2018 Attendance

Progress? In 2013, the first season, the independent teams as a block, had an average attendance that year of 2977. In 2017, that number increased to 3202. In short, in 5 years the average was 3144. So I am not sure that kind of incremental growth is much help.

 

The landscape has already been changing. With the addition of each MLS club owner, the structure of the league has been going through change. This was very clear with the exit of KCFC and Boston, along with another MLS club addition.
Looking at the numbers. The following pattern has developed.
% of leagues total attendance
2013 Portland 40%
2014 Portland, Houston 42%
2015 Portland, Houston 48%
2016 Portland, Houston, Orlando 57%
2017 Portland, Houston, Orlando 56%
Take KCFC and Boston out of the equation, and add in Utah and we could see that percentage jump as high as 70% for this season.

 

Well of course, if you add Portland in the mix. They average 17,000 a game.

Take Portland out of the mix as they are an anomaly, and see what the percentage is.

So, are you for the MLS taking over every team in the league?

 

Portland does skew it heavily on the MLS side, but it is also clear that the other MLS teams have still managed to come in ahead of the independents in total attendance each year, and I see no indication that is going to change for this season.

As to whether I am for the MLS side taking over, I think they pretty much have already. They are certainly in control of the decision making process right now, and with the addition of more MLS clubs, it is only going to make matters worse for the independent owners.
It was sad to see the loss of the KCFC and Boston teams, and I wouldn't want to see any of the other independents going out the same way. I think the Shalen Family realized that they had done all that they could possibly do, and decided it would be in their best interest as well as the league's, to gracefully bow out. So they passed the baton to someone else. Maybe that is what some of the remaining independent owners should think about doing as well.

 

Thorns attendance

2017
2016
2015
2014

Ok, but then this is more question of the business model that works, not whether women’s soccer is on any decline in popularity.

 

I’m always puzzle for the demand to take Portland out of any mix.

Portland is a model, and any teams that even approach part of that model are at the top of the league in attendance.

Who are the top 4 teams?

 

Don’t believe it MRAD is a grumpy old man who lives in a bathrobe, grows his fingernails long, and hasn’t brushed his teeth in 10 years.

 

But my point is no one approaches Portland. Anywhere close. Even the other MLS owned teams do not. Houston nor Orlando come anywhere close to Portland's attendance. Houston's and Orlando's attendance is much closer to the "independent" teams attendance than Portland's.

And the theory among many here is that attendance will be better if only they (pick independent team), were owned by an MLS team is not something I believe in.

I personally do not think that all of a sudden the Red Stars will draw 7,000, let's say, per game if they were owned by the Fire.

 

Maybe they would if the Fire devoted the full force of their sales and promotion arm to the Red stars.

We don’t know, because Paulson is the only owner who has actually done that.

I get stuff from the Thorns and Timbers. There is no difference, even though my reps are different.

I get the impression they sit together and work the same phones.

 

Ok.

What’s your analysis of the. German, French, and Spanish leagues?

Are they healthy?

I mean of course, other than UEFA mandate teams actually sponsor women’s teams. Any such “success”is artificial. True success is bases on market pressures. I’m not convinced there are many clubs anywhere that recognize that.

 

My personal opinion might sound heartless, but Women’s soccer has to go where success is. It’s an entertainment industry.

If it means that small clubs that came out of local youth progams fail,so be it, as long as they are replaced by enterprises that see economic realities. If you want to compete in the big leagues, it takes big effort. Some of the clubs on the fringes have had opportunities to link with very successful enterprises. (KCFC,BOS, NJ, Seattle,CHI,WNY, etc)

I see it as hard headedness. The WUSA had an opportunity very early to link with the MLS even before the MLS could be considered a going concern. They declined on ideological grounds, as is well documented by the players who led that league. That set back progress in the USA ten years.

 

Were are back to: it all depends if the MLS team in projected city wants a women's team.
We saw in Kansas City that they didn't. From what I've heard, Sounders want nothing to do with the Reign, I don't know how true that is. Not all MLS teams are keen to that idea.

Like I said about the Fire, I doubt they have any interest in owning an NWSL franchise. Working with them, maybe, owning - NO. My opinion.

So where does that leave an independent owner like Arnim Whisler who loves the women's game and is in it for all the right reasons? Kicked out the door? I don't think so.

 

That's a bad analysis because you're conflating % total attendance with % of the number of teams. A more accurate measure would probably be to look at the % overdraw, i.e. % attendance that's in excess of % number of teams. Considering that no added team has met Portland's numbers yet, that number will have gone down with each expansion, but you can either just look at year-to-year changes when expansion didn't occur or treat HOU/ORL(/NC/UTH) as a separate group from POR.

 

Also,

Does it have to be an MLS ownership?

What if let's say the Chicago Cubs wanted to buy the Red Stars and have them play at Wrigley Field (which BTW has removable bleachers placed in it so that college/NFL football can be played)?

Or let's say Jerry Reinsdorf, owner of the Bulls and White Sox wanted to be a partner in the Red Stars? Would that work for you MLS PUSHERS??

 

No! Just as long as they can get league approval. The league would probably love to have Arthur Blank (NFL/MLS) right now. That would be a very powerful ownership to have involved in the league.

 

Yeah I just want *insert existing sports entity here* ownership, honestly. Someone who generally knows how the business is run, plus has the deep pockets to keep up with - or even lead - further progress. Doesn't have to be MLS. Soccer owners are probably better than non-soccer owners, just for knowing how the business is run all the better, but NFL owners have shown they can run an MLS team well, I don't see why NFL/MLB/NBA/NHL owners couldn't do the same.

What would be really awesome to see is if you could get a deep ownership group together who tries to run a three-pronged NWSL/NWHL/WNBA effort somewhere (i.e. putting three teams under one umbrella is what attracts a well-funded ownership group).

 

If Utah's attendance ends up in the relatively high numbers, it probably will cause some serious re-thinking about a number of things. Although their owner's commitment to women's soccer as on a par with their men's team and their having a major league sports staff already in place are important factors, I don't think they're the most important. I believe the most important factor is locating teams where there's "something in the water" that will generate high numbers of fans, sufficient to allow a women's team to stand on its own financially -- which includes paying players adequately, having a sophisticated major league sports marketing staff, and so on.

Although you're right that we don't know yet how Utah will do attendance-wise, I think a really good indicator is their season ticket sales, which I understand are in excess of 7,000. (I think that's a more important number than their opening game attendance, as great as it was.) If they end up closer to Portland than to the other teams, I think there will be a hard-headed analysis of what Portland and Utah have in common that, say, Houston does not have. I think they'll do that because if Utah is remotely close to Portland, it will suggest the possibility that there are some locations where a professional women's soccer team at the high level we want can be financially successful on its own including adequately paying players and having full professional sport league staffs. (Although some might argue that having a pre-existing men's fan base, especially if there is a long men's season-ticket wait list, is a major factor, too.)

I think one of the past difficulties has been picking the wrong locations for teams (if the goal is to build a league with teams along the lines of what I'm suggesting). Portland and Salt Lake were ones I picked early as likely good locations. I think Austin would have been highly preferable to Houston (they could play at the University of Texas' stadium). I also picked the North Carolina tri-city area as a desirable location, although I think the jury is out on whether they will do well enough there to be at the level I think would be "success."

On the other hand, I wonder about some of the big markets. You've pointed out that the Red Stars are competing with a lot of other attractions. And, I believe you've wondered whether it's realistic to hope that they will reach the level of attendance needed for financial success, so that the Whislers don't have to keep pumping in money of their own as they've been willing to do. Perhaps Chicago is not the right market for that to occur, but that doesn't mean there aren't markets where it could. It also doesn't mean there aren't markets within that broad geographic area where it could. On this topic, you know your region of the country. Is there somewhere in the region that doesn't have the "other attraction" issue of Chicago that has a significant population and a "women-supportive" culture? Or, do you think the Whislers are irrevocably committed to Chicago?

In case I haven't been clear, I think there may be locations where a non-MLS affiliated team could be successful financially for both the owners and the players. If Utah is fully successful, that will suggest the likelihood of this is higher than many currently think, as Portland no longer will be an anomaly. I think whether there are such locations is the big question the league is dealing with, and I think we've got a couple more years until we start getting answers. I hope there are, but what actually happens over the next couple of years will give the answer.

 

It wasn’t an analysis at all. ( other than typing “no”)


It was a refutation ( which I highlighted) that “ all other clubs have dropped down”

There is no way you can say Portland, which despite the attempt to disqualify them as one of those teams, isnt part of “all” or dropped down.
Every single season was higher than the previous.

I include opening day because it’s all the information we have about Portland attendance this year.

I expect it will be yet higher this year. They relocated us to slightly better seats to open up a couple more seats for more season ticket sales

 

In my coffee deprived morning, I just realized you quotes CPT and not me.

I saw a list. I thought it was mine.

Not going to Starbucks will take getting used to.

 

Arnim had seats next to us at the last playoff game. It’s clear he has passion for the team and women’s soccer. We talked about what would happen to the league in the future, and I don’t think he is in the dark about what the league needs.

He did think the poor performers will get winnowed out over time and newer franchises will appear, but that the league is healthy.

I think he considers his team as a healthy one, but acknowledged the stadium location could be better. Not sure if he thought a full time rental of the mls stadium work with the bean counters.


But a better tv package might help. It’s what finally got mls in the Black after years of struggle.

 

Latest I heard is the actual figure is in excess of 5,000.

I am not so sold on Austin as a possiblity. The Longhorn women's soccer team doesn't draw all that well, and they have to play their games in a track stadium. A lot of seating, but not a very intimate setting for soccer.

 

You need more coffee... I quoted WoSoFan, not CPT. X-D