He's in Orange County, which is one of the few non-rural parts of the state which collects crazy-ass Republicans. (Bakersfield and parts of San Diego are the other non-rural parts of the state that elect Republicans.) True story - Dana Rohrabacher went to my high school. When I was in high school, our junior year English teacher brought him in to give a talk - the English teacher was also the speech teacher, and Rohrabacher was his star, his pet, his one speech student who had gone on to greatness, because at the time, he was a speechwriter for Reagan. His talk was about how bad the Russians were. This was 1987. So it was funny when last year, he was identified as Russia's favorite congressman - he and Trump were named as the ones that other Republicans think Russia pay/bribe for their support. (link) Anyways, his district is slowly becoming browner, as the elderly Fox News viewers die off, so he may get unseated in 2018, but he's not the easiest target in the area. Darrell Issa should go first.
FWIW, voting was brisk in East Cobb but heavy. No wait, but more people than I saw when I voted during the Presidental election in 2016.
Did you vote at the same time of day both elections? That would be a big indication that Handel has this.
Pretty much. I will say they moved my polling station and combined it with another (although they kept both precincts separate).
Ossoff and the Democrat in South Carolina are both going to lose. I could have told you this weeks ago and spared you the stress.
The margin is more important than the outcome for these special elections. Right now, Ossoff looks to be about 0.5% better than his primary election - not good enough for a win - and Parnell is doing about 10% better than Clinton. Taking all the 2017 special election results together, we're looking at an 8-point swing from 2016 to 2018 for Democrats.
It shouldn't be close. I live in Georgia's 6th, but Ossoff has a lot of support and spent a lot of money.
Yes, but the Republicans won this district in 2012 by 20 points. It shouldn't be close for a lot of reasons, and they compete. Therefore, his resources and Trump's abysmal approval in the district suggest that those variables should be a counterweight to traditional Republicanism in the district, and therefore should be a close race. Please, Fishy, I beg you. Start thinking. Start actually thinking.
What the ******** does that mean? You're a dumbass. I NEARLY VOTED FOR OSSOFF. I am probably the only one in my family that didn't.. I am well aware Tom Price won by 20 points, I actually know Tom Price. You really need to stop pretending you are smarter than everyone else. Cobb County will decide this... big turnout means Handel wins.
Absolutely. And for people who need wins to stay engaged in politics, it will be. I am not one of those people.
No worries because I don't care what you think, but there are times when people consider a protest vote, and that is what you are seeing in the 6th.
It's not that simple. Yes, some voters are protesting the Trump administration. But this election is turning out to look very similar to 2016's presidential vote, where Trump only won by 1.5% - he was only a candidate. The types of voters who vote for Republicans might be shifting somewhat. In South Carolina, it wasn't a protest vote, but a collapse in Republican turnout, that has led to the race being so close. Ditto with Kansas. In Montana, the Democrat closed the gap because Democrats voted like it was 2012 and Republicans like it was 2008. Further exacerbating matters, the $60 million in the race is roughly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, ensuring ~275k in turnout. Since 310k voted in 2016, a dropoff in 35k isn't going to help one party systematically over the other. So you'd think Republicans would outperform in GA-6 compared to SC-5. It's not as simple as you want. That's why I implore you to actually think. And not lie to people about you "almost" voting Ossoff. You never seriously considered it, and it's insulting to lie to people who yes, do actually know more than you do.
Thanks for your useless analysis and amateur psycho analysis, it was worth the money I spent on it. The 6th might be red, but it ain't Trump... and now it looks like Handel is running away. As I told you Cobb County was going to be key.
You may not know this but I am getting my PhD in political science. This stuff naturally excites me. Other people want wins. I don't begrudge them that.
Hot take. Dems need to figure a way to appear populist to the rubes and reasonable to the establishment.
How would you know anything about trying to appear reasonable to a bunch of competing lunatics??? Pffft
Warm. Running a more progressive candidate/campaign wouldn't have done jack in GA-6. In suburban Atlanta (and Dallas and Houston and Charlotte other Sunbelt cities), the Republicans have been winning by 20 points for decades because folks genuinely agree with what the Republicans have been selling. They haven't been left behind by center and right policies the way that other places have. That said, there are a lot of other places -- especially rural areas -- that are feeling like they've been left behind. Trump got their vote by promising that he was gonna do something for them -- jobs, healthcare, and such. Now, he's a lifelong grifter, so he isn't gonna do that, but that's how he got their vote over all the other Republicans and over Hillary Clinton, all of whom were promising varying degrees of "more of the same." And it's the reason why Bernie Sanders got so much traction in places where you wouldn't have expected it. Obamacare is the classic example of this. To whatever degree you think it's working or not working, it is undoubtedly working a hell of a lot worse in rural areas. Premiums are higher and choice is significantly less -- in terms of insurance, doctors, and hospitals. One part of Obamacare that has been popular in those areas has been the Medicaid expansion, and the reason why Trumpcare v. 1 went down was because of what it would do to the Medicaid expansion, and if Trumpcare v. 2 goes down, it'll be for the same reason. To bring it back to last night, that take would've been absolutely the wrong prescription for GA-6. It might not be the wrong prescription for SC-5. SC-5 has got the Charlotte suburbs of Rock Hill and Fort Mill in it, but it's also got a lot of rural South Carolina it it. When Mick Mulvaney won the seat in 2010, he was the first Republican elected since 1882. It's by no means a liberal area, but it is an area where I think a more populist and progressive message would get a lot more traction. In other words, horses for courses. In some purple districts, a more populist and progressive message will be the winning one. But if you're in GA-6, you gotta chase Romney voters because that's how the district was drawn by the Georgia General Assembly. Hell, prominent Georgia Republicans were copping to that publicly early on, that it was a travesty that it was even moderately competitive.
I actually it's these types of affluent suburb districts that hold the key for 2018. Maybe not in the South so much, but there are GOP held districts on the outskirts of Philly, NYC. One near Chicago, one near DC. There's two of these districts in the Twin Cities are where I live. These are blue state/purple state suburbs in the North. Not post industrial and not economically left behind. I think Dems need at least 33% of their pickups to come from these types of districts.
I am still of the opinion that the magnitude of this swing observed so early in Trump's first year is going to net 80-100 seats. What is going on is not normal. And the GOP cannot govern.