The Pa GOP : Gov, here is the new map. It is very much like the old map. Whagt a bunch of muppets. Washington Post: “On Friday, Republican leaders in the legislature submitted their new map for the governor’s approval. As directed by the Supreme Court, the new map is much more compact than the old one… The new districts generally respect county and municipal boundaries and don’t ‘wander seemingly arbitrarily across Pennsylvania,’ as the state’s Supreme Court wrote.” “Unfortunately for Pennsylvania voters, the new districts show just as much partisan bias as the old ones.” “Under the existing map, Democratic House candidates have routinely received roughly 50 percent of the statewide popular House vote but only five of the state’s 18 House seats. The new map is unlikely to change that.” "Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf (D) has until Thursday to review the new Republican-drawn map. If Wolf rejects it, the Supreme Court will instruct independent redistricting expert Nathaniel Persily of Stanford University to draw a new map from scratch."
After Kevin Nicholson announced he’s running against Tammy Baldwin, both of his parents maxed out to...Tammy Baldwin. Thanksgiving must be a joy there.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/373735-dems-flip-seat-in-florida-state-special-election I believe results like that are more evidence that pollsters are getting their turnout model wrong when it comes to the Generic Ballot. IMO it's underestimating Dem turnout - perhaps greatly. Anways, you are seeing the real life effect of Eric Holder's efforts to win state level races.
Nate Cohn brought this up a few days ago. Same with Dave Wasserman. Both data points need to be taken together.
Nate brings up the valid point that in low turn out elections, the enthusiastic base is going to be overly represented when compared to a normal midterm. Basically saying that the dems have less room for growth compared to the special elections because their base is already activated. I don't know how right he is about that. My suspicion is that polls are currently underestimating Dem strength. The last 2 mid terms, polls have underestimated the passion of the party out of power. Thinks that's happening again
Well I'll be ********ed. https://politicalwire.com/2018/02/14/yard-signs-helped-defeat-roy-moore/ I might have to amend my previous beliefs on yard signs.
You might be right My house, when it’s completed is in Colorado Springs....5 Military installations. No way do i put signs in my yard or stickers on my car. Those people are rabid.
Pennsylvania map is out: http://www.philly.com/philly/news/p...sional-districts-2018-elections-20180219.html
This map promotes competitive elections and statewide partisan share over compactness. There are trade-offs to both sets. It will be interesting to see the court battles ahead.
The new map creates 8 Clinton districts and 10 Trump districts, with Democratic opportunities in a few more pic.twitter.com/kN41CKOksF— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) February 19, 2018 Incredible turn of events. Great day for the democrats to be perfectly honest. EDIT: One downside: A caveat for Dems: two Lancaster Dems, Christina Hartman & Jess King, have raised $300k+ for #PA16. Now that $$ is pretty useless & Dems need a Harrisburg candidate against Rep. Scott Perry (R) in new #PA10 instead.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) February 19, 2018
Something tells me that won't be a problem. There are hundreds of qualified female liberals in Harrisburg.
I also saw that a vast majority of the new districts, Clinton and Trump won less than 55% of the vote.. It certainly makes the PA house seats more competitive. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the impending federal lawsuit now that a map has been drawn by the PA state supreme court..
I dunno? It is pretty darn compact.. only 13 counties have been split (previous iterations had between 15 and 28) and many of the boundaries follow county lines..
It is, but they could have prioritized compactness over competition even more and made the map 7-11 R advantage, according to Wasserman.
Doesn't seem to be the case: The new map creates 8 Clinton districts and 10 Trump districts, with Democratic opportunities in a few more pic.twitter.com/kN41CKOksF— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) February 19, 2018
Q polls, generally reliable, give the D +15 in the generic ballot. A new Quinnipiac poll finds American voters prefer Democrats in control of Congress by 15 points, 53% to 38%, including independent voters by 47% to 36%. For comparison, the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Democrats with a 48.3% to 39.7% lead.