1. You defended the economic anxiety of the very fine people on the right. But we all know that it's not about money but about power over people different to them. 2. You minimized the effects of unprecedented roll purging. It's not usual procedure when it increases significantly and is done with the clear goal of hurting the opposition. 3. If the dems do not win at least the House in November, it is the end of democracy in the US. Yeah, the GOP-Nazis will eventually fall, but that will mean that a lot of violence and pain will be ensured until the US finally gets rid of the white supremacist party. If you ask me, I think it will be very very close to know until the end of election day.
You guys do realize that in Georgia the 54,000 registration purge was based on a law. I have a busy morning so I won't look up the name of the law, but it's something along the lines the records match law. In other words if there's a discrepancy between the registration and the record on file, you get purged. This next part is very important: In Georgia you can still vote with a provisional ballot as long as you correct the discrepancy within 2 years. So these purged people can still vote. Is the law anal? Yes, of course. You can be purged for something as little as a missing hyphen or a missing letter in your name. But this is hardly the only arena that it happens in. I know of plenty of people with nightmare stories of interacting with government when there are transcription errors in their records. Your challenge is to show me how the law is illegal or unconstitutional. I honestly don't know enough about the law to know one way or another. If I was in charge I would obviously err on the side of the voter. Having an emotional meltdown on the internet doesn't convince me. Show me specifically where you win this argument in court. Meanwhile my suggestion for people running registration drives is to emphasize the importance of correctly filling out the forms. I know it feels informal when you're just talking to someone with a clipboard outside a supermarket or a church. But you have to treat this just like getting your passport or social security card. Accuracy matters. Of course voting is a right. But with every right come responsibilities, and as someone who has worked in elections I know first hand that voter rolls are a disaster so there needs to be a little help from the voter too in order to make it work.
It's not about the law but the administrative action So lets say I am allowed to purge registrations according to law This does not allow me to target only black voters for deletion
No, but you can find some law or rule that if applied would target mostly black (or voters of the other party) people. At least that is what North Carolina tried to do.
Exactly. So you have to prove to me that the criteria was applied only to black voters. I can already tell you what the defense will say. Cause and effect. The criteria was applied uniformly, it just so happened that more black people got caught in the dragnet. In other words the policy is not the cause of the result. The cause is that more black people happen to have discrepancies with their records. Now of course a court could still decide that the policy was unfair because it disproportionally affects a group of people and thus interferes with one of their rights. You have to convince a judge that demanding matching records is somehow wrong. But that's an uphill battle IMO because matching records is a fairly routine standard across many government agencies. Now, in the case of Georgia I think a logical judge should at least meet Democrats halfway. From what I've heard, some registrations were thrown out for something as small as a missing accent ... for example Andre vs. André. If this is true, it's obviously absurd and ridiculous, and I expect it to get challenged in court. What you don't understand is that I'm actually on your side. I want to protect voting rights and expand them as much as possible. Where we differ is the fact that I want to trust the process. The "democracy is dead" rhetoric that you use is self defeating. It signals to Democratic voters that all is lost and it's all futile. You're essentially discouraging voters from participating. Instead of motivating voters to retake control of the state apparatus and fix these problems through the system, you're creating an alternative where the only option is what ... anarchy? Civil war? IMO this is just as dangerous and irresponsible as the "illegals are voting" people who were pushing Republicans in 2016 to distrust election results.
Black people is usually poorer and more transient, hence their access to those records is more difficult. It's more likely that they moved within the last couple of years, it's likely that they have names misspelled in their legal documents. Looking for these discrepancies, KNOWING who is more likely to be affected is precisely the name of the game. Trump has packed the courts with activist judges and have a SC that demolished voting rights. You are expecting fairness when in reality the game is rigged. You are expecting fair calls in La Bombonera against Boca as a visiting team, that won't happen; it won't be a highway robbery but all the iffy calls will go one way. [sorry @argentine soccer fan but it is what it is]. 1. How can you trust the process in states where the GOP is cheating? True, they are only cheating "at the edges," but that has sufficed in 2016. 2. I haven't said is dead, but that 2018 is probably the last chance and that is really a close call. IOW, you do need to go out and vote and act, but don't be surprised if we don't win, since the game is rigged. 3. We'll see what the alternatives are after the election, but yes, be prepared for civil unrest.
Disagree it's important to sound the alarm when GOP is cheating at an unprecedented level According to Maddow the number of Georgia voter registratons Republican Secretary of State (now candidate for Governor) Brian Kemp's office has canceled since 2012: 1.4 million (Nearly half of those canceled in the last year alone). So in otherwords, he has deleted 700K voters, likely to be democrat - in the very race he is running in - via corruption
I tell you, the fact that politicians trying to win elections are doing completely UNETHICAL things to do so is actually far less disheartening than the amount of people who simply bury their heads in the sand and are willing to accept that behavior without a fight (or alternatively because it is their side that is the beneficiary). How do you "go high" in the face of this?
You vote and if you win you do not call Mission accomplish (inset Bush jr pic) and then go home for 8 years (yes I exaggerate). Republican white-lash was strong and quick after Obama, Democrats never understood what happened, as long as Obama was President and won re-election, we took our eye from the ball and Republicans took advantage. So vote and vote often in all elections, local, state and federal. You can say voter anxiety from having a black president, and perhaps is true, but how do you as a party explain losing so much ground. Is the coalition that elected Obama good to win the presidency (even if is lost in the E.C in 2016) but the coalition is shit in winning local elections? the party should have done some rethinking long ago. This is why the GOP is doing what they are doing, just like when they refused to confirm all those lower court judges. The GOP is playing chess (even if unethical), while we democrats argue about how we should play checkers or Parcheesi. https://www.economist.com/united-st...tries-to-regain-control-of-state-legislatures BTW, 2018 is important for playing defense and stopping the hemorrhage, use the anti-President anger that naturally occurs in our system to recover. The big election is 2020, Democrats need to keep the anger (hard to do) and do well in 2020 (maybe a better map) That is when redistricting will happen after the census, you do not want Republicans controlling the majority of State Governments after 2020. 2018 can be to protect the court, 2020 should be to protect the party from being gerrymandered (and voter purged out of existence).
@Boloni86 The group says the lawsuit was initiated by journalist Greg Palast as part of his research for Rolling Stone magazine. Other similar federal suits will be filed against other state officials around the nation in conjunction with the Georgia suit. They claim that during his research, Palast uncovered a so-called 'purge list' from what is called the 'Crosscheck Program' allegedly supplied to the secretary of state's office by Kris Kobach, Kansas Secretary of State. From https://www.11alive.com/article/new...700000-voters-from-georgia-rolls/85-600064018 So the year that Kemp is running for Gov., is the first year that Crosscheck is used and it purges 70K visitors. Yup Totally Normal Also you look up the North Dakota decision. You can argue it can be done legally but in-between the Primary and the General? When do people have time to change to the new system.
There is a story about a ref who died, and went up to the Pearly Gates, where he was met by Saint Peter, who told him: “I am sorry, but refs are not allowed in heaven. There is no such thing as an honest ref.” The ref replied, “I beg to differ, I am an honest ref. In fact, I was the ref at la Bombonera, for a title match between Boca and River. Boca was winning 1 to 0, and in the 94th minute, as I was about to blow the whistle and end the match, with Boca winning the title, I saw a handball in Boca’s penalty area. It was a judgement call, it could have gone either way, but I felt in my heart that it was a penalty, so I called the penalty for River.” Saint Peter said, “you know, I’m a fan of Argentine fútbol, i’ve followed it from up here over the years, and yet I don’t recall the event that you describe. When did it happen? The ref looked at his watch and replied, “about five minutes ago”.
OK, so Kemp denies having used the "Crosscheck Program". First thing I'd like to see is the proof. If there's proof then he's on record for lying and will certainly lose his case. Next I'd like to know what exactly is illegal about the "Crosscheck Program"? I'm not asking rhetorically since I really would like to know since I'm not very familiar.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_Voter_Registration_Crosscheck_Program Key part is rosscheck was developed in 2005 by Kansas and the Secretary of State of Kansas Ron Thornburgh, The program is administered by the office of the Kansas Secretary of State[5] as a free service to all member states. Tell me what you know about Kansas SoS Kris Kobach? They are literally finding innovative ways to purge people from voter rolls. Your question of illegality and faith in the law is as blind as someone who believes that if a cop did something wrong then the trial will show it and he will be found guilty.
The wiki is a good start. But to explain the issue with an example: Kevin Williams. Any two Kevin Williams with the same birthdate will turn up as a "match" regardless of SSN. There are 6500 Kevin Williams over 13. Probably 4000 registered. Probably 2/3 of them are born within 25 years of one another...the prime Kevin Williams age (people named "Kevin Williams" age + registration rate age + mortality rate age). For any given Kevin Williams in that "peak Kevin Williams" age, there is roughly a 30% chance that there is another registered Kevin Williams living somewhere else in the US with the same birthday. In the real world, there are roughly 2700 "peak age" Kevin Williams. There is a >99% chance that at least 740 will be matched to at least one other Kevin Williams. Note: not all states use Crosscheck, but the frequencies are still the same. This is quite simply the crudest tool you could come up with. With the right data, you could set up the database in a weekend. With somebody who even remotely knew what they were doing, you could cobble together migration estimates via the census to determine better frequencies of "false" positives very easily. Which is what data scientists have done on a more sophisticated level. Studies estimate that roughly 99% of "positives" are false.
Back to the numbers....Reuters is very close to the CNN poll. + 12 for the good guys. Generic Congressional Ballot:Democrats 50% (+12)Republicans 38%@Reuters/@Ipsos 10/3-9https://t.co/CP2BiAhXt0 pic.twitter.com/Ud7iQOyY4B— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 12, 2018
I got an email from Kamala's org that Heitkamp was down 45-44, anyone know what poll is saying that? If it is true, no wonder they purged the Native Americans. Btw, @Boloni86 thoughts on the ND ruling?
And this is my point to @Boloni86 It is is not aobut being illegal, it is finding gray areas to cheat and there being not enough time to fix it or go to court and when it does go to court the GOP is stacking the circuit courts and Supreme courts to make sure these ways of cheating are not illegal, so there you go.
Just a good Beto story, I stole from the 606 thread. Some people don't need to wait 30 minutes on a voting line to give up on democracy https://t.co/VhHKvH7Q7q
Numbers this big would clearly show up in the voting results. Georgia only has around 4 million voting in Presidential election years. But if you look at the numbers, those supposed massive cuts don't show up.
These purges work on very small margins. Can they make a difference in a super tight race? Of course ... see Al Gore. I just don't like the alarmist headlines like "700K purged!!!" or "1.5 million purged!!". It's very deceptive to throw numbers like that around without context. There is no doubt that this is a real fight around the edges. But let's not pretend that Democrats aren't fighting back in blue states. I think Oregon passed an automatic registration bill last year. I think here in Maryland I get automatically registered through the DMV database. The overwhelming majority of us will be able to vote if it really matters to us. FFS Dems won in Alabama. Dems need to go into November like a Tasmanian devil and just win. The only narrative Dems need now is "winning". Leave the self defeating excuses for after the election.
Considering automatic registration some sort of "fighting back" and an equivalence seems all sorts of ********ed up ass backwards to me.
This is the dumbest paragraph ever written. The overwhelming majority of us didn't vote for the orange asshole. Voter suppression laws played a part in that victory but so too did voter apathy. It is called sounding the alarm. There maybe enough independent voters to overcome the and the purges but they need to let the public know. Georgia prior to this was using the Aw/DA to close voting locations in black rural areas.
W-Po and Harris confirm the CNN poll. Both double digits for the D's JUST IN: House Democratic candidates lead Republicans by 11 points among registered voters, 53-42%, per new @ABC News/Washington Post poll. https://t.co/utFochAqC6 pic.twitter.com/zoRAUlsFxR— ABC News (@ABC) October 14, 2018 Generic Congressional Ballot:Democrats 50% (+10)Republicans 40%@Harris_X_/@ScottWRasmussen 10/7-12https://t.co/OZWgVQp1QY— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 14, 2018