This thread is inspired by, most recently, the thread from @TimB4Last entitled 2014 WC Brasil - CONCACAF WCQ opponents watch [all R's]. That thread eventually broadened to include non-CONCACAF teams as well; for organizational purposes, therefore, I've started two threads, one CONCACAF-0nly, and one for all other teams around the world. This is the CONCACAF-only thread; here is a link to the thread for all other teams around the world: http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/2018-wc-russia-worldwide-opponents-watch-all-rs.2008959/ To start things off, here is an early projection from @Edgar of the pots for the CONCACAF WCQ draw: http://www.football-rankings.info/2014/07/2018-fifa-world-cup-qualifying-draw_25.html Unsurprisingly, it looks as if Costa Rica, Mexico, and the USA are likely to end up in Pot 1. Pot 2 is probably going to consist of Panama, Honduras, and one other team; El Salvador currently clings to the last Pot 2 spot. However, results of the 2014 Copa Centroamericana (held in the USA for the first time!) and the 2014 Caribbean Cup could mix things up.
I really appreciated the last thread as a way of consolidating and keeping up with the news of other teams in the region, IMO an essential part of appreciating the universality (and unfiltered wackiness) of World Cup preliminaries. And yes, I imagine that plenty could change after the Gold Cup; but at least we can take bets on which (interim) coaches make it to the start of qualifying. Let's start with a familiar theme from last time around: Ticos going apes---. Things escalated quickly once outgoing Costa Rica coach Jorge Luis Pinto broke with the script at his last press conference, admitting that he decided not to continue because the Federation wouldn't let him get rid of an assistant coach who had been calling for his head since a year and a half ago. Apparently Federation president Eduardo Li (sitting two seats away from Pinto) was too stunned to respond at the time; afterwards, daggers started flying in all directions. Li asserted that Pinto betrayed an agreement of confidence by spilling the beans about the assistant coach, and accused him of wanting to get rid of the entire coaching staff in favor of Colombian assistants. Current interim coach Paulo César Wanchope and team sociologist Jaime Perozzo called Pinto a dishonest coward; both, along with team captain Bryan Ruiz, also revealed that Pinto had worn out his welcome with his disciplinarian style, and that the players nearly revolted against him when Costa Rica flirted with elimination before the game at El Salvador in the semifinal round of WCQ in 2012. In a complete role reversal from the Hex, things are more stable in Mexico, with Miguel "Piojo" Herrera confirmed to take charge of the 2018 cycle (knowing full well that the FMF can pull the trap door on him at any time). The only problem for the time being is his complete lack of self-censorship on social media: he pissed off goalkeeper José de Jesús Corona by publicly revealing that Corona didn't take well to being benched for Ochoa in the World Cup finals. Lastly, Honduras have their replacement for Luis Suárez: Costa Rican legend Hernán Medford. As a coach, his NT experience is nothing to write home about, featuring a ho-hum quarterfinal run with Costa Rica in the 2007 Gold Cup, followed by a full calendar year without winning a single game (including a 2-2 draw at Grenada to start qualifying for the 2010 World Cup that ultimately cost him the job). At club level, however, he is one of the most successful Central American coaches of all time: he has won league championships with Saprissa, Xelajú in Guatemala and most recently with Real España in Honduras. More importantly, he led Saprissa to the 2005 CONCACAF Champions Cup and a subsequent 3rd-place finish at the Club World Cup; two years ago, his Xelajú became the first non-Mexican team ever to eliminate a Mexican opponent from the CONCACAF Champions League, as they overcame Chivas in the group stage of the 2012-13 edition.
Incredible timing: http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/2018-wc-russia-concacaf-opponents-watch-all-rs.2008960/
My preference is (as always) to let two (or more) (nearly) identical threads run independently for a while, so that when they are eventually combined the resulting thread is an incomprehensible jumble. But that's me ...
Mathematicians did that when they merged continuous algebra (factoring of polynomials) with discrete algebra (rings, fields, groups) to prove that you can't (in general) factor a quintic. You complain for 1.9 semesters: "what does this have to do with equation anything, this seems very far away from math" -- and your professor is just cackling up his sleeve the whole time, like he has secret knowledge or something. But it's ok, math was already a jumble long before this
Rufini and Abel would have agreed with that, but Galois said not so fast my friend, not so fast, there are numeorus particular quintics that can be factored. I think that stuff is pretty important in computation algorithms for CAS.
I really hope aruba doesn't keep their top 12 ranking over Guatemala. They are being rewarded for going "undefeated" in gold cup qualifying
They're already eliminated, so this fall they're going to drop like a stone while everyone else picks up Gold Cup qualifying points. ...of course, if Guatemala crap out at the Copa Centroamericana yet again, they have no one but themselves to blame for the low ranking.
i hope you're right. the guys projecting the march 2015 rankings has them listed as 10 because they are not going to lose any more. it is very unlikely for a nation that is ranked lower than Aruba to make it through the Caribbean Cup without one or two loses to FIFA members, except for the Barbados - Suriname winner if they do not advance. They would be in the same situation Aruba is in, losing only to non FIFA members, which does not effect your ranking.
The problem for them is that they aren't going to win anymore either, while almost everyone else can. For instance, Haiti shot up nearly 40 places in the FIFA ranking after finishing third in the 2012 Caribbean Cup, even after losing to Cuba in the tournament semifinals.
The October rankings will be quite interesting. These September games have the potential to really shake things up. I wonder if the 3 north American nations will institute some type of qualification since they are missing out on points due to automatic gold cup qualification
Well the biggest issue for our neighbors to the north is that if CONCACAF uses the same qualifying format as the last one, falling below #12 means you wont get seeded in the 2nd round which would put them in danger of having to beat out a team like Trinidad, Guatemala or El Salvador. The Canadians may not be great, but that's still a team you'd expect to at least make the semi final round
I have always thought that Canada's free pass to the Gold Cup does them more harm than good. Also I cannot think of any reason they would deserve it in the first place.
They haven't won a match of any kind in almost two years. They're awful. They have zero business getting a free pass to the Gold Cup. I have no idea why the Central American nations don't raise more of a stink than they have been. FIFA rankings: Costa Rica 16 Canada 118 And yet Costa Rica has to qualify for the Gold Cup. Unbelievable. People just come up with excuses and excuses and excuses for Canada. Oh, they've been experimenting with young players for the past two years. We can't
I think it has more to do with Geography. The Central American and Caribbean teams have their own tourney's which are perfect to double as qualifiers.
yep and the north american teams are missing out on valuable points in the FIFA rankings. Would make it easier to get a seed if the US and Mexico had to qualify for the Gold Cup.
Depending on the opponents it could have a small effect, but I'm not sure Nicaragua and Guatemala would add all that much to our ranking
this is true. playing qualifiers against top tier CONCACAF opponents would result in more points than beating a Top 10 opponent. beating mexico in a GG qualifier would yield double the points than beating germany in a friendly.
Example: If we beat the Czech Republic in our next match we will earn 495 points. Since our average for 2014 is 554.94, simply playing this game in september will lower our ranking even though beat the Czech Republic on their field is a good accomplishment. (3 points for a win*1 for a friendly*Czech Ranking 165*1 Conferderation Multiplier) Now take a look at Costa Rica. They have a Gold Cup Qualifier against Panama in September. If they win that game they will earn 1102.2 points (3*2.5*167*.88) which will boost their current 647.01 average.
I would combine it with the Central American Qualifying. Do 2 groups of 5. 2 matches in September 2014 and 2 in October 2014. Top 3 in each group qualify for Gold Cup. 4th Place in Each group draws against the two 3rd place teams in the Caribbean Cup Groups that can be played in March 2015 in a home-away two leg playoff qualifier.
Example Group A: US, Honduras, Panama, Guatemala, Belize Group B: Costa Rica, Mexico, Canada, El Salvador, Nicaragua Based on points: US, Honduras, Panama, Costa Rica, Mexico and Canada would likely be top 3 in each group Jamacia, T&T, Haiti and Cuba would be top 4 in Carribean Cup Guatemala and El Salvador would play Guadeloupe and Dominican Republic for the final 2 GC spots.
The confed multiplier for the Czech game will be the average of the UEFA and CONCACAF ratings (currently 0.94). Also, FIFA should update the confed rankings with the new World Cup data which will drop the CONCACAF multiplier to 0.85, which would make the multiplier for the Czech game 0.93.