News: 2018-19 UEFA Champions League draw: The Road to Madrid (Metropolitano) [R]

Discussion in 'Barcelona' started by unclesox, Aug 25, 2018.

  1. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    Yeah, Liverpool v Man City would've been more exciting if we knew Barca-Roma were playing the winner.

    But I'm still surprised they reverted back to doing the SF draw before the QF stage. Having a draw before each round seemed to work well.
     
  2. unclesox

    unclesox BigSoccer Supporter

    Mar 8, 2003
    209, California
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Anyone bored? :p



    We've done this dance before, back in 2014.
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/ue...oad-to-lisboa-r.1993034/page-10#post-29359499

    The thread to Raphael Honigstein's reply on the topic has some interesting names from the journalistic world chiming in with their thoughts.



    My thoughts haven't changed: Bad idea if it was scrapped.
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/20...draw-the-road-to-milan.2024060/#post-32843287
     
  3. Danko

    Danko Member+

    Barcelona
    Serbia
    Mar 15, 2018
    Seems rather unfair to scrap the away goal rule. After all we lost to Roma last year because of it...
     
  4. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    I don’t particularly like the away goal rule .... but it probably does more good than bad in the grand scheme of things . But football is a bit different today . Not sure teams would revert to bunkering on away games like before . Unless you’re Mourinho of course . Then again he bunkers at home if he has a half goal lead .
     
  5. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    Nah, we lost cuz we sucked! Never deserved to win the first leg 4-1 in the first place.

    But even putting aside the luck factor that was on Barca's side, if there wasn't an away-goals rule we would've had another 30 minutes of football in Rome when they had all the momentum and Barca already looked tired. Chances are Barca lose 4- or 5-nil.
     
  6. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Could have even lost vs Chelsea the round before .
     
  7. Danko

    Danko Member+

    Barcelona
    Serbia
    Mar 15, 2018
    We sucked but Roma aren't that good... At any point in that match I feel like we could have won if a break went our way.

    Anyways here are my predictions for the Round of 16:

    Man Utd v PSG
    Roma v Porto
    Ajax v Real Madrid
    Tottenham v Borussia Dortmund
    Liverpool
    v Bayern
    Lyon v Barcelona
    Atletico v Juventus
    Schalke v Man City

    I am not confident about Man U. I can see PSG winning still. They have Mbappe, better defense, and have the advantage of not being favorites for once. Roma could also beat Porto. Other than that, I'm confident in other predictions. Yes I don't want to jinx us but we should beat Lyon. Seriously... LPB will own Ajax. Wishful thinking to expect them to lose.
     
  8. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    PSG are still favorites and certainly have the lion’s share of the pressure. If they lose its an absolute disaster !

    And actually PSG have rarely been the favorites entering a R16 tie. Not sure what you mean “not favorites for once”.
     
  9. Danko

    Danko Member+

    Barcelona
    Serbia
    Mar 15, 2018
    Ever since Neymar came they had enormous expectations. Last year most people predicted they would beat Madrid. Now with injuries to Neymar and Cavani, their expectations are much reduced. They can play more freely perhaps.
     
  10. unclesox

    unclesox BigSoccer Supporter

    Mar 8, 2003
    209, California
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    This week's Champions League matches.
    The numbers in parenthesis denotes the number of official matches each team has played since the new year.

    (6) Roma -v- Porto (10)

    (8) Man Utd -v- PSG (9)

    (10) Tottenham -v- Dortmund (5)

    (5) Ajax-v- Real Madrid (12)
     
  11. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    #161 celito, Feb 11, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019
    People are too quick to judge. They call Neymar going there a failure and it has been literally one season there and they faced the eventual champions in the R16 without their main guy in the 2nd leg at home. Losing to ManU would be bad, but people seriously need to consider the context.
     
  12. Danko

    Danko Member+

    Barcelona
    Serbia
    Mar 15, 2018
    Hey man I agree with you. I'm just saying what the prevailing narrative is!

    If I remember correctly, Thiago Silva was hurt for last year's CL clash as well? He was important for them in the back.
     
  13. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Wasn’t an attack on your post . I just too much of that narrative around .
     
  14. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    Well, the context is that PSG has done nothing in CL since they struck oil and Neymar was brought in to rectify that. The R16 exit last season put in that context is a major disappointment, even if they did lose to Real Madrid. I mean they were pretty much toast before the Neymar injury.

    But yeah, too early to call the Neymar move to PSG a failure. He can still win the CL & Ballon d'Or this year. IMO, it can only be classified as a failure after he leaves or after 3 years of not winning CL, whichever comes first.
     
  15. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    It's too early to tell and anything can happen. It's clear to see they need a better midfield. He put himself in a position where only winning the CL is considered success. But it took for example Ronaldo 5 seasons to do it at Madrid. I don't consider winning leagues failure, but in his case it will be. But hey, if he wins a WC ... it's all cool with me.
     
  16. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    Well, it also depends how far they go in CL when they don't win it. If they continue to get molested in the R16 like last season then its gonna be considered a failure even if they keep winning Ligue 1.
     
  17. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Well yeah ... if they had a full team and failed vs ManU it'd be a big failure. Now it's all up in the air. It was unfortunate for them they faced Madrid last season. But even with that 3 x 1 score in the first leg, they weren't bad. They didn't get played out of the park. Remember Lo Celso did a really stupid PK and then Ronaldo's goal was pretty fortunate.
     
  18. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    It'll be a big failure regardless. Its not like their injury list is that long. No excuse if they can't at least keep it close tonight so they can advance at home with a healthier squad.

    I still think they will advance though.
     
  19. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    As long as Verratti and Cavani play. Having those 2 plus Neymar out I'd say is pretty bad wouldn't you say ? Verratti probably won't be in form either. Not making excuses, just reality.
     
  20. evil_allan

    evil_allan Member+

    May 3, 2004
    Turtle Island
    is Cavani available?

    PSG is also without Meunier and Rabiot. although Rabiot's absence is totally self-inflicted by PSG, having banished him for not renewing his contract.
     
  21. Gilmango

    Gilmango Member+

    Jul 20, 2006
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #171 Gilmango, Feb 12, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2019
    Above are the odds after the draw (compared with pre-draw odds), below are the current odds to win it all, from taking the highest payout, longest odds available via Oddschecker which provides update odds from about 20 online bookmakers.

    ManC 57/17 - 3.353
    Barca 4.75
    Juve 7.5
    Liverpool 9
    PSG 10
    Real 11
    Bayern 14
    Atletico 22
    BVB Dortmund 25
    ManU 25
    Tottenham 33
    Ajax 100
    Roma 100
    Porto 125
    Lyon 150
    Schalke 400

    For an alternate view see the 538 computer model which favors ManC 22% to win it all (not worth the bet though), PSG (13%), Barca (13%), Bayern (11%), and Liverpool (10%), etc. You can see those odds as well as the odds of making quarterfinals, semis, etc. in their model. For instance they give ManU just 25% chance against PSG; Roma and Porto are 50/50; Bayern and Liverpool are 51%/49% respectively.... Ajax has dropped quite a bit from earlier predictions of a super even match but are still given a 41% chance of beating Real. Basically, I don't think that the computer gives too much extra weight to extremely recent results (like ManU going on a tear, Real rounding into form, vs. Ajax taking some bad recent losses). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/
     
  22. Gilmango

    Gilmango Member+

    Jul 20, 2006
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Above are the Post draw and pre-draw Europa odds to win it all, now, before the games start, here's an update on the odds for all teams to win it all at 50:1 or lower payouts (the top half only) - there are still 32 teams in it so odds are longer than for CL favorites:
    Chelsea 5.5
    Arsenal 6.5
    Napoli 7
    Inter 12
    Sevilla 12
    Valencia 20
    Salzburg 22
    AC Milan 25
    Eintracht 25
    Lazio 28
    Bayer 33
    Benfica 33
    Betis 35
    Zenit 40
    Shaktar 40
    Villarreal 40

    For an alternate view see the 538 computer model which favors Napoli to win it all but only at 13% so still a waste of money to gamble with a 7:1 payout. Followed by Inter 11% (good payout at 12:1), Chelsea 10% (terrible payout at 5.5:1), Valencia 8% (great payout at 20:1), Sevilla 7%, Arsenal 6% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/europa-league/
     
  23. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    I think he will be for the second-leg, but not tonight. Dani Alves is starting up front. :)
     
  24. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    Too many players in their squad that are past their prime. Cavani 32, Di Maria 31, Silva 34, Buffon 40+, Alves 35. And those are just among the regular starters!

    So, yeah, Neymar + <100% Verratti is bad but made worse because they are not that good to begin with. Lots of big names, but most of them are on the decline. Some probably shouldn't even be on the field, really.
     
    celito repped this.
  25. evil_allan

    evil_allan Member+

    May 3, 2004
    Turtle Island
    [​IMG]

    still a strong lineup, representing a lot of money in transfer fees and salaries, so no excuses PSG...
     

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