I'll have some more thoughts on homegrowns later, but let's start with the current roster. Some guesses on who may/may not be back next year, contract info from Transfermarkt: Contract through Nov. 2017 Matej Dekovic - draftee loaned to Tulsa, injured most of season, seems to have a good head for the game, appears over matched @ LB in USL, may be capable of playing CB, team option for 2018 not likely to return Collin Fernandez - 2015 homegrown loaned to Tulsa, consistent first choice player at #6 but status in jeopardy, surprisingly good in the tackle and can sparkle on the ball but prone to mistakes not worthy of a 3rd year pro, may have plateaued, tossup whether 2018 team option will be exercised Patrick Doody - 2015 homegrown deputized @ LB last two seasons, top flight crosser of the ball, all other skills replacement level, coaching bias against marginal American players and arrival of Jorge Corrales means it's unlikely 2018 option renewed Calistri - 2016 homegrown RW is enjoying a productive loan spell in Tulsa, average physical & technical ability offset by work rate and "fox in the box" ability to poach goals, not tip of the spear but could be effective in Alvarez role, 2018 return likely Contract through Dec. 2017 Daniel Johnson - West Ham Academy product drafted in 1st round, injury marred first season, impressive dribbling ability and attacking instinct, thin - easily taken off the ball, could flourish as winger or even #10, likely to be back in 2018 Bastian Schweinsteiger - Bayern Munich & Germany legend brought a desperately needed spotlight to club, his play was pivotal during May/June win streak but fatigue/injury took its toll on Basti & the Fire, announcement as part of German TV's WC broadcast team/rumored locker room issues & notoriously cheap owner cast doubt whether either side's mutual options for 2018 will be renewed Arturo Alvarez - 2016 assist leader rarely found that form in 2017, at 32 years old not likely to return for 2018 Dax McCarty - as good as advertised after shock preseason swoop, quality of play raised USMNT profile, top class footballing mind - great interview, best w/Basti as partner - play suffered some after Nats duty & Basti absence, certain to return as captain in 2018 Jorge Bava & Michael Harrington - why waste words, gone Juninho - loaned from Tijuana, highly touted early off season pick-up, additions of Basti & Dax forced a square pegged 3 CDM formation, after he was injured team's winning run in his absence made him surplus, coach's favorite - great attitude offset by DP slot means he likely will not be back in 2018 Joao Meira - option surprisingly exercised after sketchy 2016, settled in to strong CB partnership first half of 2017, rumored to be homesick, probably not returning Richard Sanchez - loaned mid-season from Tampico Madiera (Mex 2) as insurance back-up, played every minute for Mexico's U-17 WC winning team, failed to find first team football at any of his senior stops since, not likely back for 2018 Matt Lampson - shared 2016 starting duties with now departed Sean Johnson, career back-up became default 2017 starter after Jorge Bava's poor form/injury, 2018 return to probably compete for #2 spot since club likely to seek upgrade at starter David Arshakyan - still young by MLS standards, any hope he could lead the line faded into squad player ether, rumored to have refused loan to Tulsa, almost certainly not returning in 2018 Brandt Bronico - draftee with 10 appearances mostly with Tulsa, coaches seem to like him, return a toss-up Matt Polster - 2015 ROY candidate & fringe USMNT player fell afoul of coach's bias against American players and injury before locking down the RB spot, possible January Camp Cupcake invitation, certain to return Drew Conner - 2016 homegrown was fill in CM & RB during injury crisis, making most of his chances & becoming more confident every game, should at least return as squad player Brandon Vincent - 2016 #3 MLS draft pick overall, career started slowly now solid starter & adding more to the attack, addition of Corrales may indicate club doubts but should return as a first choice player Johnathan Campbell - 2016 draftee made 34 starts over Meira as a rookie but lost his 2017 starting spot to Meira, solid MLS CB will be back to compete for starting job in 2018 Stefan Cleveland - draftee loaned to Tulsa recalled briefly after Bava injury & before Sanchez arrival, only 2 appearances at Tulsa due to injury & veteran starter, tossup whether he returns as a #2-3 choice keeper Djordje Mihailovic - 18 yo 2017 homegrown gaining valuable experience due to Basti/Juninho injuries & Dax call-ups, rumors of coach's pet favoritism souring locker room offset by upwardly trending play, despite rumors of contract salary spike for 2018 he'll be around for at least a few more years Contract through 2018 John Goosens - 2016 preseason sensation living up to billing as talented but brittle, a luxury when healthy likely to face MLS re-entry draft Michael de Leeuw - 2016's goal scorer became 2017's front line grinder without a real position, best as second striker, popular in the club and with fans, under contract through next season with 2019 club option Johan Kappelhof - reliable CB likely to be back David Accam - club option already exercised for 2018, few doubt he'd like a move to Europe and possibly a bigger paycheck & more national team exposure, should get it if he and club don't overvalue him, probably gone in January Luis Solignac - spot starter, decent squad player at cap friendly number, may be close to green card but should be back anyways Christian Dean - Third overall pick in 2014 MLS draft has never lived up to billing mostly due to injuries, will either enter MLS re-entry draft and not return in 2018 or get a new deal at a cap friendly number Nemanja Nikolic - started hot then cooled off after defenses started sitting back & service dried up, rumors of asking for new deal & locker issues may see him return to Europe despite his and his family's comfort with Chicago, probably back but maybe not
I have been thinking about starting this thread for the past couple of weeks, so thank you for starting it. I was holding off until after the regular season, but here it is, so let the speculation begin!
Analysis: Drop him. Shouldn't be, but probably will be dropped. Shouldn't be, but probably will be dropped. Oh yeah. Need to see how he is after his injury, but he seems like he has potential. I'm gonna say he's sticking around. He gone. The true leader in the locker room. Yup. I think he's traded. He has to be. Safe travels, dude. He's going back home. I disagree. I think he's sticking around. I think he also stays, but I pray to Daisy we find a new GK. His contract will expire and we will rejoice. All coaches but Pauno. Shouldn't be gone, but will be. Yeah, he's sticking around. I will affirm that he was our most important player this season. Better be back. Has shown to be a good depth piece and is much more cost effective of one than Juninho. Corrales was an emergency move. Vincent is on his way up. We're keeping him. What have I said about him? He's pretty dang good. He's probably getting dropped if we get a new GK. So I guess that means he's as good as gone. Refer to these threads: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/djordje-mihailovic-starting-is-killing-this-team.2068941/ https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/is-pauno-racist.2071971/ He's sticking around as long as Pauno's still here. I think he's still staying. Yeah, he's injury prone; but when he's not on the table, he's pretty good. He's staying. Same. He's going to Europe. I think everyone's figured that one out. He's staying. Hopefully just on the bench. This is the biggest toss-up. I think we give him another chance. I will... not comment on that.
I have a feeling Accam will not be on the 2018 roster, we just pickup up his option to get transfer money.
I thought I read somewhere that Accam's injury will require surgery in the offseason. If that is the case, I think Accam would get sold in the summer instead of January. Either way, he's gone.
Here is my list and what I think SHOULD happen: Definitely should stay Nikolic (he is a bargain, even at the third or fourth highest salary for a Fire player ever) Bastian (his influence on and off the field are not be underestimated) McCarty (hard working, smart player) DeLeeuw (best offensive link we have, can play multiple positions) Kappelhoff (no need to drop a good steady center back) Polster (can play multiple roles, seems steady at right back) Campbell (lost his starting job, but a solid player) Johnson (should promise early, and he is relatively inexpensive, always a positive trait for Mr. Hauptman) Should stay Accam (Not sure he wants to stay. Also, best "transfer bait" we have. We should keep if he wan can. We must replace him if he goes) Mihailovic (Subject to some scorn, but super young and still growing, physically and as a player. Let's see what he can do) Vincent (Most divisive player on the roster at the moment. The league loves him, Fire fans not so much. Still a player with potential) Sanchez (He has looked good in his limited opportunities. His huge salary bump might weigh against him staying) Meira (Like Kappelhoff, a decent center back. Unlike Kappelhoff, an aging center back. Out of contract.) Conner (Decent bench player. I have not been impressed enough to make him a definite stay) Doody (I now understand that Drew Conner and Patrick Doody are not the same person. Again decent bench player, not much more) Calistri (He has shown flashes of being serviceable) Corrales (well, we signed him, we should see what he has) Bronico (Another bench level player) Goosens (if healthy, if not-gone) Should go: Alvarez (Age and salary work against him staying) Solignac (Salary is ridiculous for a glorified bench player. He has been good at time, but he is so frustrating to watch. He may have "soft feet" but he often fails to put them to good use) Lampson (Enough with this two year experience that cost us the second longest-tenured goalkeeper. It was the one position that did not to be messed with last season) Dekovic (No one has seen enough of him to make an evaluation, but he apparently was not even able to play in Tulsa) Cleveland (the player and the city) Fernandez (He was supposed to be the "wunderkind" two years ago. Still very young, just not so much wonder) Gone: Harrington (Should have been gone the day BEFORE he was signed. Quite possibly the single worst Chicago Fire player [who received significant playing time] ever) Juninho ($700,000 for 1 goal and 2 assists in 22 games just does not cut it) Bava (What in the holy hell were the "soul mates" thinking? He is not a bad keeper, but he was 36 more expensive than Sean Johnson and injury prone) Arshakyan (I sort of feel bad for Dave the moderately tall. He is a full international for Armenia, was apparently a prolific goal scorer in Lithuania, but has been less than useless for the Fire) Dean (Remember our major "midseason" acquisition? Neither does anyone else, including Paunovic) Here is what I think WILL happen: Gone: Bastian (not renewed, due to low ball offer) Accam (sold for less than we could have received for him in the summer) McCarty (traded for reduced value to a contending team) Kappelhoff (salary reduction victim) Harrington (good riddance) Dean Alvarez Arshakyan Juninho Lampson Cleveland Dekovic Fernandez Goossens Miera Bronico (although no one will notice) Stays: Nikolic (he will be disgruntled, though, and less productive in 2018) Solignac (he will be shopped, but no one will pick up his salary) Johnson Mihailovic Calistri Doody Conner Polster Campbell Vincent Corrales Sanchez ...and we start over, again.
loved everything in the analysis but this: [quote} Brandon Vincent - 2016 #3 MLS draft pick overall, career started slowly now solid starter & adding more to the attack, addition of Corrales may indicate club doubts but should return as a first choice player[/quote] I would say the exact opposite about his development. he's regressed as a defender, and consequently appears to have become timid in the attack, killing more plays than Logan Pause on his best day. He's stopped making attacking runs off the ball, and was every opponents 1st choice to attack for the last 3 months. I agree he's likely to return as a 1st choice player, but this is more an indictment of Nimrod and Pawno than praise for Vincent.
A lot of the cheap/"free" players (home grown) will stay. If Moreira leaves, then we lose depth, I think Campbell can do well to cover the spot, the issue would be if we lose him of Kepp to injury. Losing Bastian would hurt, maybe if we work it in his contract that he is allowed to leave for 6 weeks to do his gig for German TV during the WC but then comeback (hopefully not too out of shape) maybe he will be better health wise at the end of the 2018 season. if we lose Bastian we should keep Junihio. Nico does tend to bounce around teams and leagues, I hope he comes back, he is a DP that has probably too high of a salary to be bought down. I believe these are the April numbers. I do not know what the Max salary is going to be next year (TAM and GAM will go up) We could have 8 players (well 7 Djordje is gone for sure) that may need some GAM to buy down below max salary (we can only have 3 players above max salary outside the cap). https://www.statista.com/statistics/551800/player-expenses-of-chicago-fire/
That is good news, I mean he is gone regardless, but at least we did not waste so much cap room on him this year.
A couple of these are wrong. Dax is on $412,000, not $500,000. They have Djordie off by a factor of 10. His "official" salary is $80,000.04. WTF is up with the $.04? Here is the list: https://mlsplayers.org/salary-guide/ Juninho is stealing money at $700,000+ Solignac is stealing money at $328,000 Joao Meira is a steal at $165,000. He is only making $30,000 more than Michael F'n Harrington!
Dax is $500k. We know this because NYRB had to use GAM to buy him down below DP. This is probably the guaranteed and not base.
2017 MLS Player Salaries: April 15, 2017: 2017 Guaranteed Club Last Name First Name Pos Base Salary Compensation CHI McCarty Dax M $ 400,000.00 $ 500,000.00
I'm sticking with a simple prediction that has been accurate about 80% of the time. 2018 Roster speculation? Worse than 2017.
The Fire have SEVEN players under contract for next year! Just seven. If anyone doubts that this was supposed to be a one-off year, that rather proves it. Who are the "lucky" seven" Johan Kappelhof, Christian Dean, Jorge Corrales, David Accam, Michael de Leeuw, Nemanja Nikolic and Luis Solignac. Yes, our signed defenders are Kappelhoff, the almost never used (and no reason to have picked up) Dean, and the minor-league Corrales. "Dax McCarty, Brandon Vincent, and Matt Polster expected to have their options picked up. The only two players who are not under the Fire’s control as to whether or not to retain are Bastian Schweinsteiger and Joao Meira." This is pathetic. When McCarty commented: "According to Dax McCarty, as this was also locker clean-out day, he said that the club needs to improve in four areas: “goalkeeping, defending, midfield, and attacking.” He was not kidding at all.
Just wait to the MLS changes the transfer rules and the teams will now able to keep most of the transfer fee instead of HQ.
Good bye: Accam Nikolic (maybe) Kappelhoff Well, that's about it. I doubt there are any other players that other teams would want. Not a lot of clamoring by foreign clubs for Son of Lamp or manbun.