Ready...set...GO! Have to start this thread somehow, so let's try this: Rank the following players in the order of most to least likely to return for 2020...not what you WANT to happen, but what you REALISTICALLY EXPECT to happen (this is my order): Gaddis Blake Wagner Kacper Ilsinho Haris Fabian Fafa Monteiro Burke (any current Union players not listed are either obvious or not worth mentioning for the purpose of this discussion)
Its going to be a long depressing offseason I feel. Ernst Tanner on a permanent Jamiro Monteiro move: "Thats what we already tried and it was unsuccessful. We’ve been focusing on other guys as well. I think we will get a real good team, if all the solutions work out that we are working on then we will get a real competitive team."— Matthew De George (@sportsdoctormd) October 25, 2019
Kacper Gaddis Wagner Fafa Ilsinho Burke rest are placed into good homes or left to their own recognizance
Step 1: Union don't sign anyone significant until < 1 month prior to opening day, hoping to pick up somebody cheap Step 2: Curtin has to develop a system that emphasizes everyone's talents during the first two months of the season. Meanwhile the team plays mediocre. Step 3: somewhere around June or July everyone learns and understands the system and the Union look like Barcelona for two months. Step 4: the rest of the league scouts the Union and makes adjustments accordingly. The Union play poorly the last month or two. Curtin can't come up with a new scheme fast enough. Step 5: depending on how well they did the first half of the season we may or not get a playoff game. Step 6: back to Step 1.
Was this season the high water mark for this franchise with a first round playoff win? I think what they do this offseason will say a lot in answering that question.
Hopefully Tanner has some cards up his sleeve and they can keep the mojo going. But let's be honest, Jay Sugarman is still the owner. The Union's best players are getting old. Monteiro is going to leave. I expect a regression to the mean.
I'll break it down by position. GK: Blake and Freese are back for sure. Bendik I believe is gone and they will either sign Morton from Bethlehem or find another cheap American to be the third keeper. Defense: Wagner, McKenzie, Trusty, Elliott, Gaddis, and Real stay. Mbaizo is let go, Collin is likely let go,RJ Allen goes, and Fabinho retires to join our Brazilian youth coaching ranks. Midfield: Bedyoa, Ilsinho, Fontana, Aaronson stay. Creavalle, maybe. Monterio (see above). Haris and Fabian are gone. Forwards: Kacper, Wooten, Santos stay. I'm pretty sure Ngalina stays. Fafa I believe is gone and I lean that way on Burke as well. I'm trying to make these guesses based on what I believe Tanner is trying to do and what he was brought in to do. He wants to play a 4-4-2 but have players that can move into 4-2-3-1 if the situation depends on it. He also is supposed to be trying (I believe) to incorporate the Steel and youth teams more into the first team. That is why I think they roll into next season with a forward core of Kacper, Wooten, Santos, Ngalina, and Faris (currently on the Steel). Kacper we know about and Santos got better as he adjusted to the league by year end. Wooten was garbage but as I said elsewhere, you don't just give up on a 17 goal scorer last year in 2.Bundesliga without letting him get a full pre-season in. Also, both those players are comfortable as a center forward but have played wide for previous teams (Wooten was a RW in Germany for years). Ngalina is someone I think they are high on as a winger and they moved him into playing a center forward at the Steel where he did ok. He replaces Fafa who I think is going to want to be paid more than what the Union will want to for a player I think they see as 4th on the depth chart next year. Faris I have there because I think they replace Burke with him. Burke might fit in the 4-2-3-1 but I don't see him playing well in the 4-4-2 and he would need to beat out Kacper at that spot. Stat wise Burke is behind Kacper in MLS in minutes per goal (160 to 149) and Faris in USL (235 to 188). They are going to cost the same and take up an international slot, so you go with 19 year old over the soon to be 28 year old with visa issues. The only other player from Steel/Academy I think may get signed for next year is Nathan Harriel. Played his way into being a starting RB and, if we make the moves I think we do, then we basically have no one behind Ray there.
I have no basis for this, but I am skeptical that Burke's visa issues, whatever they are, will be sorted out and that he will rejoin the team next year. I'd love to be wrong...i like the guy and think he would provide good depth at striker, but my gut tells me he won't be back for reasons that have nothing to do with soccer (not trying to turn this into a political conversation).
This was their first playoff win in the history of the franchise, so by definition, so far, yes. I agree. I am hopeful based on what I have seen so far from Tanner, but we'll know more about their intent, one way or the other, by next March.
Good analysis. If that all comes to pass then we will need serious reinforcements in midfield. Without Medunjanin there is space for a true defensive midfielder but on the creative side with him and Monteiro gone there is a massive gap to be filled.
I'm going to take a deep dive here into how I see the roster going into next year and what directions they could go and what limitations they have. Mind you this could all change if they announce certain players have guaranteed contracts next year. I'm also using minutes played and a little bit of what I saw with the Steel when I bring up players from there. I'm also not using the Steel's record as any indication of the quality that team may have. Unlike a team like NYRB II or Real Monarchs, the Steel are a young team filled with kids not used to even the travel and intensity of college soccer. For instance, the Steel had two players (Chambers and Zandi) that were 23 or older and played more than 1k minutes. NYRB II had 10. Players 20 or older with more than 1k? 5 (two of those being Real and Fontana) to 15. NYRB is very good at turning college aged kids like Long and Barlow into MLS players via the II team. The Union are trying to do the same but with kids 4 years younger. Results at the USL level will be different as such. Assuming a 4-4-2 diamond that Tanner has talked about lets look at the depth chart assuming the players I said were staying or going above. Going to include roster status (S for senior and R for reserve) as well as international status (I). Not worrying about DPs since they won't play any roll in this exercise. Also, I'm going to assume that we want at least 2 players available per spot on the chart. So, I'm going to indicate next to the position the minimum number of players we'd want at each position (and I'm not putting a player at more than one position either). GK (2): Blake (S), Freese (R) LB (2): Wagner (S-I), Real (R) CB (4): Elliott (S-I), McKenzie (R), Trusty (R) RB (2): Gaddis (S) DM (2): None CM (4): Bedyoa (S), Creavalle (S) AM (2): Aaaronson (R), Fontana (R) ST (4): Kacper (S-I), Wooten (S), Santos (S-I), Ngalina (R-I) Others: Ilsinho (S), de Vreis (R), Turner (R) Senior: 10 of 18 minimum, Reserve: 9 of 10 maximum, International: 5 of 8. I'm ignoring Ilsinho on the depth chart since he is a late game sub primarily for a 4-2-3-1. Also, de Vreis spends a full year at the Steel and I'm not sure where or if Turner fits. Now, lets look at the non-Union signed players from the Steel that saw routine action with their position(s), age, and international status. Ofiemu (CB - 19), Cortes (LB - 19, Intl), Rayyan (RB/RM - 19), Willis (DM/CM - 22, Intl), Harriel (RB - 18), and Faris (19 - ST, Intl). Of those, I don't think Ofiemu or Rayyan are ready based on what little I saw this year. Cortes is a question mark. He did end up playing more than Real at that spot, even in games Real was available. Based on open international slots and need I think that Faris and Willis have the best chance. Faris would be a good understudy for Kacper and I think he is about growing out of USL. Willis reminds me of Burke but younger as he is already a full international, would be cheap, and is likely ready to contribute some off the bench. He also likely fits in two spots of need so that makes him more valuable. One drawback he'll face (outside of the international slot) is that I'm not sure where Turner fits. He played 1800 minutes this year for the Steel split between CB and DM. If they see him as more of a back-up DM then that hurts Willis' case. Of course this is all screwed up by the international status of these players and Elliott. I'm assuming that they are looking at a minimum of two internationals to fill the DM and CM slots. What about RB though? Is that Ray's spot to lose and they bring in a player like Harriel? Or do they have a Wagner type signing up their sleeve? Also, I keep talking about Steel signings but we are already almost full up on reserve spots. I'm guessing Willis and Faris would sign league minimums and go the senior roster, but who knows. Really though, the off-season hinges on if they can find a DM that can shield the defense (unlike what Haris did) and someone that can cover ground like Monteiro did. The hope is Aaronson is better next year, Wooten or Santos can chip in 10 goals, and Blake has a rebound in form (or Freese turns into a solid MLS keeper).
IMO Creavalle falls into the reserve DM spot, and Fontana falls into the reserve role for Bedoya. Not sure why some folks like to slot Fontana in as an attacking player as he has primarily played as an 8, or in the Bedoya role for Steel and the USYNT's. I wonder if they resign Bendik as he would be good insurance if Blake continues his current run of form. Arronson should be better next season. An off season of work to add some needed strength will help him. Plus one would think that Tanner could find him and the some of the other academy and home grown players some training stints during the offseason to give them some different competitive environments. The hope is that with the extended preseason (his half season and then the upcoming preseason) for Wooten that he settles and becomes the player that the Union envisioned when they signed him. Santos just has to stay healthy, because even when he doesn't score goals he makes an impact. The DM spot is the big one. They need to find two players. One is a Tyler Adams/N'Gola Kante type engine. The other is a hybrid like Montiero. As far as RB goes, one would think they could find a more offensive minded RB that can push and unseat Gaddis. As far as reserve players, there will be a lot of the Steel & academy players in camp and they will get a shot to make the roster. Ofiemu could make the roster as a reserve CB as he has been playing with Steel for 2 seasons now. Wouldn't be a shock if he makes the senior team (unless they either resign Colin or sign another veteran CB).
Fontana has 217 MLS minutes (with 2 goals and an assist, which is pretty remarkable) so I've never quite figured out where/if he fits on the first team side. I concede he could be more of a CM, just haven't seen enough to know for sure. I thought about this earlier and I don't think there is an American player abroad that is affordable and would push Gaddis. I also don't feel there are any that would play as CM or DM either and I see those as more of an issue than Gaddis at RB. But I did think of something that could work, though it I'm saying right now it is a LONG shot. Julian Gressel. He hasn't been able to come to terms yet with Atlanta and it isn't sounding good when they asked him about it. Assuming he wants to stay in America (and not just Atlanta) I think he'd make perfect sense to make a run at. He is probably going to want TAM money (think 700k+) to stay which is why I think Atlanta hasn't done a deal with him yet (lots of TAM talent on that team and you can't keep it all). So would they go for a trade that involves a hefty amount of TAM? And would Gressel want to play for an Eastern rival? If yes, well, sign me up for that. At least as good on defense as Ray, much better going forward, hits a hell of an entry ball and cross, and can play RW as well.
Priority has to be to sort out the international slots. Medunjanin/Elliott - Both have played 3 seasons now and should have green cards (really should have had them by the beginning of this season). Don't know whether this is a Union thing, US gov't thing or something else, but really needs to be resolved. Burke - Visa issues, age, and general skill level mean that he should move on. Mbaizo - He's now the age of a typical college draft pick. Should either be the starting RB, get a green card (been here 2 years now), or move. Monteiro/Fabian - likely gone. Wagner/Santos/Przybylko - realistically need another year (minimum) to get green cards Ngalina - Hopefully getting close to a GC (played with Steel for a while), but is young enough to warrant keeping on without one. Hopefully Tanner has learned that he can't waste an international slot on a back-up goalkeeper.
Most certainly in context of the past, yes! But what I had in mind asking that question is will winning a first-round playoff match remain the highest achievement this club accomplishes in the next few years?
Understand...it's a fair question. The eastern conference is always going to have at least 2-3 big spenders like ATL, TO, and NYC, so it's going to be hard to make deep playoff runs on a regular basis. If Tanner and Jim Curtin 2.0 can keep pulling the strings on their current trajectory, a trip to the conference semis every 2-3 seasons isn't out of the question in a single elimination playoff format.
So, fun fact for this one. That keeper just started a UEFA Champions League group stage game away at Napoli and came away with a 1-1 draw while making 4 saves. Not saying that he would be a starter here, just find it funny that he got beat out by a 20 year old American kid that never played a pro game before this year and know he was a starter in the UCL.
Expansion draft is 11/19. Trying to figure out who I'd be okay protecting, and leaving open. Aaronson, Fontana, Freese, McKenzie, Real, Trusty, Turner, & deVries are all auto-protected. Beyond that we have to protect a minimum of 3 internationals. Here's my go at who to protect: Przybylko, Monteiro, Elliott, Blake, Ilsinho, Wagner, Bedoya, Santos, Wooten, Gaddis, Picault, Medunjanin. Exposed: Allen, Fabinho (retiring anyway), Bendik, Burke, Collin, Creavalle, Fabian, Mbaizo, Ngalina. Depending on what they think about Burke, I'd be okay if they protected him, and exposed Picault.
Isn’t Monteiro gone? If there’s a minimum total number to protect, I’d swap Monteiro for Ngalina. I predict that once again no one is selected from the Union.
Unprotected players: RJ Allen Fabinho Joe Bendik Aurelien Collin Warren Creavalle Marco Fabian Olivier Mbaizo Haris Medunjanin Michee Ngalina Biggest surprise to me is that Burke was protected over Creavalle and Ngalina. Now, maybe he has trade value or transfer value but protecting 5 forwards (Kacper, Fafa, Santos, Wooten, Burke) seems a bit excessive.
My guess about Monteiro is one of two things 1) The Union think they will be able to sign him permanently or get another loan for him 2) They want to prevent either Nashville or Miami from being able to sign him Let's be real here, I'm not really broken up about any of the players that were left unprotected and I don't think anyone else is either. RJ Allen - A near 30 year old right back that at this point has next to no cred in the league. Probably ain't getting picked up Fabinho - Turns 35 in March of next year not quick enough to keep up as a defender at this point Joe Bednik - Backup at best, MAYBE a team takes him to see if he's got something left in the tank Aurelien Collin - At best a "veteran" option, turns 34 in March Warren Creavalle - While is okay at DM provides dick in the offense which in the modern era of soccer isn't something that's going to get you very far. Marco Fabian - Of interest if you want a name that will get some buzz about your team, however his salary would be a huge hurdle, not to mention I'm convinced he wants to go back to Mexico Olivier Mbaizo - Unknown quality at RB Haris Medunjanin - Turns 35 in March, has some good passing ability but isn't terribly great at the whole "defending" part of Defensive Midfielder Michee Ngalina - Even more unknown than Mbaizo