2019 FSU

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by Tom81, Dec 2, 2018.

  1. Tom81

    Tom81 Member

    Jan 25, 2008
    I don't disagree.
    I think CPT would give the insight and rationale for RPI.
    Above my pay grade.
    All rankings have weird anomalies.
    RPI has us #1 and Clemson #2.
    TDS has USCe 8 with 1 loss to Clemson (not a fluke) and Clemson 1 loss to FSU and 1 tie where they dominated the stats ranked #19.
    United SC has USCe 6 and Clemson 7 again behind the team the dominated.
    At least it was close.

    My point/question is how big a role does RPI play come NCAA selection?
    I'm guessing CPT would point out our SOS having played 5 top 20s already with UNC, Duke and UVA all upcoming.
     
  2. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Over the last 12 years, the #1 seeds always have come from the top 7 teams as ranked by the Adjusted RPI in the end-of-regular-season ARPI rankings. So, I think of the top 7 at that time as the candidate teams for #1 seeds. This probably is about the right range for the Committee to look at, given the spacing of teams in this area of the ratings.

    And, since we're talking about rankings as of today, the pool of potential #1 seeds, based on the past 12 years, is the top 28 teams in the ARPI rankings. Thus it's way too early to be quibbling about who is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.

    Once the Committee knows the candidates, there are other factors that come into play.

    In response to some other comments, sure Florida State lost to UCLA and Southern California -- away.

    And, UCLA lost to Cal -- at home -- and tied Pepperdine -- at a neutral site.

    And, Southern Cal tied Baylor -- away -- and lost to Stanford -- at home.

    And, Baylor tied Nebraska -- away -- and Abilene Christian -- away, and lost to Colorado -- away -- and Kansas -- away.

    And, Stanford lost to Pepperdine -- away.

    And Pepperdine tied Texas A&M -- at home -- and tied UCLA -- neutral, lost to Illinois -- at home, lost to Vanderbilt -- at home, lost to Cal Poly -- away, and lost to Washington State -- neutral.

    This can go on and on.

    The point is, to get teams in a reasonable order, you have to look at their entire bodies of work. You can't look at one or two games and draw conclusions.

    The Law of Small Numbers is a false construct of the human brain and emotions: "Any data sample is good no matter how small." There's a whole body of study about how humans think their general decision making is based on the good statistical work that their brains do when, in fact, humans in their every day lives are not good statisticians.

    Indeed, teams play on average between 19 and 20 games per season. That's about 10 games short of what we really need.
     
  3. Crazyhorse

    Crazyhorse Member

    Dec 29, 2007
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I wonder how we will look today? I think Deyna, Payne and Carle are all away playing for their countries. Our depth has taken a hit recently too, seems like 80 percent of the bench has a knee injury.
     
  4. Tom81

    Tom81 Member

    Jan 25, 2008
    I didn't know about Deyna being away too.
    The Pitt game is a good one to have them be gone for.
     
  5. Crazyhorse

    Crazyhorse Member

    Dec 29, 2007
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Saw on the twittersphere she was with Venezuela playing Paraguay yesterday.
     
  6. Tom81

    Tom81 Member

    Jan 25, 2008
    We won unimpressively 1-0.
    We had a 19-2 shot advantage.
    1 of their 2 shots should have been a header goal,but she missed.
    Of course, we missed several very makeable shots as well.
    We were missing 3 starters in Heather Payne CB, Gabby Carle outside back
    and Deyna Attacking mid or Forward.
    She is very valuable in breaking down these bunkering defenses.
    Good to see Clara and Kristina play.
    Both played well, but it is obvious that KL is not back to full strength/speed.

    Still hope to see her more and more going forward.
    Clara needs time at WMF, b/c she is dangerous.
     
  7. Val1

    Val1 Member+

    Arsenal
    Mar 12, 2004
    MD's Eastern Shore
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Well, this is the week you want them gone.

    Not next weekend....
     
  8. Wildcatter

    Wildcatter Member

    Sep 9, 2018
    had 19 shots but only 4 on target. Pretty good job by Pitt to frustrate Florida State
     
  9. Tom81

    Tom81 Member

    Jan 25, 2008
    A shot off the cross bar or off the side post is not considered a SOG is it?

    SOGs are not created equal. Some are from long distance, or lack proper pace to be dangerous, but are SOGs.
    Some shots are bullets that hit the side or crossbar and are very dangerous, but are not technically SOGs.
    Other shots go just wide or just high, but are very dangerous.

    Pitt's best opportunity was not a SOG because the header went wide left, but should have been in the goal.
     
  10. VictoryCB

    VictoryCB New Member

    Florida State Seminoles
    United States
    Dec 4, 2018
    Northern Virginia
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Do we know yet if Gabby will be back for Thursday's match at VT? I doubt Payne/Deyna will as the Irish & Ven games are tomorrow.

    VT tied Duke in their last game and with the Berlin Wall defense being employed by so many teams against us now, it sure would be helpful if we were at somewhat full strength.
     
  11. Tom81

    Tom81 Member

    Jan 25, 2008
    Considering the schedule and travel (unless Heather doesn't play), I don't expect either Heather or Deyna to play Thursday against VT, but would expect them Sunday for UVA.
    I noticed that HP has another game 11/12. We have ACC Tourney quarters on 11/3. That would make semis and finals a week later?
    If so, HP would miss the latter, assuming we make it that far.
     
    VictoryCB repped this.
  12. Tally T

    Tally T New Member

    philly
    United States
    Sep 16, 2019
    Deyna is back and will be on the field against VT. Gabby and Heather will probably not be available for VT but all 3 will be ready to go against UVA.
     
    VictoryCB repped this.
  13. Tom81

    Tom81 Member

    Jan 25, 2008
    Thanks for the update.
    IOW, our midfield better be ready to dominate possession and create some goals, because not having Gabby and Heather definitely impacts our back line defense in a negative way.
     
  14. Crazyhorse

    Crazyhorse Member

    Dec 29, 2007
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Will the game even be played tomorrow? Saw a blip about a huge storm up yonder.
     
  15. Tally T

    Tally T New Member

    philly
    United States
    Sep 16, 2019
    I haven't heard of a cancellation yet but you are right, they will need to watch the weather.
     
  16. VictoryCB

    VictoryCB New Member

    Florida State Seminoles
    United States
    Dec 4, 2018
    Northern Virginia
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  17. sweepsit

    sweepsit Member

    Oct 25, 2016
    SF, California
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Heading to OT.... both VaTech goals are credit to them, but I think either don't happen or are much harder if Robbins isn't at left back with the internationals out. She's definitely slower and not as effective as closing down as Pavlisko there.

    Red card late on VT. Ref reviewed to confirm but unclear what it was from on tv replay; appears something after the play not captured by the cameras. No call as Howell is taken down from behind after beating her defender and is charging forward in the box with less than a minute left. Could have ended the game there.
     
  18. Tom81

    Tom81 Member

    Jan 25, 2008
    Ref also missed a clear hand ball in the box earlier on VT.
     
  19. sweepsit

    sweepsit Member

    Oct 25, 2016
    SF, California
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nesbeth with the game winner!

    ACC crew finally showed the follow up footage to the red card, too. Well deserved. Can't kick people in the crotch after the play. Jeffers learned that lesson earlier in the year :)
     
  20. Tom81

    Tom81 Member

    Jan 25, 2008
    Good win at VT given that we were missing 2 starters.

    Hope Makala's injury is not serious.
    She brings something to the table.
    That first goal was due to an athletic and intelligent back header that Deyna buried.
    Deyna is Deyna. That one redirected pass to KMac making a wide run into the right back, was beautiful.
    I admire the grit and determination of Lynch and Nesbeth (Kudos for the last goal), but they are obviously
    nowhere near full speed.

    Players who have improved dramatically.
    KMac is much better IMO. As dangerous defensively with her hustle and has improved her passing.
    KPav was a monster tonight. Tough, fast and tenacious beyond her size.
    MBerk is very dangerous going forward. (I'm beginning to believe she will make a future WNT)
    Jaelin is still a rock defensively, but her attacking runs and through passes are much improved vs last year.(another future WNT)
    Makala is going to be a force for us. Reminds me of Jamia Fields with her physicality, pace and improving skill.
    Clara didn't play last year, but she has been good in midfield for us. (very creative)

    I'm probably missing a couple.
    We are alone in 1st place in ACC now.
    I personally believe Stanford is currently the best team.

    Getting Heather and Gabby back will make us very dangerous going forward!
     
  21. Tom81

    Tom81 Member

    Jan 25, 2008
  22. ping

    ping Member

    Dec 7, 2009
    FSU is so great to watch. They try to play world class soccer and get results doing it which is considerably more difficult than it looks. As critical as I have been in prior posts of a lot of teams just kicking the ball, FSU is the polar opposite and a great example of exceptional NCAA D1 women's soccer. Of course you have to have the players to try to play that style and most teams do not. But that doesn't take away from what FSU does.

    For me, first touch is everything and the first touch of FSU players is generally tight which allows them to play a lot faster and cleaner. It doesn't stop there. FSU's passing/moving/ crossing, and finishing outclass most. Their composure even when they are behind is awesome to see as was the case early vs VT.

    My only strong criticism during the VT game was #6's effort at times and Castellanos failing to defend/pressure the crosser on VT's second goal. She reminded of how a lot of strikers historically didn't defend at most levels. I strongly believe the entire team should attack and defend as the game evolves. It didn't end up costing them in this instance but during the tournament taking a play off defensively like that could be the end of your season.
     
  23. ping

    ping Member

    Dec 7, 2009
    Red card was clear on the initial video footage. The VT player kicked out donkey-style at her after the initial contact. I think the FSU player got hit in a very sensitive area. Lame on the ACC telecast with the replays because they clearly had the video of it and didn't show the "afters" but they allowed the ref to see it. Their replays showed the first coming together but not the kick out. I guess they didn't want to showcase the dirty play of VT which wasn't limited to that instance. #19 of VT tackled players back to back from behind and the ref didn't say a word but did call fouls. Late tackles from behind endanger players and should receive yellow cards.
     
  24. Tom81

    Tom81 Member

    Jan 25, 2008
    6 Is a future full national teamer in my opinion. She almost never comes out of the game and is a rock defensively. She also has improved her dribbling and through passes significantly over last year.
    As far as Deyna is concerned, she has improved defensively each and every year. That said, she still has moments like the one you’re speaking of
    She will never be known for her defensive prowess.
    Where Deyna Impresses me most is her passing.
    She gives some of the most accurate and delicate through passes and change of field passes that I’ve seen on the college level.
    One of the best last night was a one touch redirection pass to an attacking player from the right going into the box. It was perfectly weighted.
    That does not invalidate your observation about her defense.

    Most college players stop the ball and take a touch before striking it or passing it. She has the ability to frequently take it out of the air, or off the ground immediately, and strike or pass.
     
  25. Tom81

    Tom81 Member

    Jan 25, 2008
    I totally agree about tackles from behind that do not come close to tackling the ball. They should absolutely be a yellow card, and if persistent a red card.
     

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