2018 regular season thread

Discussion in 'New York Red Bulls' started by kokoplus10, Mar 4, 2018.

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  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #176 EvanJ, Oct 9, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2018
    A win over Orlando would give us an MLS record 43 points at home. Toronto broke the record last year with 42 points. If we win both and Atlanta doesn't, we will break the record with 71 points. Toronto's record of 69 points last year could get broken twice. The clubs end at the same time, so we could have the season points record for a couple of minutes or seconds if our game ends before Atlanta's.
     
  2. NorthBank

    NorthBank Member+

    Arsenal; NYRB
    United States
    Mar 29, 2006
    Connecticut
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I like your positive thinking Evan. If the planets align, that final match matchday could end up being pretty damn historic. Maybe not like ManUtd & ManCity in 2012, but I could be sitting in the stands of RBA on Oct.28, with 15000 other folks, keeping one eye on the pitch and the other on my phone for the ATL score.
     
  3. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I would hope that if we win the Supporters Shield they would announce that.

    As a Man Utd fan I don't want to be reminded of 2012. I watched the show NBCSN made about it. The Red Bulls could use help from from former players Altidore and Bradley when Atlanta ends at Toronto. Toronto has a +7 goal differential at home, and we end hosting Orlando, who has a -26 goal differential away. Our game at Philadelphia is much harder than Atlanta hosting Chicago. If Atlanta wins and we draw, we would need a win and an Atlanta loss on the last day, which would make wins tied and make goal differential determine the Supporters Shield just like Man City in 2012. Atlanta leads us by 1 in goal differential and by 7 in goals scored. If Atlanta beats Chicago by 1 while we draw at Philadelphia, Atlanta would lead by 3 points and 2 goal differential with one game left. Then if we lead by 1 and they trail by 2, they could score a stoppage time goal that doesn't affect points but gives them the Supporters Shield on goals scored rather than us winning it on goal differential.

    In addition to Man Utd in 2012, another bad ending for me was as an Islanders fan. I though John Tavares would win the trophy for the 2014-2015 scoring title, but after the Islanders's last game Dallas's Jamie Benn got a goal with 2:05 left and an assist on an empty net goal with 9 seconds left to win it.
     
  4. NorthBank

    NorthBank Member+

    Arsenal; NYRB
    United States
    Mar 29, 2006
    Connecticut
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I had thought we had a better GD than Atlanta, but in looking it up just now I realize I was wrong, you are right. NYRB is +27, ATL is +28.

    There are quite a few permutations in the run-in, which is why I'm just going to cheer us on at Philly, see how things turned out for Atlanta at home hat day, and then depending on if we still have a chance, start thinking about final day permutations.
     
  5. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    4 games to the third power is 81 permutations. If you assume that the easy games of us hosting Orlando and Atlanta hosting Chicago will be won, that leaves 9 permutations. In the 3 permutations where they get more points at Toronto than we get at Philadelphia and the 3 permutations when they do the same thing as us, they win the Supporters Shield. In the 2 permutations where we beat Philadelphia and they draw or lose to Toronto, we win the Supporters Shield. In the 1 permutation where we draw against Philadelphia and they lose to Toronto, points and wins will be tied and it will be decided by goal differential or a later tiebreaker.
     
  6. NorthBank

    NorthBank Member+

    Arsenal; NYRB
    United States
    Mar 29, 2006
    Connecticut
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wow, that's why I'm waiting until after this weekend before I start trying to wrap my head around the possible outcomes of the final Sunday.

    But thank you for doing that. My math is rusty. Would you mind outlining how the permutations math goes for X games with 3 possible outcomes? How does 4 cubed make 81 permutations? 4x4x4 = 64. I'm not doubting you... I just never really learned probability & stats very well.
     
  7. kokoplus10

    kokoplus10 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 5, 2008
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just win baby. Win and pray. There’s your math for ya!
     
  8. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You have it backwards. It's 3^4, not 4^3. One game has 3 outcomes. Two games have 3^2 = 9 outcomes, not 2^3 = 8 outcomes.
     
  9. NorthBank

    NorthBank Member+

    Arsenal; NYRB
    United States
    Mar 29, 2006
    Connecticut
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah I figured that out later. I just got sidetracked when you wrote "4 games to the third power" ;)
     
  10. NorthBank

    NorthBank Member+

    Arsenal; NYRB
    United States
    Mar 29, 2006
    Connecticut
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    WOW! Kaku got MOTM for converting a clutch PK. But perhaps the Video Assistant Referee should reAlly be MOTM?!

    That was a 100% correct call but man was it delayed! More than 2 minutes passed between Bedoya's handball and the PK being awarded.

    So we go to the final match with a small chance for the Shield. LGRB!!
     
  11. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The Red Bulls won 1-0. The announcers said the handball was done be Alejandro Bedoya, but MLS says it was done by Haris Medunjanin. MLS disagreed with MSG by giving MOTM to Robles.

    Atlanta won 2-1 hosting Chicago. We need a win and an Atlanta draw or loss or a draw and an Atlanta loss by at least 2 goals. If we draw and Atlanta loses by 1, wins and goal differential would be tied, and Atlanta would win the goals scored tiebreaker, which they lead by 8.

    D.C. clinched the playoffs and passed Columbus for fifth. Columbus has 48 points, but after the game MSG mistakenly showed them with 49. Montreal goes to New England while Columbus hosts Minnesota. If Montreal wins and Columbus does not, Columbus will blow making the playoffs. Montreal has 17 points in their last 9 games and Columbus has only 9 points in their last 9 games. Before those 9 games, Columbus had a 3 game winning streak with the middle game at Red Bull Arena.
     
  12. NorthBank

    NorthBank Member+

    Arsenal; NYRB
    United States
    Mar 29, 2006
    Connecticut
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #187 NorthBank, Oct 21, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2018
    Thanks for that. Now those are permutations I can get my head around.

    I feel like our chance of winning the Shield are small but that there is still hope! Toronto could be VERY cold and maybe those southern climate dudes like Martinez & Almiron will struggle with shrunken balls [emoji6]

    Meanwhile we are at home, and maybe just maybe the stadium might be more than half full with some extra energetic fans. Plus Orlando have a truly awful record... today excluded of course.

    Edit: Almiron seems to be injured. :)
     
  13. kokoplus10

    kokoplus10 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 5, 2008
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I honestly hope he comes back full strength and we face them in the playoffs and destroy them.

    Some of those Atlanta fans are...well let’s just say they were born on third base and sometimes...just sometimes...it shows.
     
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  14. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The forecast for Sunday in Toronto is 7 degrees, which is 45 degrees Fahrenheit, with light rain and only 1 hour of sun.
     
  15. Zamphyr

    Zamphyr Member

    Mar 31, 2003
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So this game isn't on TV for us ? We're being blocked out by the Ranger & Islanders ?


    But I can watch the Sporks if I want ?
    Great :(
     
  16. miggly

    miggly Member

    Jan 25, 2000
    NYC
    1-0 win on a nice Ettiene Jr goal. Atlanta beaten soundly in Toronto. Shield is ours!
     
  17. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #192 EvanJ, Oct 28, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2018
    It was on MSG2, which only exists when there are multiple games at the same time. MSG is replaying it now from 7:30 P.M. to 9:30 P.M. They're replaying it from 2:30 A.M. to 4:00 A.M., which means you won't get every minute on that replay. If you missed it live, you can DVR a replay.

    https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018...t-mls-points-record-win-3rd-supporters-shield is titled "New York Red Bulls set MLS points record, win 3rd Supporters' Shield." We have won 3 of the last 6 Shields, and nobody else has won 3 of the last 14.

    We broke the records for points with 71 and home points with 43. NYCFC won 3-1 hosting Philadelphia and will host Philadelphia to start the playoffs. MLS uses the same playoff format as the NFL, so we will start against 4 seed D.C., 5 seed Columbus, or 6 seed Philadelphia. We will not know our opponent until after the 4 vs. 5 game. NYCFC got the 3 seed, and we can't play them unless they beat Atlanta and we meet in the Conference Finals. MLS has not announced which games will be Wednesday, which games will be Thursday, or the start times.

    I'm going to start a playoff topic.
     
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  18. T.M. Anthony

    T.M. Anthony Member+

    Jun 13, 2010
    Hudson Valley
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What a wild ride of a regular season. Dealing with the CCL, losing a manager mid-season, chasing first place in the league practically the whole time. And in the end? While the wheels fell off of NYC and ATL down the stretch the team rose to the occasion.

    I love this team. They drive me nuts and stress me out, but moments like this are why it's so satisfying to be a fan.

    IT'S A BANNER YEAR Y'ALL!!! :D
     
  19. kokoplus10

    kokoplus10 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 5, 2008
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We’ve been the best team in MLS for practically the whole season even though the pundits never favored us. Defense is crazy good and that trophy was EARNED.

    ON TO MORE HARDWARE!
     
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  20. NorthBank

    NorthBank Member+

    Arsenal; NYRB
    United States
    Mar 29, 2006
    Connecticut
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm really glad I went to last night's game... on the small chance we'd make some history... which we damn well did! :D

    However the crowd was surprisingly average in size, loudness and passion... excepting the South Ward end which was a bit more packed than usual. But other than those 3 sections, fans in other sections were pretty reserved, except when there was a fast-break or something. The majority of the people seemed to treat this like a typical game, rather than the title opportunity it was.

    Half-full RBA is a double-edged sword. It's hard to imagine it's not a significant problem that the club somehow needs to solve. OTOH, it allows for cheap last-minute tickets, moving to any upper tier section your heart desires (we did this at HT with the belief that we would score some historic goals at the other end, and we did! One anyway), and food/bathroom lines that still allow you to just get back to your seat in time for 2T KO.

    BTW, that Etienne goal, from my vantage, evolved in sorta slow motion, with the partly saved shot heading right for where I was sitting. It was a bit surreal. And the place went nuts that time.

    I've been busy so haven't yet watched a minute of highlights of decision day, so I have no idea why exactly Atlanta seems to have capitulated in the cold of Canada. ;)

    But we all easily followed the other game's score, thanks to a nice move by the club to put their score right under ours on the Jumbotron. Once in a while there'd be a random cheer emanating from South Ward which preceded another Toronto goal. And at one point they put up a TFC goal, only to take it back, presumably because of some VAR overrule.

    I guess a lot of people don't think the Shield matters much. But I do! Maybe because of coming from a lifetime of watching the English League I realize how hard it is to finish as #1 in the standings. Sure, if we can add the Cup, that'll be truly amazing. But it's also more of a crap shoot.

    Still here's hoping RBA gets to host MLS Cup, and maybe just maybe we'll see that stadium 100% full for once... loud and rocking!! ;)
     
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  21. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    https://matchcenter.mlssoccer.com/m...-fc-vs-atlanta-united-fc/details/video/177429 shows the goal that VAR changed to offside. The player who would have had a primary assist was offside when the ball was passed to him.

    I like winning the Shield, but if we win three Shields and no MLS Cups it becomes like the Buffalo Bills losing four consecutive Super Bowls.

    As for the playoffs being a crap shoot, one mistake can eliminate you, and being eliminated by a worse seed is worse than losing to a bad club in the regular season, MLS wrote that winning the Shield is harder than MLS Cup. If the same clubs are competing for two things, they're equally difficult. Some clubs could consistently do better in the playoffs than the regular season, and some clubs could consistently do better in the regular season that the playoffs.
     
  22. ZipSix

    ZipSix BigSoccer Supporter

    Mar 20, 2000
    Boston, MA
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Congratulations on winning the Supporters Shield.
     
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  23. NorthBank

    NorthBank Member+

    Arsenal; NYRB
    United States
    Mar 29, 2006
    Connecticut
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Candidate for nice post of the year! Emphasis on NICE. Seriously. In our age of hate, vitriol and violence. Thank you.
     
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  24. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The disrespect continues with BWP not being one of five MVP Finalists. I'm not complaining about Martinez, Almiron, Rooney, and Ibrahimovic. I'm mad Vela was chosen over BWP. BWP had fewer assists but was better overall. Compared to Vela, BWP had:

    6 more goals (20 to 14)
    10 more goals excluding penalty kicks (20 to 10)
    1 more goal and assist combined (28 to 27)
    .100 higher percentage of shots that were goals (.244 to .144)
    0.18 more goals per minutes (0.71 to 0.53)
    A club with 14 more points than LAFC and a head-to-head win, albeit by 1 at home

    I don't have a problem with honoring new foreigners when they deserve it, but Vela doesn't deserve it. If he was American, had has first professional club be in MLS or USL, scored 5 goals his first year, 10 goals his second year, and 14 goals this year that I'll call a hypothetical third year, and he hadn't played for a national team yet, would he have been an MVP nominee this year with the same statistics?
     
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  25. Woodrow

    Woodrow Member+

    Dec 7, 2001
    Brick City
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    NorthBank repped this.

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