2018 WC Russia: CONCACAF Opponents Watch [all R's]

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Dr. Gamera, Jul 25, 2014.

  1. Dr. Gamera

    Dr. Gamera Member+

    Oct 13, 2005
    Wheaton, Maryland
    This thread is inspired by, most recently, the thread from @TimB4Last entitled 2014 WC Brasil - CONCACAF WCQ opponents watch [all R's]. That thread eventually broadened to include non-CONCACAF teams as well; for organizational purposes, therefore, I've started two threads, one CONCACAF-0nly, and one for all other teams around the world. This is the CONCACAF-only thread; here is a link to the thread for all other teams around the world:
    http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/2018-wc-russia-worldwide-opponents-watch-all-rs.2008959/

    To start things off, here is an early projection from @Edgar of the pots for the CONCACAF WCQ draw:
    http://www.football-rankings.info/2014/07/2018-fifa-world-cup-qualifying-draw_25.html

    Unsurprisingly, it looks as if Costa Rica, Mexico, and the USA are likely to end up in Pot 1. Pot 2 is probably going to consist of Panama, Honduras, and one other team; El Salvador currently clings to the last Pot 2 spot. However, results of the 2014 Copa Centroamericana (held in the USA for the first time!) and the 2014 Caribbean Cup could mix things up.
     
    raza_rebel and TimB4Last repped this.
  2. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #2 Paul Calixte, Jul 25, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2014
    I really appreciated the last thread as a way of consolidating and keeping up with the news of other teams in the region, IMO an essential part of appreciating the universality (and unfiltered wackiness) of World Cup preliminaries. And yes, I imagine that plenty could change after the Gold Cup; but at least we can take bets on which (interim) coaches make it to the start of qualifying.

    Let's start with a familiar theme from last time around: Ticos going apes---. :D Things escalated quickly once outgoing Costa Rica coach Jorge Luis Pinto broke with the script at his last press conference, admitting that he decided not to continue because the Federation wouldn't let him get rid of an assistant coach who had been calling for his head since a year and a half ago. Apparently Federation president Eduardo Li (sitting two seats away from Pinto) was too stunned to respond at the time; afterwards, daggers started flying in all directions. Li asserted that Pinto betrayed an agreement of confidence by spilling the beans about the assistant coach, and accused him of wanting to get rid of the entire coaching staff in favor of Colombian assistants. Current interim coach Paulo César Wanchope and team sociologist Jaime Perozzo called Pinto a dishonest coward; both, along with team captain Bryan Ruiz, also revealed that Pinto had worn out his welcome with his disciplinarian style, and that the players nearly revolted against him when Costa Rica flirted with elimination before the game at El Salvador in the semifinal round of WCQ in 2012.

    In a complete role reversal from the Hex, things are more stable in Mexico, with Miguel "Piojo" Herrera confirmed to take charge of the 2018 cycle (knowing full well that the FMF can pull the trap door on him at any time). The only problem for the time being is his complete lack of self-censorship on social media: he pissed off goalkeeper José de Jesús Corona by publicly revealing that Corona didn't take well to being benched for Ochoa in the World Cup finals.

    Lastly, Honduras have their replacement for Luis Suárez: Costa Rican legend Hernán Medford. As a coach, his NT experience is nothing to write home about, featuring a ho-hum quarterfinal run with Costa Rica in the 2007 Gold Cup, followed by a full calendar year without winning a single game (including a 2-2 draw at Grenada to start qualifying for the 2010 World Cup that ultimately cost him the job). At club level, however, he is one of the most successful Central American coaches of all time: he has won league championships with Saprissa, Xelajú in Guatemala and most recently with Real España in Honduras. More importantly, he led Saprissa to the 2005 CONCACAF Champions Cup and a subsequent 3rd-place finish at the Club World Cup; two years ago, his Xelajú became the first non-Mexican team ever to eliminate a Mexican opponent from the CONCACAF Champions League, as they overcame Chivas in the group stage of the 2012-13 edition.
     
  3. TimB4Last

    TimB4Last Member+

    May 5, 2006
    Dystopia
    My preference is (as always) to let two (or more) (nearly) identical threads run independently for a while, so that when they are eventually combined the resulting thread is an incomprehensible jumble. But that's me ...
     
  4. Gilmoy

    Gilmoy Member+

    Jun 14, 2005
    Pullman, Washington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #5 Gilmoy, Jul 27, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2014
    Mathematicians did that when they merged continuous algebra (factoring of polynomials) with discrete algebra (rings, fields, groups) to prove that you can't (in general) factor a quintic. You complain for 1.9 semesters: "what does this have to do with equation anything, this seems very far away from math" -- and your professor is just cackling up his sleeve the whole time, like he has secret knowledge or something.

    But it's ok, math was already a jumble long before this :thumbsup:
     
  5. y-lee-coyote

    y-lee-coyote Member+

    Dec 4, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
    Rufini and Abel would have agreed with that, but Galois said not so fast my friend, not so fast, there are numeorus particular quintics that can be factored. I think that stuff is pretty important in computation algorithms for CAS. :)
     
  6. drt2k3

    drt2k3 Member

    Jul 1, 2005
    Wilmington, NC
    Club:
    Wilmington H.
    I really hope aruba doesn't keep their top 12 ranking over Guatemala. They are being rewarded for going "undefeated" in gold cup qualifying
     
  7. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They're already eliminated, so this fall they're going to drop like a stone while everyone else picks up Gold Cup qualifying points.

    ...of course, if Guatemala crap out at the Copa Centroamericana yet again, they have no one but themselves to blame for the low ranking.
     
  8. drt2k3

    drt2k3 Member

    Jul 1, 2005
    Wilmington, NC
    Club:
    Wilmington H.
    i hope you're right. the guys projecting the march 2015 rankings has them listed as 10 because they are not going to lose any more. it is very unlikely for a nation that is ranked lower than Aruba to make it through the Caribbean Cup without one or two loses to FIFA members, except for the Barbados - Suriname winner if they do not advance. They would be in the same situation Aruba is in, losing only to non FIFA members, which does not effect your ranking.
     
  9. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The problem for them is that they aren't going to win anymore either, while almost everyone else can. For instance, Haiti shot up nearly 40 places in the FIFA ranking after finishing third in the 2012 Caribbean Cup, even after losing to Cuba in the tournament semifinals.
     
  10. drt2k3

    drt2k3 Member

    Jul 1, 2005
    Wilmington, NC
    Club:
    Wilmington H.
    The October rankings will be quite interesting. These September games have the potential to really shake things up. I wonder if the 3 north American nations will institute some type of qualification since they are missing out on points due to automatic gold cup qualification
     
  11. Sebsasour

    Sebsasour Member+

    New Mexico United
    May 26, 2012
    Albuquerque NM
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think the US and Mexico really care, the only team really taking blow is Canada
     
  12. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    ...and frankly, they could use every WCQ game they get.
     
  13. Sebsasour

    Sebsasour Member+

    New Mexico United
    May 26, 2012
    Albuquerque NM
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well the biggest issue for our neighbors to the north is that if CONCACAF uses the same qualifying format as the last one, falling below #12 means you wont get seeded in the 2nd round which would put them in danger of having to beat out a team like Trinidad, Guatemala or El Salvador. The Canadians may not be great, but that's still a team you'd expect to at least make the semi final round
     
  14. dna77054

    dna77054 Member+

    Jun 28, 2003
    houston
    I have always thought that Canada's free pass to the Gold Cup does them more harm than good. Also I cannot think of any reason they would deserve it in the first place.
     
  15. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    They haven't won a match of any kind in almost two years. They're awful.

    They have zero business getting a free pass to the Gold Cup. I have no idea why the Central American nations don't raise more of a stink than they have been.

    FIFA rankings:

    Costa Rica 16
    Canada 118

    And yet Costa Rica has to qualify for the Gold Cup. Unbelievable.

    People just come up with excuses and excuses and excuses for Canada. Oh, they've been experimenting with young players for the past two years. We can't
     
  16. Sebsasour

    Sebsasour Member+

    New Mexico United
    May 26, 2012
    Albuquerque NM
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think it has more to do with Geography. The Central American and Caribbean teams have their own tourney's which are perfect to double as qualifiers.
     
  17. drt2k3

    drt2k3 Member

    Jul 1, 2005
    Wilmington, NC
    Club:
    Wilmington H.
    yep and the north american teams are missing out on valuable points in the FIFA rankings. Would make it easier to get a seed if the US and Mexico had to qualify for the Gold Cup.
     
  18. Sebsasour

    Sebsasour Member+

    New Mexico United
    May 26, 2012
    Albuquerque NM
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Depending on the opponents it could have a small effect, but I'm not sure Nicaragua and Guatemala would add all that much to our ranking
     
    Paul Calixte repped this.
  19. drt2k3

    drt2k3 Member

    Jul 1, 2005
    Wilmington, NC
    Club:
    Wilmington H.
    this is true. playing qualifiers against top tier CONCACAF opponents would result in more points than beating a Top 10 opponent. beating mexico in a GG qualifier would yield double the points than beating germany in a friendly.
     
  20. Sebsasour

    Sebsasour Member+

    New Mexico United
    May 26, 2012
    Albuquerque NM
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How would you do Gold Cup Qualifying for North American teams?
     
  21. drt2k3

    drt2k3 Member

    Jul 1, 2005
    Wilmington, NC
    Club:
    Wilmington H.
    Example:

    If we beat the Czech Republic in our next match we will earn 495 points. Since our average for 2014 is 554.94, simply playing this game in september will lower our ranking even though beat the Czech Republic on their field is a good accomplishment. (3 points for a win*1 for a friendly*Czech Ranking 165*1 Conferderation Multiplier)

    Now take a look at Costa Rica. They have a Gold Cup Qualifier against Panama in September. If they win that game they will earn 1102.2 points (3*2.5*167*.88) which will boost their current 647.01 average.
     
  22. drt2k3

    drt2k3 Member

    Jul 1, 2005
    Wilmington, NC
    Club:
    Wilmington H.
    I would combine it with the Central American Qualifying.

    Do 2 groups of 5. 2 matches in September 2014 and 2 in October 2014. Top 3 in each group qualify for Gold Cup. 4th Place in Each group draws against the two 3rd place teams in the Caribbean Cup Groups that can be played in March 2015 in a home-away two leg playoff qualifier.
     
  23. drt2k3

    drt2k3 Member

    Jul 1, 2005
    Wilmington, NC
    Club:
    Wilmington H.
    Example
    Group A: US, Honduras, Panama, Guatemala, Belize
    Group B: Costa Rica, Mexico, Canada, El Salvador, Nicaragua

    Based on points:

    US, Honduras, Panama, Costa Rica, Mexico and Canada would likely be top 3 in each group

    Jamacia, T&T, Haiti and Cuba would be top 4 in Carribean Cup

    Guatemala and El Salvador would play Guadeloupe and Dominican Republic for the final 2 GC spots.
     
  24. blacksun

    blacksun Member+

    Mar 30, 2006
    Seoul, Korea
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The confed multiplier for the Czech game will be the average of the UEFA and CONCACAF ratings (currently 0.94). Also, FIFA should update the confed rankings with the new World Cup data which will drop the CONCACAF multiplier to 0.85, which would make the multiplier for the Czech game 0.93.
     

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