You can't be a great quarterback if nobody catches the ball. Besides, he wasn't the quarterback last year, he was a dmid (completely different role). The new guys have been fantastic, but he's been even better this year. He's currently tied with the league lead in assists and that's only part of the story.
Here is another way to look at playoff projections. This is a variation of what Knave does over on the MLS N&A board. He figures a lot more variables but I simplified it. Basically it looks like 45 points will make the playoffs. That number can go up or down but that's where the projected points puts it right now. You can calculate the rate at which teams need to acquire points to get there. If that rate is 2.0 or higher, they aren't going to make it. Nobody keeps that rate up for long in MLS. On the other hand almost all MLS teams pick up points somewhere above 1.0 PPG. If you need less than 1.0 then that team is probably going to get in. Here are the numbers at the moment: 1. FCD 0.73 2. SKC 0.92 3. HOU 1.00 4. SEA 1.15 5. VAN 1.20 6. POR 1.25 7. SJE 1.46 8. LAG 1.64 9. COR 1.67 10. RSL 1.75 11. MIN 2.00 By this measure FCD and Kansas City are safe. Houston is right on the line. Minnesota is dead. Only one team in the West has been earning more than 1.60 PPG so far this year so LAG, COR, and RSL are in real trouble.
7/31/17 Western conference projected points: This is if you take the PPG earned home and away so far this year and project that over the remaining games. 1. FCD 57.01 2. SKC 55.64 ------------------- 3. HOU 51.00 4. VAN 51.00 5. SEA 49.87 6. POR 46.36 ------------------ 7. SJE 45.36 8. LAG 38.02 9. RSL 37.35 10. COR 31.25 11. MIN 29.93 Kansas City almost caught up to Dallas who suffered a home loss. Houston dropped a couple of points with the home draw. Vancouver improved quite a bit with a road win. LAG moved up one spot but is still pretty far out of the playoff zone. PPG needed to get to the projected playoff line. The line edged up this week to 46: 1. SKC 0.83 2. FCD 0.86 3. HOU 1.08 4. VAN 1.14 5. SEA 1.25 6. POR 1.36 7. SJE 1.42 8. LAG 1.77 9. COR 1.86 10. RSL 1.91 11. MIN 2.00 Remember, anything less than 1.0 will likely qualify. Higher than 1.6 is in trouble. More than 2.0 and you are probably not going to make it.
It's tight right now. The Dynamo are 3 points from 1st and 4 points from being out of the playoffs. Also, is this the year that the worm turns on the Western Conference being more competitive than the Eastern Conference? 5 of the top 6 teams in the Shield standings are in the East.
It looks that way. So far this year the East is 34-26-23 (W-L-T) against the West with 39 games left. The East has only beat the West once head-to-head out of the last eight years. That was back in 2012. That current 8 win lead for the East is almost completely by the top teams. The top six West teams have 17 wins against the East overall while the top six East teams have 23 wins against the West. That's one more win per East team. Of course, the only playoff meeting between the conferences is the MLS Cup so that dominance by the East might not mean a lot.
8/9/17 Western conference projected points: This is if you take the PPG earned home and away so far this year and project that over the remaining games. 1. FCD 54.55 2. SKC 53.83 ------------------- 3. SEA 52.70 4. HOU 51.64 5. VAN 50.54 6. POR 48.17 ------------------ 7. SJE 46.65 8. LAG 35.54 9. RSL 36.83 10. COR 30.22 11. MIN 28.06 Seattle made the jump up to 3rd. Everyone below San Jose dropped. PPG needed to get to the projected playoff line. The line moved up this week to 48: 1. SKC 1.00 2. FCD 1.08 3. SEA 1.27 4. HOU 1.27 5. VAN 1.31 6. POR 1.40 7. SJE 1.45 8. LAG 2.08 9. COR 2.08 10. RSL 2.20 11. MIN 2.36 Remember, anything less than 1.0 will likely qualify. Higher than 1.6 is in trouble. More than 2.0 and you are probably not going to make it. No team is below 1.00 so I took the green away from SKC and FCD this week. They are both still in good shape.
8/14/17 Western conference projected points: This is if you take the PPG earned home and away so far this year and project that over the remaining games. 1. SEA 54.09 2. FCD 53.27 ------------------- 3. HOU 52.42 4. SKC 52.42 5. VAN 48.73 6. POR 46.86 ------------------ 7. SJE 45.33 8. RSL 39.67 9. LAG 34.64 10. COR 31.73 11. MIN 28.06 Seattle moves up to first with the home win while FCD ties at home. Kansas City loses on the road so they drop back into a tie with Houston. PPG needed to get to the projected playoff line. The line dropped back down to 46 this week: 1. SEA 0.90 2. HOU 0.90 3. SKC 0.90 4. FCD 0.92 5. VAN 1.25 6. POR 1.33 7. SJE 1.40 8. RSL 1.88 9. COR 2.00 10. LAG 2.09 11. MIN 2.18 Remember, anything less than 1.0 will likely qualify. Higher than 1.6 is in trouble. More than 2.0 and you are probably not going to make it. The lower dividing line means the top 4 are now in Green. RSL has crept back up to where they have a slim chance.
8/22/17 Western conference projected points: This is if you take the PPG earned home and away so far this year and project that over the remaining games. 1. SEA 55.25 2. SKC 53.51 ------------------- 3. HOU 51.65 4. FCD 51.26 5. VAN 50.74 6. POR 48.38 ------------------ 7. SJE 43.92 8. RSL 38.45 9. LAG 34.64 10. COR 29.55 11. MIN 28.68 Kansas City reclaims 2nd place. Dallas falls to 4th. PPG needed to get to the projected playoff line. The line is back up to 48 this week: 1. SEA 0.89 2. SKC 0.89 3. FCD 1.18 4. HOU 1.22 5. VAN 1.27 6. POR 1.37 7. SJE 1.67 8. LAG 2.27 9. COR 2.36 10. RSL 2.38 11. MIN 2.60 Remember, anything less than 1.0 will likely qualify. Higher than 1.6 is in trouble. More than 2.0 and you are probably not going to make it. San Jose is now in trouble. They only have 4 home games left to make a move. RSL went from borderline to out of it.
The Dynamo are making the playoffs, it's a question of the seed and probably 1-6 are all reasonable possibilities.
He had 1/2 of the current forward posse and he managed 2 assists and our leading scorer had 6 goals. This year our top 3 have 12, 8, and 7. Like I said recently, an overlooked aspect of the forward posse is how often they simply set each other up. I showed some math recently where the forwards together have more assists than Alex. In other words, they are a greater playmaker for each other than the nominal 10. By current count, it's Manotas 5 + Elis 4 + Quito 2 + Torres 2 = 13 > Alex 10. With the backup Fs, it's not even close: Memo 3 + Sanchez 1 + Wenger 1 + 13 = 21 > 10. That has continued past the point I ran the numbers. Over the weekend it was Manotas to Quioto. Against SJ you had 2 starting forward goals and then Sanchez is kind of a backup forward, and then the assists were Elis (F), Sanchez (backup F), and Boniek (M). I think I've also talked before about how he doesn't get road assists often, or assists against good teams. But people around here grow attached to players at the "solid" level. Can you imagine DeRo or Davis with this bunch of Fs?
2017 Playoff schedule TV coverage: UniMas, ESPN2, FS1 Knockout Round Wednesday, October 25 - 2 games Thursday, October 26 - 2 games Conference Semifinals Leg 1 Sunday, October 29 - 1 Western Conference game Monday, October 30 - 1 Eastern Conference game Tuesday, October 31 - 1 Eastern Conference game, 1 Western Conference game Leg 2 Sunday, November 5 - 2 Eastern Conference games, 2 Western Conference games Conference Finals Leg 1 Tuesday, November 21 - 1 Eastern Conference game, 1 Western Conference game Leg 2 Tues/Weds, November 28 or 29 - 1 Eastern Conference game Thursday, November 30 - 1 Western Conference game MLS Cup Saturday, December 9 - 3 pm CT
The postponement of the game on 8/26 means that the rest of the schedule looks like this with 4 of the last 5 at home. Houston will probably slip a bit in the points earned standings over the next couple of weeks as Dallas and Vancouver make up their games in hand. On the other side there is a good potential to move back up in late September/October. 9/9/2017 HOU v. COR 9/16/2017 SJE v. HOU 9/23/2017 NYC v. HOU 9/27/2017 HOU v. LAG 9/30/2017 HOU v. MIN 10/11/2017 HOU v. SKC 10/15/2017 SKC v. HOU 10/22/2017 HOU v. CHI
8/28/17 Western conference projected points: This is if you take the PPG earned home and away so far this year and project that over the remaining games. 1. SEA 53.61 2. SKC 53.51 ------------------- 3. HOU 52.21 4. VAN 51.98 5. POR 49.78 6. FCD 48.49 ------------------ 7. SJE 46.14 8. RSL 42.50 9. MIN 32.01 10. LAG 31.82 11. COR 29.99 Dallas falls but stays above the line. San Jose and Salt Lake make a jump but not quite enough. PPG needed to get to the projected playoff line. The line is at 47 this week: 1. SEA 0.71 2. SKC 0.77 3. VAN 1.00 4. POR 1.00 5. HOU 1.12 6. FCD 1.22 7. SJE 1.57 8. RSL 2.00 9. COR 2.40 10. MIN 2.44 11. LAG 2.67 Remember, anything less than 1.0 will likely qualify. Higher than 1.6 is in trouble. More than 2.0 and you are probably not going to make it. Some shuffling but not much change. Dallas will probably still make it but they need to actually win a couple of games. San Jose is lurking but they only get in if Dallas collapses. Salt Lake just doesn't have enough games left.
9/5/17 Western conference projected points: This is if you take the PPG earned home and away so far this year and project that over the remaining games. 1. SEA 53.61 2. SKC 53.51 ------------------- 3. HOU 52.21 4. VAN 51.98 5. POR 49.78 6. FCD 47.56 ------------------ 7. SJE 46.14 8. RSL 42.50 9. LAG 34.81 10. MIN 32.01 11. COR 29.76 Stays in 6th but falls just a bit on points expected with the home draw. LAG moves back up to 9th. PPG needed to get to the projected playoff line. The line is at 47 this week: 1. SEA 0.71 2. SKC 0.78 3. VAN 1.00 4. POR 1.00 5. HOU 1.12 6. FCD 1.25 7. SJE 1.57 8. RSL 2.00 9. MIN 2.44 10. LAG 2.62 11. COR 2.67 Remember, anything less than 1.0 will likely qualify. Higher than 1.6 is in trouble. More than 2.0 and you are probably not going to make it. No significant changes.
9/11/17 Western conference projected points: This is if you take the PPG earned home and away so far this year and project that over the remaining games. 1. VAN 53.61 2. SKC 52.49 ------------------- 3. SEA 52.21 4. POR 52.13 5. HOU 48.94 6. FCD 46.14 ------------------ 7. SJE 45.33 8. RSL 41.45 9. LAG 34.37 10. MIN 33.53 11. COR 31.57 Vancouver shooting up like a rocket. The next 3 are essentially tied. Houston drops out of contention for the top 4 for the moment. Dallas clinging to the 6 spot. PPG needed to get to the projected playoff line. The line is at 46 this week: 1. POR 0.40 2. SEA 0.50 3. VAN 0.62 4. SKC 0.71 5. HOU 1.14 6. FCD 1.28 7. SJE 1.67 8. RSL 2.20 9. MIN 2.50 10. COR 2.50 11. LAG 2.71 Remember, anything less than 1.0 will likely qualify. Higher than 1.6 is in trouble. More than 2.0 and you are probably not going to make it. The top four are locks. Houston and Dallas are still in good shape but San Jose isn't dead yet.
Remaining schedules for the WC contenders: Current points (remaining games home/away) RED are games against other contenders. 1. POR 44 pts (3/2): @RSL, ORL, @SJE, DCU, VAN 2. SEA 43 pts (3/3): @FCD, @RSL, VAN, @PHI, FCD, COR 3. VAN 41 pts (4/4): MIN, CLB, COR, @SEA, @SKC, @NYR, SJE, @POR 4. SKC 41 pts (4/3): NER, LAG, VAN, @MIN, @HOU, HOU, @RSL 5. HOU 38 pts (4/3): @SJE, @ NYC, LAG, MIN, SKC, @SKC, CHI 6. FCD 37 pts (3/4): SEA, @MIN, COR, @ORL, @COR, @ SEA, LAG ------------------------- 7. SJE 36 pts (4/2): HOU, @ DCU, CHI, POR, @VAN, MIN Portland is in first but they only have 5 games left. Their schedule difficulty isn't terrible. Seattle and Dallas play twice, home and away. Vancouver is their only really top opponent. Vancouver plays almost everyone except Houston. They have a lot of road games late. Kansas City has the double against Houston within four days. They also have mostly road games at the end. Houston plays just two West contenders but Kansas City twice. And two top East teams. Lots of home games late. Dallas doubles against Seattle and Colorado. Another team with a lot of road games late. San Jose only has 6 games left but 4 at home. They have 3 out of their last 4 at home. All of the teams have a lot of imbalance late: 4 out of the last 5 at home: Houston 3 out of the last 4 at home: Portland, Seattle, San Jose ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 out of the last 4 on the road: Kansas City, Dallas 4 out of the last 5 on the road: Vancouver
Portland is in they have an easy schedule Vancouver stil lhas a lot of games but it may be difficult if its a congested schedule SJ is a longshot SKC really only needs 9 points out of 7 games SEA is safe HOU needs 12 points out of 7 games is it doable? yes but they need to put together a run
To be safe, for sure. The way Dallas is playing, though, might not even need that. They are winless in their last 8 games. 3 points total over that stretch and they have looked awful.
3 wins or 47 points gets the Dynamo in. I don't see San Jose and Dallas both getting to 48. I say this with one reservation - Dynamo need to get a result vs. San Jose this week of some sort. A loss brings San Jose back into the mix
Right now 7th place team is -7 (headed for 44 points). So 45+ is making the playoffs. Either FCD or RSL are on that number, so that might push to -4. So I think 48 or more will make the playoffs in the West. Dynamo need 10 points from 6 games. Very doable. Only the Dynamo have 4 home games left. All other teams have 3 or 2 (FCD). So that is a big advantage. having said that, my view all season is that I have not seen anything from the Dynamo that shows they know how to win in the tough sledding of Fall soccer in MLS. Their whole style of play is one that has never succeeded in tough games. And they have demonstrated amazing fragility and poor mentality and tactical acumen. I would not be surprised if they slip into the playoffs or miss out all together.
9/18/17 Western conference projected points: This is if you take the PPG earned home and away so far this year and project that over the remaining games. 1. VAN 53.96 2. SKC 53.43 ------------------- 3. SEA 52.21 4. POR 51.00 5. HOU 48.30 6. SJE 46.55 ------------------ 7. FCD 45.33 8. RSL 43.07 9. MIN 34.26 10. LAG 33.56 11. COR 32.57 San Jose jumps into the projected playoff zone mostly because they still have 3 homes games. Dallas, who only has two, falls out. PPG needed to get to the projected playoff line. The line is still at 46 this week: 1. VAN 0.17 2. SKC 0.33 3. SEA 0.40 4. POR 0.50 5. HOU 1.33 6. FCD 1.33 7. SJE 1.40 8. RSL 2.00 9. MIN 2.83 10. COR 3.17 11. LAG 3.17 Remember, anything less than 1.0 will likely qualify. Higher than 1.6 is in trouble. More than 2.0 and you are probably not going to make it. The top four are locks. The middle is going to be interesting. Colorado and LA cannot get to 46 points.
Remaining schedules for the WC contenders: Current points (remaining games home/away) RED are games against other contenders. 1. VAN 45 pts (2/4): COR, @SEA, @SKC, @NYR, SJE, @POR 2. POR 44 pts (3/1): ORL, @SJE, DCU, VAN 3. SKC 44 pts (3/3): LAG, VAN, @MIN, @HOU, HOU, @RSL 4. SEA 44 pts (3/2): @RSL, VAN, @PHI, FCD, COR 5. SJE 39 pts (3/2): @ DCU, CHI, POR, @VAN, MIN 6. RSL 38 pts (2/2): SEA, @LAG, @COR, SKC ------------------------- 7. HOU 38 pts (4/2): @ NYC, LAG, MIN, SKC, @SKC, CHI 8. FCD 38 pts (2/4): @MIN, COR, @ORL, @COR, @ SEA, LAG I added RSL just for completeness.
I think the Dynamo will make it - I'm going with 47 or 9 more to secure it although I could see 45/46 being Ok. But what this recent mini swoon (mainly Colorado loss) is make getting 4th place for a home playoff game in the knockout round much tougher. Looking at standings and games remaining I would guess 50 will be 4th place which is 4 wins out of 6 remaining for Dynamo. That may be quite hard.