No offense, but play a lineup they probably trained twice 2 days before the game you say "no excuses" ? I guess it's the culture of today of just wanting to bash things.
Remember how bad La Liga looked when LPB won 18 straight league matches and then lost 5-0 to Liverpool on aggregate? EPL be like, "hold my beer".
They were going to dominate the CL forever .... A small Part of me wants PSG to win the CL at some point just for the clowns who say you can’t buy success when it’s what their team does .
I kinda think that Chelsea's CL win (plus the EPLs they won) since Roman bought the team and spent so lavishly on transfers and salaries and coaches already shows that you can buy success. Further, since the Porto over Monaco CL win (with budget eggs no less), it seems like only rich clubs have won. Sure the other clubs which won since Porto (Liverpool, Barcelona, Milan, Manchester United, Inter, [Chelsea], Bayern, and Real Madrid) were not "noveau riche" like Chelsea, PSG, and Manchester City who each had a new rich owner, but all spent and continue to spend huge amounts. So the real shame is we may never see a Porto v. Monaco for the CL title ever again. And while it is easy to lash out at PSG, ManCity, and Chelsea for their spending, our own club and other traditional giant clubs do just as much to insure that things like the CL are only contested by a small number of the very richest clubs.
The only messed up thing about PSG and Man City's spending is how UEFA basically seems to help them circumvent FFP. I don't think Chelsea ever got into that category, so it was fair game.
Probably not, although we did have a year very recently when both Monaco and Atletico reached the semis [and we had quarterfinal matchups between Porto-Dortmund and Leicester-Atletico]. And this kinda gets away from your point (miles away from your point, actually), but the 2019 Porto team could probably win the 2019 CL if they played against those same 4 opponents in the knockout stages. So CL is more predictable now, but there will always be a lot of unpredictability generated because of the format.
Chelsea ain’t even spending that much which is exactly the reason they’re struggling right now. Sarri didn’t get enough money to buy his type of players barring from Jorginho in order for his Sarriball to work. Conte was also bitching about the lack of funds provided by the club.
Chelsea's current owner, Roman, the Russian oligarch who got rich on the post-communism (err maybe it's still "communist" officially but that's a joke) privatization of Russia's oil, has supposedly put the club up for sale, so he's trying to show it is not a cash suck, something most noveau riche FFP flaunting owners ignore. Maybe it's because oil prices are down, maybe he sneezed in Putin's soup, maybe he just realized it's an ego investment and he's ready to buy Rothkos instead. So yes, they are not spending like crazy any more, but they were, I think, the first of the "noveau riche" clubs. Rich person (always a dude I think) buys club and spends like crazy to try to make their initial buy of a cheap club with limited success turn them into a "genius" when they win everything. Chelsea, so far, is the only club to actually get the big ears grand prize, the CL trophy, funny that it was in a not so great year for them with a caretaker coach. But whatever, they did it. Something ManC and PSG haven't done. To be clear there is a ton of "new money" in a ton of soccer clubs (including a ton of Americans investing in EPL), but I'm mostly focused on the ones where the whole club was bought (usually on the cheap) and the club did not have much of a history of success.
I've read it's because England and Russia's relations aren't so good. So his properties in England don't feel safe.
Updating both odds (via Oddschecker) and computer model (via 538). I wrote the following before the games started last week - updates to the right: ManC 57/17 - 3.353 now 3 Barca 4.75 now 5.5 Juve 7.5 now 18 Liverpool 9 now 12 PSG 10 now 5.5 Real 11 now 10 Bayern 14 now 11 Atletico 22 now 11 BVB Dortmund 25 now 150 ManU 25 now 125 Tottenham 33 now 16 Ajax 100 now 250 Roma 100 now 80 Porto 125 now 200 Lyon 150 same Schalke 400 now 2000 For an alternate view see the 538 computer model which favors ManC 22% to win it all (not worth the bet though) still 22%, PSG (13% now 17%), Barca (13% still 13%), Bayern (11% now 9%), and Liverpool (10% still 10%), etc. You can see those odds as well as the odds of making quarterfinals, semis, etc. in their model. For instance they give ManU just 25% chance against PSG now just 3%; Roma and Porto are 50/50 (Roma now 59%); Bayern and Liverpool are 51%/49% now 50/50 respectively.... Ajax has dropped quite a bit from earlier predictions of a super even match but are still given a 41% chance of beating Real (now 24%). Basically, I don't think that the computer gives too much extra weight to extremely recent results (like ManU going on a tear, Real rounding into form, vs. Ajax taking some bad recent losses). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/ The updated 538 Computer gives Barca 77% chance of making quarters, Real 76%, Atleti 86% (so Juve just 14%), BVB 4%, etc. Not going to update Europa till after the games end, then might do an odds check before and after the next draw (tomorrow, same as the UEFA Youth CL draw), but so far Sevilla, Villarreal, and Valencia are all through, as are most early favorites (Arsenal, Napoli, Inter comfy 3-0 lead, Chelsea only up 2-1 at the moment though), so it is possible only Betis will miss advancing from Liga's 7 European teams, currently down 4-5 at home (1-2 today) to Rennes just before halftime.
I think after the 1st leg, the only ties that really have an almost certain winner now are PSG-Man U, Dortmund-Tottenham and Man C-Schalke so it makes sense that those teams' odd skyrocketed. Atleti-Juve and Real-Ajax also swung a lot but are far from over. And the other three ties Barca-Lyon, Bayern-Liverpool, and Porto-Roma will be essentially entirely decided in the second leg. All in all the computer odds are pretty realistic IMO.
Here's what I wrote last week before the Europa League matches began, you can find that post on page 7 if you want to look back further at how the odds have changed, not too many big surprises but Bayer and Betis and gone and the odds for all the survivors have gotten shorter as we are down to 16 teams, for the updates look to the right, and I bolded the bigger moves: Above are the Post draw and pre-draw Europa odds to win it all, now, before the games start, here's an update on the odds for all teams to win it all at 50:1 or lower payouts (the top half only) - there are still 32 teams in it so odds are longer than for CL favorites: Chelsea 5.5 - now 4.65 (79/17) Arsenal 6.5 - now 5 Napoli 7 - now 5 Inter 12 - now 10 and passed by Sevilla Sevilla 12 - now 9 Valencia 20 - now 14 Salzburg 22 - now 18 Eintracht 25 - now 18 Bayer 33 - OUT Benfica 33 - still 33 Betis 35 - OUT Zenit 40 - now 33 Shaktar 40 - OUT Villarreal 40 - now 35, but most at 30 or lower Five remaining teams have odds of 60-100:1. For an alternate view see the 538 computer model which favors Napoli to win it all but only at 13% so still a waste of money to gamble with a 7:1 payout. Followed by Inter 11% (good payout at 12:1), Chelsea 10% (terrible payout at 5.5:1), Valencia 8% (great payout at 20:1), Sevilla 7%, Arsenal 6% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/europa-league/ Updating the computer model things are still wide open, pre-draw, Chelsea and Napoli both with 13% shot to win it all, then Valencia and Sevilla at 11% each, Inter at 10, Arsenal and Salzburg at 8%, Benfica at 7%. So Benfica and Salzburg are the good bets, Valencia too, comparing the computer model % to the payout the bookies are offering. Two of three longer shots at 4% to win also have favorable payouts: Villarreal (at 35:1 or even 30:1), Dynamo Kiev (paying as much as 66:1). Computer also would bet Krasnodor at 80:1 but given at 3% chance to win it all (which seems too high).
Chelsea and Arsenal are 1-2?! How overrated can the EPL get? Surely, in reality and before knowing the draw, Sevilla, Napoli and Inter all have better chances. And Valencia, Bayer and Benfica have comparable chances IMO.
Yeah, that's why I started adding the computer model's prediction, as bookmakers' odds reflect what people will bet on (so it is a weighing machine, with the bookmaker moving the odds to try to draw equal money on all teams, so if more money comes in on EPL due to being overrated, their odds get shorter, but there's a disconnect between likelihood and odds). Here those computer models had Napoli on top last week before the games started (now joint top with Chelsea): the 538 computer model which favors Napoli to win it all but only at 13% so still a waste of money to gamble with a 7:1 payout. Followed by Inter 11% (good payout at 12:1), Chelsea 10% (terrible payout at 5.5:1), Valencia 8% (great payout at 20:1), Sevilla 7%, Arsenal 6%
I wrote all this last night, before the draw, now all in italics. Adding updates to the right post draw. But first here is the draw, the team on the left hosts first leg: Chelsea v Dynamo Kyiv Frankfurt v Inter Dinamo Zagreb v Benfica Napoli v Salzburg Valencia v Krasnodar Sevilla v Slavia Praha Arsenal v Rennes* Zenit v Villarreal Last night's odds (which updated the field of 32 odds just before games started 9 days ago) after field of 16 set, but pre-draw. UPDATED ODDS IN ALL CAPS: Here's what I wrote last week before the Europa League matches began, you can find that post on page 7 if you want to look back further at how the odds have changed, not too many big surprises but Bayer and Betis and gone and the odds for all the survivors have gotten shorter as we are down to 16 teams, for the updates look to the right, and I bolded the bigger moves: Above are the Post draw and pre-draw Europa odds to win it all, now, before the games start, here's an update on the odds for all teams to win it all at 50:1 or lower payouts (the top half only) - there are still 32 teams in it so odds are longer than for CL favorites: Chelsea 5.5 - now 4.65 (79/17) - NOW 4 Arsenal 6.5 - now 5 - NOW 5.5 AFTER RENNES DRAW Napoli 7 - now 5 - NOW ALONE AS 2ND FAVORITE AT 5 BUT SALZBURG TOUGH Inter 12 - now 10 and passed by Sevilla - NOW 11 AS FRANKFURT DRAWN Sevilla 12 - now 9 - NOW ONLY 7 AFTER SLAVIA PRAHA DRAW Valencia 20 - now 14 - NOW 12 AFTER KRASNODAR DRAW Salzburg 22 - now 18 - NOW 25 Eintracht 25 - now 18 NOW 30 Benfica 33 - still 33 - NOW 18 AFTER DINAMO ZAGREB DRAW Zenit 40 - now 33 - SAME 33 Villarreal 40 - now 35, but most at 30 or lower - SAME 35 Five remaining teams have odds of 60-100:1. - NOW 80 (KRASNODAR, RENNES) 100 (D KIEV, D. ZAGREB) --150 (SLAVIA PRAHA) For an alternate view see the 538 computer model which favors Napoli to win it all but only at 13% so still a waste of money to gamble with a 7:1 payout. Followed by Inter 11% (good payout at 12:1), Chelsea 10% (terrible payout at 5.5:1), Valencia 8% (great payout at 20:1), Sevilla 7%, Arsenal 6% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/europa-league/ Updating the computer model things are still wide open, pre-draw, Chelsea and Napoli both with 13% shot to win it all, then Valencia and Sevilla at 11% each, Inter at 10, Arsenal and Salzburg at 8%, Benfica at 7%. So Benfica and Salzburg are the good bets, Valencia too, comparing the computer model % to the payout the bookies are offering. Two of three longer shots at 4% to win also have favorable payouts: Villarreal (at 35:1 or even 30:1), Dynamo Kiev (paying as much as 66:1). Computer also would bet Krasnodor at 80:1 but given at 3% chance to win it all (which seems too high). UPDATE TO COMPUTER MODEL: SEVILLA NEW FAVORITE, 92% chance to win over Slavia Praha is the best odds to advance by a long shot and catapults them to 15% to win it all (up for 11%). Chelsea and Valencia next at 13% to win it all (but only 69-71% to advance). Napoli 11% win but only 59% to beat Salzburg (6% to win, but only 41% to adv) Inter 10% and 63% v. Frankfurt (3% to win but only 37% to advance) Arsenal and Benfica 9% each with good odds to advance (73 & 75%) Villarreal 4% win, and 67% beat Zenit (good longshot bet at 35:1)
My predictions: Chelsea v Dynamo Kyiv Frankfurt v Inter Dinamo Zagreb v Benfica Napoli v Salzburg Valencia v Krasnodar Sevilla v Slavia Praha Arsenal v Rennes* Zenit v Villarreal Apart from possibly Zenit beating Villareal and Rennes beating Arsenal, I'm fairly confident in the other picks. I think from the QF onwards it will be a real battle.
Yeah, agreed. It was a meh draw in terms of matchups it spat out, but that sometimes makes for better matchups later on. I think Zenit will advance though. Villarreal have to focus on the relegation battle.
Quick update to the last odds I posted after Real Madrid and BVB dropped out all the other favorites have gotten shorter: ManC 57/17 - 3.353 now 3 - NOW 2.75 Barca 4.75 now 5.5 - NOW 4.5 Juve 7.5 now 18 - STILL 18 Liverpool 9 now 12 - NOW 11 PSG 10 now 5.5 - NOW 5 Real 11 now 10 - OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bayern 14 now 11 - STILL 11 Atletico 22 now 11 - NOW 10 BVB Dortmund 25 now 150 - OUT ManU 25 now 125 - STILL 125 Tottenham 33 now 16 - THROUGH AND NOW 14 Ajax 100 now 250 - THROUGH AND NOW 25 Roma 100 now 80 - NOW 100 Porto 125 now 200 - STILL 200 Lyon 150 same - STILL 150 Schalke 400 now 2000 - STILL 2000
Updating again, after 2 more out (including PSG!) and 2 more through; also added the 538 predictions on getting through to quarters (if not already through) and winning it all: ManC 57/17 - 3.353 now 3 - NOW 2.75 - now 2.5 -99% to get through, 26% to win Barca 4.75 now 5.5 - NOW 4.5 - same - 78% & 16% to win Juve 7.5 now 18 - STILL 18 - now 20 - 13% & 2% Liverpool 9 now 12 - NOW 11 - now 10 - 51% & 12% PSG 10 now 5.5 - NOW 5 - OUT!!!!!!!!!!!! Real 11 now 10 - OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bayern 14 now 11 - STILL 11 - same - 49% & 11% Atletico 22 now 11 - NOW 10 - now 8 - 87% & 11% BVB Dortmund 25 now 150 - OUT ManU 25 now 125 - STILL 125 - THROUGH AND NOW 11 - 4% win Tottenham 33 now 16 - THROUGH AND NOW 14 - 6% win Ajax 100 now 250 - THROUGH AND NOW 25 - 8% win Roma 100 now 80 - NOW 100 - OUT Porto 125 now 200 - STILL 200 - THROUGH AND NOW 66 - 3% win Lyon 150 same - STILL 150 - SAME - 22% through less than 1% win Schalke 400 now 2000 - STILL 2000 - now 1000 - 1% through less than 1% win
Updating Europa odds after the first legs were played - also adding the odds to advance and to win it all (latter for 538, former from oddschecker): Below lists the teams in order of shortest odds to longest dating back to Chelsea 5.5 - now 4.65 (79/17) - NOW 4 -now 3, 98% & 21% Arsenal 6.5 - now 5 - NOW 5.5 AFTER RENNES DRAW - now 9, 35% & 5% Napoli 7 - now 5 - NOW ALONE AS 2ND FAVORITE AT 5 BUT SALZBURG TOUGH - now 3.5, 97% & 20% Inter 12 - now 10 and passed by Sevilla - NOW 11 AS FRANKFURT DRAWN - now 14, 54% & 8% Sevilla 12 - now 9 - NOW ONLY 7 AFTER SLAVIA PRAHA DRAW - now 14, 62% & 7% Valencia 20 - now 14 - NOW 12 AFTER KRASNODAR DRAW - now 10, 75% & 12% Salzburg 22 - now 18 - NOW 25 - now 250, 3% & under 1% Eintracht 25 - now 18 NOW 30 - now 25, 45% & 4% Benfica 33 - still 33 - NOW 18 AFTER DINAMO ZAGREB DRAW - now 25, 46% & 4% Zenit 40 - now 33 - SAME 33 - now 200, 3% & under 1% Villarreal 40 - now 35, but most at 30 or lower - SAME 35 - now 22, 97% & 7% Five remaining teams have odds of 60-100:1. - NOW 80 (KRASNODAR, RENNES) 100 (D KIEV, D. ZAGREB) --150 (SLAVIA PRAHA) - Rennes & Zagreb got shorter at 40 & 66 after strong first legs.
Good question, but it is a small move, they are a long shot anyways, so move from 18:1 to 20:1 is small, and computer says it is a bad bet at less than 50:1. Also, you can see that Atleti got much shorter from 10:1 to 8:1, so that likely means more money was coming in on Atleti, less on Juve, so the bookies adjust Atleti shorter and Juve longer to get more even money bet on both sides.
How nuts would it be if Villarreal won the Europa League while being relegated from La Liga? I think it would mark the first time that a second division club was competing in the Champions League. (!)