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Discussion in 'Barcelona' started by unclesox, Aug 25, 2018.
exactly what i thought, imagine best league in the world being wiped out by us
but they also lost to arsenal pretty easily last week. we have to overcome away matches problem, if we do it, we will win
Great midfield is a stretch, no? They are not a particularly fast team so that's why I wanted to draw them. Well that and they can't park the bus with that defense don't tell that to Mou).
Of note, the weekend between the 2 legs is open for United so they might be quite rested for us. I'm assuming that w/e is reserved for FA cup.
As someone who follows the Spain national team I question the greatness of Man Utd’s goalkeeper. Maybe he’s one of those ‘great club players’ while rarely displaying any playing for his country, like Raul.
many English supporters saying that the Europa final will be Chelsea vs Arsenal and the Champions final will be Liverpool vs Man city , has a country ever had 4 teams in the final of both competitions before ?
Meanwhile in Europa draw, Napoli v Arsenal winner plays Villarreal v Valencia winner and Benfica v Frankfurt winner plays Slavia Prague v Chelsea. So beneficial path for Chelsea as three other favorites play on other side of draw.
In CL I was wrong, neither half of the draw is loaded, favorites all have a 'should win' game followed by a likely 'showdown' semifinal; however, upset(s) happen.
Pretty sure Spain has done it.
Chances of an all-EPL final in the EL might've increased a little today but that's still a pretty tough draw for Arsenal.
Tuesday 9 April
Liverpool v Porto
Tottenham v Manchester City
Wednesday 10 April
Ajax v Juventus
Manchester United v Barcelona
Tuesday 16 April
Barcelona v Manchester United
Juventus v Ajax
Wednesday 17 April
Manchester City v Tottenham
Porto v Liverpool
After further review, I wasn't even close. Nobody has done it. Only Italy has even had 3 finalists across the 2 competitions (1995 & 1998). And they only won 1 both times. So chance for the most dominant European season ever by England this season.
Lets hope not, we will never hear the end of it.
They have 4 in the QF of CL and already can't stand listening to it. One guy in the ManU board asked when is EPL getting another CL spot ... ... I guess he doesn't know 4 is the max a league can get.
Well, good chance they will have 5 teams in CL next season, although obviously Top 4 + EL champion spot is not what the guy meant.
Yeah, I did a double take when their midfield was described as great, this is a team who are 5th in EPL, 16 points behind Man City so 'great' is a leap. However , if you remember Chelsea under Di Matteo history tells us that you can fluke the CL so who knows.
So shocked that Juve got Ajax.
Man U is beatable, we are beatable.
If I was Ajax I'd be happy to get Juve.
The way Ajax played, they can be a very good side.
If we don't beat ManU, I will definitely blame it on the CDR ...
I agree with that although Rashford is very fast. They are physical and a big team. And loaded with talent overall...
De Gea can be a bit inconsistent but when he's on his form, he's a literal wall. He had a match earlier this season where he shut down Tottenham completely. Threw himself and saved shots from like point blank range... He is arguably the best GK in the world because I think he's most difficult to score on when he's at his best even if he isn't always in such form.
Doesn't seem like a great draw for Juve at all. Ajax just outclassed Real in 2 straight matches & the computer model currently gives Ajax the best chance of beating one of the big 4 teams (40% vs. 15-22% for the other three "minnows" of the quarterfinals). Then Juve would likely need to beat ManCity just to make the finals (that's the favorite for the whole thing by bookies and computer alike). So I don't think the draw did any favors for Juve. The real sweet draw for anyone of the favorites would be a team like Juve paired with 3 of Porto, ManU, Spurs, and Ajax, while the other 3 favorites had a death match on the other side of the draw. That did not happen for Juve or any of the favorites.
So if I was going going to go with a conspiracy theory it would be that all the top 4 leading contenders were effectively "seeded" away from each other, and that further the possible dream finals: Leo v. CR7, Barca v. Pep, or Pep v. Klopp are all in play; only the possible of Juve v. Liverpool lacks a great story (though both have been losers in finals recently so we get a redemption story for one of them).
As far as a league dominating a UEFA campaign, La Liga 2015-16 will be tough for top in terms of coefficient number which finished with a 23.925 point avg.
They nearly had four finalists that season: Not only was the UCL an all-Spanish affair (Madrid v Atlético) but Sevilla won the UEL beating Liverpool in the final who had knocked out Villarreal in the semis.
And while the 2013-14 campaign finished with a slightly lower 23.000 point avg, what really stood out was that of the seven La Liga clubs involved in Europe that season only one was knocked out by foreign opposition (Real Sociedad in the UCL group stage).
The other SIX La Liga clubs were either knocked out by their brethren or lifted silverware.
Btw, those are the only two seasons a league’s avg coefficient total exceeded 21.000.
The Premier League currently stands at 17.214 but I’m not enough of a math major to know if they can surpass La Liga’s 2015-16 total.
(Burnley is their only club that has been knocked out of Europe so far this season.)
Well, they would need about 47 points combined among the 6 teams, where each get 2 points for a win and 1 for a draw. Plus a bonus point for advancing another round. So Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool can get as many as 10 each before playing the final [30 total]. A Chelsea-Arsenal final will result in 2 more points. Man City and Spurs will combine for 5 points in the QF, with the winner capable of getting another 5 in the SF. Then 2 more for the all-EPL CL final.
Add up the numbers in bold and you get 44. I think. Not enough.
Amazing that its not enough even if every team goes perfect in Europe from here on! Either my math stinks or it has a lot to do with most of the CL teams scraping-by a bit in the CL group-stage. The La Liga teams must've dominated their groups that year.
EDIT: D'oh! Forgot about Man United. Hopefully didn't jinx it. That's potentially another 5 points before they run into Liverpool and then it doesn't matter because they can only combine for 5 more points which is already counted above.
So that adds up to 49. They can beat Spain's record. But highly unlikely.
Well remarkably none of the top four meet each other in quarterfinals, and thus it is of course true that no side of the draw has more than 2 of the 4 favorites. Almost like it was "seeded" a cynic might say. As a result the odds did not change very significantly from the Pre-draw odds posted above.
MAN CITY 2.55 (28/11) - now 2.5
BARCA 4 - now 3.75
JUVE 4 - now 3.5 so into 2nd which I think is a joke
POOL 5.5 - now 4.5
MAN U 13 - now 20
SPURS 15 - now 25
AJAX 25 - now 40
PORTO 75 - now 100
So basically the 4 favorites avoided each other and all got slightly shorter odds as a result, and the 4 "minnows" all drew a favorite and thus got longer odds (that is there were no gifts to the minnows, like Roma v. Porto was in the prior leg, not to disparage either of those clubs).
Now let's see what the computer model thought of the draw, did all 4 favorites get more favorable % odds (or not)? And vice versa for the 4 minnows?
Now onto the computer odds and how those changed:
Man C 34% wow, big jump, the computer does not think much of Spurs chances (20% to beat ManC), nor of Juve's or Ajax's in the semifinal. 80% to advance to semis, 58% to final.
Liverpool 25% - still in 2nd, less of a change, slight bump for not drawing another favorite. 85% to advance to semis (due to drawing Porto), 47% to make final.
Barca 22% - see Liverpool, same idea. Of more immediate importance they are seen as 78% likely to make semis, but only 42% to make final (a bit behind Liverpool, partly as Pool have more likelihood of beating Porto then we do of beating ManU, but also seems computer gives Pool a slight edge if we do meet - which I don't agree with but love to see first hand.
Juventus 9% - the one favorite whose odds actually went down, slightly but significantly, partly due to drawing the computer's favorite "minnow" Ajax, partly for being in the same side of draw as ManC, the computers (and the bookies) top pick. Only a 60% shot at semis, by far the worst of the favorites, and only 21% shot at making the final (as the computer really gives Ajax a shot, and then really favors ManC if they survive Ajax).
Ajax 4% - also a drop from 7%, due to drawing Juve and being on same side as ManC, if they survive all that they'd still have to win final (Liverpool or Barca most likely). BUT computer gives them a 40% chance to beat Juve, a bit similar to their computer odds to beat Real Madrid (well those vacillated a bit between 51-35% in the long time between draw and matches)
Spurs 3% - a drop from 5%
ManU 2% - a drop from 4%
Porto 1% - biggest drop of all from 3%
Suspended for Qf1
One booking away from missing Qf2
Man Utd: Herrera, Matic, Shaw, Valencia, Young
And in the quarterfinal tie from Barça's half of the draw...
Porto: Héctor Herrera : Danilo, Éder Militão, Otávio
Great info, I've said it before, but big thanks again for always posting this info.
Since you posted the Porto and Liverpool info, is it just for the final that the slate is wiped clean (other than for direct reds of course), not for semis and final?
Slates wiped clean after quarterfinal second leg.
But any yellow card suspensions gained in Qf2 do carry over into Sf1.
Good for Sergio Ramos who goes into the QFs with a clean slate.