You make statements about the gameplan like you know what it is. I am not going to say anything other than what the layman can find out but I will tell you almost everybody on this thread has no idea what they are talking about regarding this team. One person said something true but I will leave it to you guys to debate and figure it out. They will continue to focus on the next team in front of them. And then the next. @cpthomas has FSU winning it all and after watching them yesterday they are 2-3 goals worse than the team his statistical model is criticizing. Keep it coming. Let's see what you say on September 7th when they do their thing to a top 10 team.
Descriptive statistics are just that. Descriptions of what happened and are not meant to be predictive. I am sure that you know what must occur in order to make some sort of inference. At the end of the season if the stats don't fit your model you can just call them outliers.
Here is a google sheet with basic/rate stats, and box scores that will be updated throughout the season. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EVCg3IY3beIf7CXlzC-1K--RiMYi7MwjmhJaRM3amrM/
Hello all, as a UCLA student, I'm going to try and attend their home matches this season. I saw my first match yesterday and while I'm still familiarizing myself with the team, I really enjoyed what I saw. The only problem was I felt their defense needed to step up more and they were slow against speedy Santa Clara. They cannot allow that many goals in the back of the net. Quick question, I decided to sit high up on the stadium side because thats how I like to watch soccer. However, I noticed quite a few fans sit up close on the bleacher side. Anybody that has attended a UCLA match let me know what the best side is?
So what happened to "this is the last I'll post on the matter"? UCLA is an exceptional team that did not, IMO, play up to the hype you put on them. That was a wide open, offensive game that showed little on the defensive side (particularly the first half) of the ball for either team, I understand your sensativity on the subject as your daughter helps to anchor the backline, but every team has off days.
Nope, you don't get it. I haven't used a model at all, when it comes to goals against averages and national championships. I've just told you what has happened historically. At the end of the season, if the national champion has a GAA higher than 0.7, then what has happened historically will change and the new higher GAA will give the boundary of what has happened historically. It won't be an outlier, it will be a fact. As for my simulations, you need to read the very explicit warnings I've given about them, especially the early ones. If you did, you'd know I don't have anyone achieving anything. I'm simply providing a model, that I've described explicitly, and saying that this is what the model produces. And, that as the season progresses, the model will come closer and closer to the end-of-regular-season results (which is what it's concerned with, not with the NCAA Tournament results). Regarding GAAs, let's see where we are on December 3! UCLA probably is a contender for the national championship, but my educated guess is that if they win it, they won't have a 1.25 GAA.
Nice double talk. You should go into politics. So you spent all this time producing something that is totally wrong until the end when you have the champion on the field. You must have a lot of time on your hands because that sounds pretty silly. Please continue Sisyphus.
If you want to be brutally honest, the defense did not play well. The Back line and the goal keeper for UCLA didn't play well. I think Kennedy Faulknor will be an improvement when she is ready for start since she hasn't played yet. She would be replacing Karina Rodriguez who is the freshman center back. Faulknor is a freshman herself, but she is already capped with the senior Canadian national team at 16 years. She has a lot of upside with her. But cpthomas does have his points so they shouldn't be discounted. Great to score 4 goals against normally a stubborn side like Santa Clara. But the counters hurt UCLA . Remember UCLA are a very young team. Its a team mostly made of Freshman and Sophomores.
Why are you picking a fight with cpthomas now? His RPI metrics work goes back 8+ years, and his RPI simulation goes back 2 years. Yes, this is what he does in his spare time. Yes, it has helped inform analyses and discussions over at least the last 5+ years. In particular, he can pass judgment on NCAA selection committee decisions based on their past historical decisions, and back it up with hard and exhaustive data. That almost surely gets the attention of the committee itself, and convinces some of us that e.g. Michigan got snubbed but Wisconsin didn't. In contrast, your statement here sounds exactly like the 2015-2017 trend of ... talking down any science using emotional language. Is that really the platform you want to stand on? IMHO, you're the one sounding political; he's just a data geek. His disclaimers, and your non-scientific reaction to it, is exactly the gulf in understanding we see in society at large. You're the one insisting that his work has to mean what you want it to mean, and then criticizing it out of nowhere when it doesn't. That's you; that's not him; that's not science. I have enjoyed your previous posts. I have no idea why you're picking this fight.
Another Pac-12 TV director does it again, cutting away from the game action to show Amanda Cromwell with her legs crossed while we miss a goal. This time it's Delanie Sheehan's in 19th minute. UCLA 2, UCSB 0
Ummmm...this is a public forum. I simply was pointing out the obvious in response to the other UCLA fan that privately berated me as someone who knows nothing about Soccer. Sorry if I have offended you
Starter???? South Carolina??? Not sure where thiss is going...Is your kid a defender that has a dad on this board with multiple handles? OR maybe you are the parent of a midfielder/striker that comes off the bench? It really doesnt matter does it?
That makes two of us. This is a story regarding her recent challenges. https://www.ronfanfair.com/home/2017/8/23/faulknor-back-in-action-after-lengthy-layoff
Kennedy Faulknor is the most highly touted incoming center back for UCLA since Abby Dahlkemper. You have to wonder how much time is necessary to meet the high expectations many have. Other than Sanchez and Sheehan, the freshmen still need to make that transition from high school. Those needing the necessary work on defense have been involved in every goal allowed. The Bruin lineup Sunday looked very speedy in the first half with Mace and Goralski up front, putting enormous pressure on Santa Barbara. Then in the second half, it looked like they were replaced by two lumbering polar bears. It was painful to watch.
For Faulknor to sit out 15 months with the effects of a concussion has to have been an unimaginable nightmare.
Watched the UCLA vs Santa Barbara match when they replayed it at night. Went to see some friends and watched the Game of Thrones finale with them. So we are talking about Santa Barbara, not a team that Coach Cromwell was going to be worried about. So her strategy was to play the rookies and test them out. And I think that was a good strategy. You need to find out their strengths and see what positions they can fill for your team. Are they super sub type players that can give energy and work rates against a tired opponent. Are they starter caliber players that you can build the spine of the team with. Back line going to forward, You need to find that out and teams like these are perfect to experiment. Jessie Fleming only played 50 minutes this game. Subbed out in the 35th minute in the first half and didn't start the second. She subbed back in at the 75th minute mark. I was actually thinking Cromwell was going to rest Fleming for the rest of the game since the team really needs work in passing to each other and build up, UCLA is a very young team. Made mostly of freshman and sophomores. These past 2 years, they picked up huge classes. Even with the hold overs from the previous year, there isn't a lot of experience up front or the midfield. They will need time to build chemistry with each other and Cromwell needs to figure out how best to use her players. Right now, the team either plays very direct when they get into the attacking zone or if there isn't any direction, pretty aimless when they don't have a steady midfielder in the pitch. Didn't see much of the second part this game but the direct attacking sequence we did see which I am fine if they are not forcing it. What I want to see more is steady build up and using it to create space for other players to make runs into. And that is what happened in one sequence in the second half. I think it was Gabby Goralski and Delanie Sheehan that created a 1-2 with each other and then opened up space for a through ball to Fleming. Fleming got a great shot off that the keeper for Santa Barbara had to make a great save on. The ball was only parried away and the rebound cleared. That is the stuff I want to see more of. Fleming would also get another shot off right at the end of the game. She saw the keeper leaning to the far post and redirected her shot to the near post and the keeper had to turn around and got a hand on it barely. Hailie Mace would jump on the rebound to score but it was called offside. Really impressed that Fleming is always thinking of placement with her shots. She doesn't need to force shots through defenders like what a lot of the young players are doing right now. Hopefully they watch fleming and learn from her. Been really impressed with Ashley Sanchez. Her work rate is always high. She doesn't mind tracking all the way back to help her defenders and fight balls in corners. She doesn't force plays if there isn't one there. Loves to create for others and holds the ball up well. Delanie Sheehan is fantastic, love that she is so aware of what is going on around her. Makes these runs to receive passes and links with her forwards and midfielders. Again something I want to see from more of the players. The defense on the other hand has struggled. Micah Teagan should of came off her line to punch the ball before the header came in. But she hesitated and it cost her. I'm really looking forward to Kennedy Faulknor and seeing if she can improve the back line. I think the next 3 games are road games against some stiff opposition. BYU and Virginia back to back. Good test to see where the UCLA team stands.
Ahh so Weber is in between. Ok that is actually better so UCLA doesn't have to tangle with 2 top teams back to back this early.