difference? Will Fabian show up? Will the deeper pocketed teams reload and run us down? Mayb. Nah. Most certainly.
I didn’t look closely but didn’t see teams with a PPG that indicates they are likely to pass us as they make up the game differential. But I didn’t look at it long enough to be positive.
Interesting pair of nights for scoreboard watching. Leading into the weekend, depending on tonight & tomorrow night's results, we could have the following: Union 36 pts. DCU 35 pts. RBNY 34 pts. Atlanta 33 pts. ... who says you need a relegation race for excitement?
People that don't realize a playoff race and jockeying for seeding is infinitely more interesting and has more teams in play than a relegation battle or single table battle.
I dont know...I guess it has to do with whose ox is in question. Relegation or promotion is a lot more exciting than whether a team finishes 3rd or 4th in a playoff race if your team is fighting for $180 million dollars a year, more or less. Seeing Villa fight to avoid relegation, get relegated, lose the playoff and then win the playoff to get promoted sure felt more exhilarating than playoff seeding. All in the eye of the beholder I guess.
3 points would be excellent with Atlanta and DCU going head-to-head, we can re-establish some breathing room.
The Union have two winnable games coming up: 8/11 vs. Houston after Houston plays at NYCFC 3 nights earlier 8/17 at Chicago after Chicago plays at Portland 3 nights earlier That is followed by 7 difficult games to end the season: 8/24 vs. DC after DC plays home against NYRB 3 nights earlier 8/31 vs Atlanta (Atlanta's prior game is 8 days earlier) 9/7 Bye week - international break and game against Pumas on 9/7 9/14 vs. LAFC 9/22 at NYRB after RB play at Portland 4 days earlier 9/25 at SJE (we likely will send a B team although SJ plays at ATL 4 days earlier and hosts Seattle 4 days later) 9/29 at Columbus (CLB has no mid-week game) 10/6 vs. NYCFC One positive is that the Union have only one mid-week game left while 5 of the 9 remaining opponents play 3-4 days before playing the Union.
I think just looking at standings in the table is not really a good way to address "winnable" and "difficult" for this Union team. "Winnable" is against a team that plays a more open, attacking style and "difficult" is v one that bunkers and counters. If the Union score first they tend to be pretty good at getting the win but when they have struggled it has been trying to come from behind and against counter-attacking teams. Can't say I watch enough MLS games other than the Union to know who plays what style so not sure what that breakdown is for the remainder of the season but if I was an opposing coach I think I know how I would play and if most of the teams have played a game a few days prior to playing the Union then seems to me they would be even more inclined to just sit back and counter. If Miro and Ilsinho are back to form and Wooten and Kasper continue to work well together up top I think we will do well as long as Curtin figures out a way not to get beat by balls over the top of the back line. Going to really test his new found flexibility to pick the right line up depending on the match up. Either way, going to be an exciting few months one way or the other. Nervous as hell but in an excited way and not so much waiting for the other shoe to drop as I have felt in past years. ...probably just means Lucy is going to pull the football away again at the last minute...
For sure a little earlier to talk about this but there is certainly a potential for the Union to snag a Champions League spot. Assumptions: Supporters shield: LAFC Eastern Conference winner: AUFC or NYC US Open Cup: AUFC vs less likely Minn since its at ATL MLS Cup: Likely LAFC, but who knows really So I assume that the Union would likely get a spot if they finish 3rd or 4th in the supporters shield assuming AUFC and LAFC win everything. Not sure how the next spots would be filled with duplicate winners or if MLS cup runner up would get a spot in that situation
From Wikipedia: "For the United States, three berths are allocated through the Major League Soccer (MLS) regular season and playoffs (the MLS Cup winner, the Supporters' Shield winner, and the other regular season conference winner); the fourth berth is allocated to the winner of its domestic cup competition, the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup. If...any U.S-based team qualifies for the Champions League by more than one method, the Champions League place is allocated to the U.S.-based team with the best MLS regular season record which has failed to otherwise qualify." So losing the MLS Cup finals is no longer an automatic qualification, and it's based purely on the SS standings if a team a qualifies more than one method.