Match Day 1: Borussia Dortmund - Barça. Tuesday, 17 September (9.00pm) - Match Day 2: Barça - Inter. Wednesday, 2 October (9.00pm) - Match Day 3: Slavia Prague - Barça. Wednesday, 23 October (9.00pm) - Match Day 4: Barça - Slavia Prague. Tuesday, 5 November (6.55pm) - Match Day 5: Barça - Borussia Dortmund. Wednesday, 27 November (9.00pm) - Match Day 6: Inter - Barça. Tuesday, 10 December (9.00pm)
Gonna be a rough start with Messi possibly just returning and Suarez out or same situation. Even if Neymar comes he is suspended for 3 CL games.
For Wesley Sneijder, Real Madrid is in the toughest group. #UCL 🏆😅 Para Sneijder el grupo del Real Madrid es el más complicado...▶ https://t.co/6G4dNiKFot pic.twitter.com/s43APvKRmc— Sport TV (@diariosporTV) August 30, 2019
That's very interesting... Why is Bayern necessarily the 2nd favorite? I mean sure, they're definitely up there but 2nd place? And why is Atletico so remarkably low? Less chance than Leipzig and Salzburg?
Well you can read about their methodology here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/ And see updates here (things already changed with today's results): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/ As for Atletico the posted ranking came after Atleti's first loss, and Atleti is in a group (like Barca) with two other top 5 league teams, Juventus and Bayer, they strongly predict Juventus qualifies from the group so that would leave Atleti or Bayer, they favor Atleti but not by a huge margin. Hence all their predictions for advancing to quarterfinals, semifinals, finals, winning also take a hit.
Ah that makes sense, I didn't realize that insane group of death existed. In that case I guess I have to agree! And I have to say, fivethirtyeight tends to be pretty spot on with their predictions. Last year they predicted a number of the Ajax upsets during the CL phase (which I also did, but i'm obviously biased).
Going into Matchday 6 here are how the groups look and which teams qualified/can still qualify for the knockout stages. Confirmed group winners Confirmed group runners-up Confirmed through to Round of 16 Still in contention to advance Group A: Paris SG : Real Madrid Group B: Bayern Munich : Tottenham Hotspur Group C: Manchester City : Shakhtar Donetsk : Dinamo Zagreb : Atalanta Group D: Juventus : Atlético Madrid : Bayer Leverkusen Group E: Liverpool : Napoli : RB Salzburg Group F: FC Barcelona : Borussia Dortmund : Internazionale Group G: RB Leipzig : Zenit : Lyon Group H: Ajax : Valencia : Chelsea
Well we can't possibly draw Real, Atleti, Valencia, Dortmund or Inter... The nightmare opponent would be Liverpool if they finish second. A lot of more likely opponents like Tottenham, Chelsea, Napoli, and Ajax could be trouble as well.
Get Liverpool . Get revenge or get knocked out early . We aren’t winning CL. Better to concentrate on La Liga.
makes sense but the danger is that if we actually beat them, liverpool would love to have the luxury of focusing fully on what they really want more than anything - the EPL title. i really don't want to give them that. if we have to get knocked out early, I'd rather lose to Ajax to solidify TenHag's reputation. anyone up for a Mourinho reunion?
I wouldn't be so pessimistic as some on this thread. Sure we aren't favorites for the CL but we have a decent chance. Just like last year we had a chance. This year Suarez looks fitter, Griezmann could still fit in really well as a third forward and we have an injured Alba right now and he's important for us in building up our offense. De Jong and Arthur also provide more young legs that can hopefully withstand the press better than our oldies. Other big teams have their own problems. If stars align we could win it. That being said, definitely wouldn't want Liverpool in R16. Once you make it to the QF hopefully SF then anything can happen. Breaks can go your way... If you get a tough draw, your chances dramatically decrease.
To @Danko 's point just above, we are the bookies 2nd choice to win it all and the 538 computer's 4th choice to win it all right now. City - 3:1 odds to win it all; 24% chance by 538 Barca - 6; 9% Liverpool - 6.5, 10% PSG 7.5, 8% Bayern 8, 19% --- this is the best bet to make if you believe the computer Juve 12, 4% Real 16, 7% Spurs 22, 3% Atleti 25, 3% Chelsea 33, 3% Ajax 40, 2% Napoli 40, 1% RB Leipzig 50, 3% BVB 80, 1% Inter 80, >1% everybody else less than 1% to win and 200:1 or longer odds in this order 200 Lyon, Valencia; 250 Salz; 300 Zenit; 500-1000 all others not already eliminated
Matchday 6 and half of the groups are complete. Confirmed group winners Confirmed group runners-up Confirmed through to Round of 16 Still in contention to advance Group A: Paris SG : Real Madrid Group B: Bayern Munich : Tottenham Hotspur Group C: Manchester City : Shakhtar Donetsk : Dinamo Zagreb : Atalanta Group D: Juventus : Atlético Madrid : Bayer Leverkusen Group E: Liverpool : Napoli Group F: FC Barcelona : Borussia Dortmund Group G: RB Leipzig : Lyon Group H: Valencia : Chelsea
Just to state the obvious from @unclesox 's post. Currently we could draw 4 of the 6 confirmed 2nd place teams: Spurs, Napoli, Lyon, and Chelsea. Plus the Group C 2nd place team ( Shakhtar Donetsk : Dinamo Zagreb : Atalanta ). But unless Bayer makes it through ahead of Atleti (very unlikely, as Atleti ahead a point and host the last place team, which Bayer host Juve - though Juve may rest players; 538 gives Bayer only a 7% chance) it will be one of those 5 teams. Cannot get BVB, or any Spanish club (Real or Atleti). Congrats to Valencia winning their group, sorry it was at the expense of Ajax, but happy for La Liga and Jasper Cillessen (who is injured at the moment). If Atlanta qualifies tomorrow, only teams from the top five leagues will be in the Round of 16. That might be a first, if it occurs, but Atalanta in last place at the moment so both games have to fall their way. FWIW 538 predicts 27% chance of that, 64% for Shaktar, 9% for Dinamo Zagreb.
Shakhtar v Atalanta isn't just for Champions League survival. More importantly, the Helmond Cup is on the line.
I guess the team to avoid would be Spurs. And maybe Napoli. We should be able to beat the others fairly comfortably, unless we get hit with major injuries. This has added importance since the Ukrainian league about to go on a 9-week winter break starting Sunday.
Well after Spurs, Chelsea is considered the next most dangerous 2nd place team we might face, then Napoli. Chelsea have a lot of fast young legs who could give us trouble, plus they were just cleared to do transfers in January and may do so since they were stopped over the summer. Napoli just sacked Ancelotti and seem to be a mess right now with the "retiro" mutiny, and may even sell a couple players in January who otherwise leave for free in the summer (Callejon & Mertens). If Shaktar keep the Helmond and qualify for CL, they play at the 2nd place Ukraine squad, Zorya, this weekend, then go dormant till their first elimination game in CL. I'd like for Atalanta to win and qualify for CL and also bring Helmond closer to Spain, and to a league with more teams in European competition so more chances it makes it to us. Hopefully we draw the Group C 2nd place team in any event. Currently that team is the dark horse Dinamo Zagreb but many more minutes to play in both games.
Group stage is now complete. Group winners Group runners-up Group A: Paris SG : Real Madrid Group B: Bayern Munich : Tottenham Hotspur Group C: Manchester City : Atalanta Group D: Juventus : Atlético Madrid Group E: Liverpool : Napoli Group F: FC Barcelona : Borussia Dortmund Group G: RB Leipzig : Lyon Group H: Valencia : Chelsea
Round of 16 draw will take place on Monday 16 December at 12:00 CET (6am ET U.S.) Here are Barcelona's possible opponents. Players listed are one booking away from missing the Round of 16 second leg. No clubs have any players suspended for the first leg. Barcelona: Semedo, Busquets Atalanta: De Roon, Djimsiti, Iličić Chelsea: Azpilicueta, Jorginho, Zouma Lyon: Koné Napoli: Koulibaly, Llorente Tottenham: none
Looking at the 5 clubs we could draw, Lyon is the weakest of all 16 according to 538 computer ranking of all clubs, they come in at 37th (just ahead of Valencia ranked 36th who we cannot draw for a couple reasons). Atalanta is ranked 25th, Napoli 20th, Tottenham 12th, and Chelsea 8th. Barca itself is ranked 4th (behind City, Bayern, and Liverpool). The 2nd pot teams we cannot draw include two of the ones everyone in the first pot wants to avoid, Real Madrid 5th, Atletico 7th, and BVB 13th. In the first pot (group winners), everyone in the 2nd pot would like Valencia 36th, then RB Leipzig 11th, Juve 9th, PSG 6th, Barca, Liverpool, Bayern, and City 4th-1st. The bookies see it a little differently, preferring Barca and PSG to Bayern, for instance, they rank the teams thusly: 1st-City 3.25:1 to win it all Liverpool 5:1 Barca 6 PSG 7.5 5th-Bayern 8 Juve 13 Real 14 Spurs & Atleti 25 10th-Chelsea 33 Napoli 40 BVB & RB Leipzig 50 Valencia 80 15th - Atalanta & Lyon 100