Why are we allowed to change? I made a prediction BEFORE the season started. Now I’ll wait to see how far off I was. (Currently on track to be way off @41-45)
The preseason predictions aren't changing. I bumped this thread simply to see whether the first ten matches changed perceptions of the team and its prospects.
Yeah, 46 seems low at this point. If you just go by PPG, Revs are at ~2.17 PPG at home this year, which would translate to an addition ~24 points at home for the last 11 games. And with a 1 PPG on the road, that's an additional 13 points. Meaning ~37 points just based on the average so far on top of the 17 currently, so that would put the team in the 51-55 range.
According to this, Revs have had the 3rd easiest schedule so far. Which I assume means the hard part is yet to come. Baer: Who has faced the toughest and easiest schedules so far? May 16, 2018, 3:28PM EDT Benjamin Baer New Media Editor
The Revs are currently in 6th place in the East. Toronto is still below them, and you know it is only a matter of time before they move above the red line. Philly has won two straight, is nipping at the Revs heals, and already beat them head to head. However, I think the Revs will hold off the Union, which means that final play off spot will come down to the Revs and Orlando (currently 5th). The Revs most important game of the year could be Aug 4th at Orlando. The Revs have a bye the previous weekend, and follow this game with PHI (home), at DCU and at PHI. The Revs need 10 points in August, because September and early October are brutal, including road games vs NYC, LAFC, TOR and ATL. From July 18 to Oct 6, the Revs play 9 road games and only 3 home games.
Great post. It's a shame the schedule is so unbalanced as the revs traditionally draw poorly in the spring but very well in the fall. This time of year is full of graduations, weddings and other events while the fall is usually more open. Then again, less chances to have NFL lines on the field. Hope it doesn't drag down the revs' attendance average too much, though it could also offset by attracting a 30k+ crowd for the final home game.
I don't think about attendance much at all. This isn't 1996, when there really was a question on how teams would fare at the gate, and if things faltered, it really could put the team in jeopardy. Sure, bit crowds are nice, but last night and the week before vs. Toronto the weather was terrible (not to mention a couple other games as well), so the numbers are down. In the fall they always draw well, regardless of how they are doing on the field. I care more about how a smart coach like Berhalter was able to figure out how to counter the Revs' one-trick pony. That was Heaps' problem in a nutshell. Once teams figured out how to play against us, he was bereft of ideas. I hope Friedel has some new tricks up his sleeve, otherwise this could be a long year.
I'm not totally sold on that - sometimes in MLS teams that have high expectations don't live up to them. The Toronto team that we played didn't look like a quality team that was missing a few guys and a little worn out. They stunk. Maybe they will turn it around and fly up the table. I just don't think it's a given at all. I couldn't agree more, the Revs and fans have been screwed. Home games have been coming fast and furious and the weather has totally sucked. It may help the Revs get off to a better start than usual, but I would prefer we just accept our fate and get as good as we can at starting the seasons with a road-heavy schedule, then hit our stride when the schedule evens out. This season is going to be like a road race where the finishing kick is straight up hill (for the Revs, not most of their competitors). And our total attendance for the year is going to suck on top of the competitive disadvantage.
Cue the "fixture congestion" noise.... #NERevs will enter the U.S. Open Cup in the 4th round on June 6, meaning they'll play Saturday-Wednesday for three straight weeks beginning this weekend. In total, they'll play six games in 19 days between May 26 and June 13.— Jeff Lemieux (@jeff_lemieux) May 21, 2018
Why? After that game, the Revs have 17 days off, unless they win their first USOC game, then it's a week off. DC and Seattle have played 9 games so far, while a couple of teams have played 13. They're going to have to catch up and have fixture congestion issues as well, aren't they? Of course it is. But again, that applies to everyone. A quick look showed multiple teams that are playing 5 games in that same stretch.
If we can talk about it without getting into the whole KAD/NNN thing...there's some interesting aspects about this years squad heading into this run of matches. On the plus side: All but one of our defenders has at least 1 MLS start so far this season. We have three MLS-level keepers on the squad. We're reasonably set in the midfield, with two players arguably needing more minutes (Rowe and Herivaux). On the minus side: Agudelo's absence is leaving a bigger void than I thought. He's really become a two-way believer in BF's system. Nemeth isn't that guy. Wright is still untested in MLS. We will probably see him start in USOC, not MLS. Femi is MIA. I would think he'd be a decent sub for Teal, should he need some rest, but he's arguably pretty rusty. Anking is supposedly injured - won't see him, I guess. Segbers (?) is on season long loan. The roster could probably use 1-2 more players who can at least provide backfill for USOC. We're at 25 (operating at 23).
In all likelihood only 6/39 voters got the point total right and only 3/39 guessed that the Revs would get less points that they actually achieved. I believe this trend extends over the past two or three seasons. Aren't these boards supposed to be negative? Maybe the NNNs aren't as negative as some would claim.
The numbers speak for themselves: 2018: 30/39 guessed over; 6/39 guessed right; 3/39 guessed under 2017: 10/31 guessed over; 16/31 guessed right; 5/31 guessed under 2016: 26/39 guessed over; 10/26 guessed right; 3/39 guessed under 2015: 28/32 guessed over; 3/32 guessed right; 1/32 guessed under