Alert: 2018-2019 Serie A Prediction Tournament

Discussion in 'Italy' started by totti fan, Aug 11, 2018.

  1. totti fan

    totti fan Red Card

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Ytd Tally / Rd 36:
    ____________________________________________

    Player - Points - Change in Position
    1. TheAnswer1313 - 313/13/-
    2. Gilbertsson - 281/10/-
    3. totti fan - 276/15/-
    4. Mean Machine - 265/8/-
    SIDE COMP (3 points exact score, 2 points correct margin, 1 point correct result, no weekly bonus)

    Ytd Tally / Rd 36:
    ____________________________________________

    Player - Points
    1. TheAnswer1313 - 343/14
    2. Gilbertsson - 322/11
    3. totti fan - 310/16
    4. Mean Machine - 292/8
     
  2. totti fan

    totti fan Red Card

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
  3. totti fan

    totti fan Red Card

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
  4. Gilbertsson

    Gilbertsson Member+

    Barcelona
    Spain
    Apr 1, 2012
    Geneva
    Club:
    Toronto Croatia
    Nat'l Team:
    Switzerland
  5. TheAnswer1313

    TheAnswer1313 Member+

    Dec 12, 2007
    Charleston, WV
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    totti fan repped this.
  6. Gilbertsson

    Gilbertsson Member+

    Barcelona
    Spain
    Apr 1, 2012
    Geneva
    Club:
    Toronto Croatia
    Nat'l Team:
    Switzerland
    Bad round, only 3 guessed outcomes. Juventus - Atalanta 1-1, Empoli - Torino 4-1, Sassuolo - Roma 0-0.:rolleyes: Torino wanted to avoid Europa League and Roma wanted to avoid Champions League.
    Inter won't allow that Milan ends in front. But they don't have bad relations. Players play normally in both clubs. Genoa wants to end in Serie B, 6 matches in a row without victory.:eek: Will Fiorentina gift the victory to Genoa in the last round?:oops: Can Milan win against inspired SPAL?:rolleyes: What would Lazio want in match against Torino? Will Parma just visit Rome? Will Inter help to Empoli, because Empoli needs points in Milano. Atalanta obviously has strong influence.:whistling: I doubt that they can pass the Champions League Group Stage. Milan, Roma, Lazio would collect more points in Champions League.

    More than ordinary results, it's interesting to reveal those hidden relations, how things really go.:)
     
  7. totti fan

    totti fan Red Card

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Congratulations to our winner @ TheAnswer1313 with a mathematically unassailable lead of 37 points.

    Ytd Tally / Rd 37:

    ____________________________________________

    Player - Points - Change in Position
    1. TheAnswer1313 - 323/8/-
    2. Gilbertsson - 286/5/-
    3. totti fan - 279/3/-
    4. Mean Machine - 265/-/-
    SIDE COMP (3 points exact score, 2 points correct margin, 1 point correct result, no weekly bonus)

    Still some hope in a close one here which suggests it was @ TheAnswer1313 's ability to precisely pick scorelines rather than just margins or results which was telling in the main comp.

    Ytd Tally / Rd 37:
    ____________________________________________

    Player - Points
    1. TheAnswer1313 - 352/9
    2. Gilbertsson - 348/6
    3. totti fan - 335/5
    4. Mean Machine - 292/-
     
  8. totti fan

    totti fan Red Card

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
  9. totti fan

    totti fan Red Card

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
  10. Gilbertsson

    Gilbertsson Member+

    Barcelona
    Spain
    Apr 1, 2012
    Geneva
    Club:
    Toronto Croatia
    Nat'l Team:
    Switzerland
    Complimenti to the winner of this competition; The Answer and on efforts of Totti Fan, for providing this season prediction.:thumbsup:
    With more users, we could make real Serie A simulation and at the end only 4 users would predict Champions League, 2 would predict Europa League.

    Round 38:

    Saturday, May 25 2019

    Frosinone vs Chievo 2-1
    Bologna vs Napoli 0-3

    Sunday, May 26 2019

    Torino vs Lazio 2-0
    Sampdoria vs Juventus 0-1
    SPAL 2013 vs AC Milan 1-2
    Atalanta vs Sassuolo 3-0
    Cagliari vs Udinese 1-1
    Fiorentina vs Genoa 1-0
    Inter vs Empoli 2-0
    Roma vs Parma Calcio 1913 2-0

    :ninja:
     
    totti fan repped this.
  11. TheAnswer1313

    TheAnswer1313 Member+

    Dec 12, 2007
    Charleston, WV
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Yep. Hopefully next season we can try to get more users doing this.
     
    Gilbertsson repped this.
  12. TheAnswer1313

    TheAnswer1313 Member+

    Dec 12, 2007
    Charleston, WV
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
  13. totti fan

    totti fan Red Card

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    #314 totti fan, Sep 30, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2019
    Congratulations to our winner @ TheAnswer1313

    Ytd Tally / Rd 38:
    ____________________________________________

    Player - Points - Change in Position
    1. TheAnswer1313 - 327/4/-
    2. Gilbertsson - 291/5/-
    3. totti fan - 284/5/-
    4. Mean Machine - 275/8/-
    5. Tzeentch - 217
    6. toronto_soccer - 131
    7. KensingtonSC - 62
    8. calabreses8 - 39
    9. Insigne4BalonD'Or - 38
    10. Taib - 25
    11. LiveOn - 17
    12. Alex101 - 8
    13. sal - 7

    SIDE COMP (3 points exact score, 2 points correct margin, 1 point correct result, no weekly bonus)

    @ TheAnswer1313 wins again.

    Ytd Tally / Rd 38:
    ____________________________________________

    Player - Points
    1. TheAnswer1313 - 357/5
    2. Gilbertsson - 335/7
    3. totti fan - 321/6
    4. Mean Machine - 301/9
    5. Tzeentch - 228
    6. toronto_soccer - 155
    7. KensingtonSC - 71
    8. calabreses8 - 44
    9. Insigne4BalonD'Or - 43
    10. Taib - 34
    11. LiveOn - 17
    12. Alex101 - 10
    13. Sal - 7
     
  14. La Magica

    La Magica Member+

    Aug 1, 2011
    Club:
    AS Roma
    @totti fan you said you were a banker..What would you make of returns like this below?

    Start of Season Bank = 100 points
    Total Unit Profit = +31.45
    Total Bank at Season End = 131.45
    ROI = 31.45%
    Yield = 8.37%
    Profitability = 31.45 / 62.25 = 50.52%
    Win Ratio = 24 / 118 = 79.66%
     
  15. totti fan

    totti fan Red Card

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Are we talking about a financial investment?
    What about the associated risk?
     
  16. La Magica

    La Magica Member+

    Aug 1, 2011
    Club:
    AS Roma
    #317 La Magica, May 8, 2020
    Last edited: May 8, 2020
    Yes I see it as investment. A football betting strategy I've been working on. It's based soley on the French league. This is one years return. The average return over 5 years of testing is 40% ROI. The associated risk is dependent on the weekend and the number of games that happend to fit the selection for that weekend. Certain weekends exposed the account to a total of 30-35 %. That was staggered over a weekend of course as you know fixtures are staggered from Friday night to Sunday. Other weekends the account had no bets selected to sometimes 1 or 2 meaning 10% or less exposure of overall trading account. Totally dependent on the weekends fixtures. I suppose in the banking world having 30% risk exposure even though that could be over 10 games would be considered high risk? Are the return numbers considered good?

    I could divide the stakes in half, halving exposure but still produce an average 20% ROI if the risk is too much.
     
  17. totti fan

    totti fan Red Card

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    If you can make those kind of returns that is pretty impressive. If you've tested it over a number of years you've also demonstrated that you've mitigated risk. 10% or higher exposure of total bank is very high though.

    I'm not sure if you were following but a couple of years ago I ran a betting game within BS.
    2017-2018 Serie A Prediction Tournament
     
  18. La Magica

    La Magica Member+

    Aug 1, 2011
    Club:
    AS Roma
    Do you mean it's considered very high exposure to have more than 10% of your account exposed at one time even if it's on different selections. I am laying the draw to win 1 point each game. So a draw is generally anywhere from 2/1 to 4/1 meaning I'm risking 2 to win 1 or 4 to win 1 etc. Then of course a team such as psg has prices such as 6/1 up to 15/1 but I cut them of anywhere above 10/1 max. When Neymar leaves there prices will come in 3 to 4 points on draws.

    I have been paper testing it. I'll continue back testing up to 10 seasons back and if it stays true, it can be a subscription based business to a small number of people. Cheers!
     
    Midfield General repped this.
  19. totti fan

    totti fan Red Card

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    What I mean is that if you have a $100 trading account and you wager $10 and lose than you are left with only $90. So if you encounter a long enough run of losses you would essentially be wiped out. And to get back to break even would require even higher rates of return given the reduced bank.
     
  20. totti fan

    totti fan Red Card

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    The difference between ROI and yield is pretty high. You only laid bets over 3 months of the year?
     
  21. La Magica

    La Magica Member+

    Aug 1, 2011
    Club:
    AS Roma
    Yes but it's very rare any game would be $10 on 1 selection alone. . When $10 would be exposed it would be for example over 3 games to win 3 units on odds such as 5.00, 4.00, 4.00.

    To win =3 units

    Total exposure = 10

    The yield is counted as total won divided by total exposure. Because it's a lay the draw system your yield will be low compared to ROI. Those stats are over the 38 rounds of the season. It 3 months. I've built a model that selects games so a lot of games are disregarded from the selection process.
     
  22. totti fan

    totti fan Red Card

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Its still 10% of bank even if it is spread out. Betting is not like stocks, it's all or nothing. The stakes are high.

    I'm assuming your yield is annualised, and ROI is not it's just the flat return.

    Your yield is roughly a quarter of your ROI which implies you traded for 3 months, as it says Season, singular. But then you say it was over 38 rounds. So something isn't adding up.

    Also if you're confident in the accuracy of your ratios you should be able to run it through a simulation excel model. Tweak your exposure levels etc. and see what happens.
     
    La Magica repped this.
  23. La Magica

    La Magica Member+

    Aug 1, 2011
    Club:
    AS Roma
    Those results were from france 2018/19. Yes all calculation are based over the 38 rounds of a season. I'll link you the article I used to calculate the yield and ROI. There was some debate in the comments regards how they were calculated so that might be what you're getting at as well.
     

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