2018 Midterm Election Thread

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Boloni86, Feb 7, 2017.

  1. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    SF North Bay
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    That has been my impression ever since I moved to the US 15 years ago. Due to turnout, special elections are the least likely elections for Democrats to prevail, followed by midterms, with presidential election days the most favorable. This is the opposite of Denmark, in which leftist candidates actually do better in most special elections or by-elections. I dunno, maybe it's a California thing, because turnout is always miserable for special elections here, although I see that Texas seems to have the same problem.

    https://www.expressnews.com/news/lo...Democrats-Tuesday-was-the-latest-13613920.php

    But yes, maybe there is greater reason to be hopeful in the age of Trump.
     
  2. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As superdave said, since Nov 2016 the Dems have done very well. The article you linked seems to focus specifically on Texas, and maybe even San Antonio.
     
  3. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    SF North Bay
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    Better than before Trump's election, but still mixed results. You're in Wisconsin? Dems just lost the Wisky Supreme Court special election, losing to a hard-right conservative. Turnout problems, right?
     
  4. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If the quote said “Since November 2018”, you might be able to say “mixed results”, but it’s hard to argue they haven’t done “very well” since November 2016...
     
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  5. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    SF North Bay
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    In special elections, Dems flipped two house seats, and one Senate seat in the 2017-1018 election cycle. The flip of one of the House seats (PA-7), was due at least in part to the new map drawn by the PA Supreme Court, while the Senate flip was against a right-wing child molester, which was apparently a bit too much even for Alabama. Granted, Dems ran closer races in most of the special elections than before, but only had those three flips. Probably my biggest disappointment was the failure to flip the Mississippi Senate seat against the openly racist Cindy Hyde-Smith.

    California District 34 General: 4/4/17
    Runoff: 6/6/17 Democratic Hold

    Kansas District 4 General: 4/11/17 Republicans Hold

    Georgia District 6 General: 4/18/17
    Runoff: 6/20/17 Republicans Hold

    South Carolina District 5 Primary: 5/2/17
    General: 6/20/17 Republicans Hold

    Montana At-Large General: 5/25/17 Republicans Hold

    Utah District 3 Primary: 8/15/17
    General: 11/07/17 Republicans Hold

    Alabama Senate GOP Runoff: 9/26/17
    General: 12/12/17 Democratic Flip

    Pennsylvania District 18 General: 3/13/18 Democratic Flip

    Arizona District 8 Primary: 2/27/18
    General: 4/24/18 Republicans Hold

    Ohio District 12 Primary: 5/8/18
    General: 8/7/18 Republicans Hold

    Texas District 27 General: 6/30/18 Republicans Hold

    Michigan District 13 General: 11/6/18 Democratic Hold

    Minnesota Senate General: 11/6/18 Democratic Hold

    Mississippi Senate General: 11/6/18 Republicans Hold

    New York District 25 General: 11/6/18 Democratic Hold

    Pennsylvania District 7 General: 11/6/18 Democratic Flip

    Pennsylvania District 15 General: 11/6/18 Republicans Hold

    https://www.opensecrets.org/races/special-elections
     
  6. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    https://ballotpedia.org/Special_elections_to_the_116th_United_States_Congress_(2019-2020) has a table. The formatting isn't great, so click on the link if you want to see it better:

    "Results of special elections to Congress (1986-2012)
    Election cycle
    Total special elections U.S. House elections Seats changing partisan control U.S. Senate elections Seats changing partisan control
    2011-2012 11 11 None None None
    2009-2010 15 10 3 (2 Democratic gains; 1 Republican gain) 5 2 (all Republican gains)
    2007-2008 14 12 3 (2 Republican gains; 1 Democratic gain) 2 None
    2005-2006 12 12 3 (all Democratic gains) None None
    2003-2004 6 6 None None None
    2001-2002 6 5 2 (all Democratic gains) 1 1 (Republican gain)
    1999-2000 9 8 1 (Republican gain) 1 1 (Democratic gain)
    1997-1998 3 3 None None None
    1995-1996 11 9 1 (Republican gain) 2 1 (Democratic gain)
    1993-1994 9 6 1 (Republican gain) 3 3 (all Republican gains)
    1991-1992 10 7 2 (all Republican gains) 3 1 (Democratic gain)
    1989-1990 10 8 1 (Democratic gain) 2 None
    1987-1988 12 12 3 (2 Democratic gains; 1 Republican gain) None None
    1985-1986 8 8 1 (Republican gain) None None
    Total 136 117 21 (11 Democratic gains; 10 Republican gains) 19 9 (6 Republican gains; 3 Democratic gains)"

    That is only for Congress, so it excludes the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

    2 of the 3 House vacancies are in North Carolina. Tomorrow there are primaries for District 3, which elected unopposed Republican Walter B. Jones Jr., who died of ALS (Lou Gehrig's disease) on February 10. To win a primary, a candidate needs at least 30 percent. If one or both parties does not have anybody get 30 percent, there will be a runoff primary on July 9 and a general election on September 10. If one primary is sufficient, the general election will be on July 9.

    District 9 had Republican Mark Harris win slightly but not be seated by the House because he worked with somebody who was charged with crime about absentee ballots. That election is being redone with primaries on May 14, either runoff primaries or the general election on September 10 (the same day as District 3 will have its general election if they need a runoff), and if a runoff primary is needed, the general election will be on Election Day on November 5.

    Pennsylvania's District 12 had Republican Tom Marino resign to work in private practice on January 23. The special election will be on May 21 without primaries first.

    All three of those districts had Republicans before the 2018 elections and had Republicans win the votes in 2018 (including when the votes weren't accepted), so Democrats have nothing to lose.

    Since special elections are not from a random sample of the population, they aren't a great measure.

    In addition to a possible House election in North Carolina-9, the most important decisions on November 5 include governors of Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The Republican incumbent is running in Kentucky, the Democratic incumbent is running in Louisiana, and the Republican incumbent cannot run in Mississippi because he reached his term limit. Federal law says that states cannot make term limits for members of Congress, but they can make term limits for state offices.

    In the 2000s and 2010s so far, 30 members of Congress died in office. 22 were in the House and 8 were in the Senate. 14 of them died of cancer. These include having "cancer" in the name and other cancers like leukemia. 19 were Democrats and 11 were Republicans. 24 were men and 6 were women.
     
  7. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    There was a special election yesterday in my neck of the woods. It's a thoroughly white, largely rural neck of the woods; the kind of place that used to be called a tossup. The Democrat won with 74% of the vote. (Not a typo.)

    My takeaway is that the Republican Party has just absolutely cratered in places where they used to rely on independents and moderates to win.
     
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  8. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's a thoroughly white, largely rural neck of the woods;


    That sounds like Republican territory, unless you are over estimating how rural it is.
     
  9. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    To NY, it's rural a.f. But to people from downstate Illinois, thanks to the rumors that minorities live nearby, and proximity to public transit, it's practically the inner city.
     
  10. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That is ignoring the 2018 election
    https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin_Supreme_Court_elections,_2018

    And to Governor's race with the defeat of Walker (and the Republicans have a very substantial network here in the state, so the defeat of Walker is very notable).

    In terms of this most recent vote, it was so heavily under promoted that even I missed the vote (I was also moving at that time and had not updated my registration yet - which is not a real excuse).
     
  11. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here's one of the candidates in NC-9.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Here's an ad from one of them.



    Interesting look into the GOP zeitgeist.
     
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  12. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    Is he a parody of something?

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Smurfquake

    Smurfquake Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 8, 2000
    San Carlos, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That clown ad said he was "battle-tested". I looked up the guy's background, and he doesn't appear to have any military service. I'm wondering if "battle-tested" is some kind of code that right wingers or Q followers understand.
     
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  14. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    According to Trump, the never ending battle is the battle against venereal disease.
     
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  15. taosjohn

    taosjohn Member+

    Dec 23, 2004
    taos,nm
    I'd rather vote for Jimmy Rushing...
     
  16. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And how about the cigar position...
     
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  17. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Remember the 2018 Florida race for governor.

     
  18. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yup. And DeSantis has come
    out as a pragmatist.
     
  19. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  20. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Reading that and makes me wonder if this was about on-line schools and/or charter schools, both of which are huge in Florida.
     
  21. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    Gonna leave this here:

     

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