Gran eliminatoria por delante! Força Barça! 🔵🔴💪🏻 pic.twitter.com/SqLVyiB6Lo— Andrés Iniesta (@andresiniesta8) March 16, 2018
It's clear that Barca would have played A Madrid First Chelsea now Roma. Barca has played (will play Roma) 3 teams from that group this year Damm you Qarabag. Could be the only team unbeaten vs Barca
IIRC, bookings are cleared after the quarterfinals, correct? So the only way a Barca player could be suspended w/o getting a red card is by picking-up a yellow in both legs against Roma or both legs in the semifinal, even if Barca go all the way to the final(?). Except of course if Roberto gets a yellow in the first leg against Roma (which would be pretty bad with Semedo injured).
Correct Only for players who currently have one yellow card. The "3 bookings = one match suspension" rule still applies. Players who currently have one booking are... Aleix Busquets Digne Gomes Messi Paulinho Piqué Rakitic Semedo Suarez Correct. If he is booked in the second leg I think he would miss the potential semifinal first leg. But I'm not certain since the UEFA regulations only state that "all yellow cards expire on completion of the quarter-finals. They are not carried forward to the semi-finals." With all slates being cleared after the quarterfinals, I don't know if a booking in both semifinal legs would mean suspension for the final. UEFA regulations make no mention of this. So I'm assuming the only way a player can be suspended from the final is if he receives a red card in the semi second leg. http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles.../02/46/71/38/2467138_DOWNLOAD.pdf#ID2057_1090
Before things kick off tomorrow, here are the very latest best paying odds to WIN IT ALL for each CL team left: Barca now favorite 2.75 (11/4) ManC 3.5 Bayern 4 Real 4.5 Juve 12 Liverpool 13 Roma 80 Sevilla 80 https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner
Before Thursday's games latest odds for EUROPA to WIN IT ALL Atletico really short now at 1.4 (7/5) Arsenal 3.33 Lazio 9 RB Leipzig 10 Marseille 12 Salzburg 18 Sporting Lisbon 33 CSKA 40 earlier odds can be found above in the post I quoted, current odds are always from here: https://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/winner
Just one of four days, 2 of 8 games played and the odds have shifted pretty hugely. New odds to right and NOT italicized, big changes bolded. Before things kick off tomorrow, here are the very latest best paying odds to WIN IT ALL for each CL team left: Barca now favorite 2.75 (11/4) now 3 ManC 3.5 same Bayern 4 now 3.5 Real 4.5 now 3 Juve 12 now 700 Liverpool 13 now 14 Roma 80 same Sevilla 80 now 250
UPDATE from yesterday: Just TWO of four days, 4 of 8 games played and the odds have shifted pretty hugely. New odds to right and NOT italicized, big changes bolded. Before things kick off tomorrow, here are the very latest best paying odds to WIN IT ALL for each CL team left: Barca now favorite 2.75 (11/4) now 3 NOW 2.4 (12/5) ManC 3.5 same NOW 21!!!!! Bayern 4 now 3.5 SAME Real 4.5 now 3 NOW 2.5 Juve 12 now 700 NOW JUST 500:1 Liverpool 13 now 14 NOW 6!!!!!!!!!!!!! Roma 80 same NOW 1,000!! Sevilla 80 now 250 SAME
Well that's why they are only paying out "only" 21:1 when all the other first day losers paying out 250--1,000:1. Mainly they can put up three goals against most teams when they have a good game, and they'll be at home. But can they score 3 or more and still keep a clean sheet? Even if they let just 1 in they'll need 5 to advance. Of course the other reason their odds are so much shorter than the other 3 losers of leg 1 is that IF they manage to come back they have about a good a shot as the other three teams favored to advance, whereas the other 3 losers were supposed to lose and will be underdogs against any of Barca, Real, Bayern in the next round. You could also look at just odds to advance to semifinals, (also available on Oddschecker) and there arguably Sevilla should have better odds than ManC (but would still be a huger long shot to win it all due to the point of this 2nd paragraph).
With Salah injured and Henderson suspended, it is possible. Liverpool are probably 73% favorites though.
Yeah, I follow the thinking. Still 21:1 for City is far too short. Fans are overrating them big time like they have been all season. Even if they survive this round somehow they are still 4th-best on paper among the last 4.
Their odds to WIN IT ALL actually got shorter after I posted, 18:1 now is longest you can find, but I think it dipped to 16:1 yesterday. But that just means betting folks are looking for a big pay day and bragging rights, so the bookies had to shorten the odds to avoid the slight risk of having too much wagered on one thing even if that thing was very remote. Here's another take by 538's stats model of predicting: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/ it gives Man C a 7% chance of pulling off a turnaround in Manchester (vs. just 2% for Sevilla, Juve, and Roma but then less than 1% to make final), then gives ManC a cumulative 3% shot to make final, and 1% shot to win it all. So that suggests odds should be more like 100:1 on them. Liverpool has 93% to advance, 37% to make final, 11% to win. So their odds should be more like 9:1 (vs. bookies 6:1). Barca and Bayern each have 98%, 55%, and 29% shots to advance, make final, and win final. Real 98/49/24.
UPDATING AFTER THE 4 GAMES PLAYED YESTERDAY: Before Thursday's games latest odds for EUROPA to WIN IT ALL Atletico really short now at 1.4 (7/5) NOW 1.2 (6/5) Arsenal 3.33 NOW 2.6 Lazio 9 NOW 7.5 RB Leipzig 10 NOW 8 Marseille 12 NOW 22 Salzburg 18 NOW 40 Sporting Lisbon 33 NOW 100 CSKA 40 NOW 500 earlier odds can be found above in the post I quoted (NOW SEE POST 256 ABOVE), current odds are always from here: https://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/winner
I have a strong feeling that one of Man City, Roma, or Juventus will do something remarkable and go through. Man City vs Liverpool: At the Etihad, Salah is injured, and Henderson is suspended. Its unlikely but Man City did beat Liverpool 5-0 in EPL, so they are capable. Real Madrid vs Juventus: Juventus' performances home and away are pretty comparable. Ramos is suspended, Nacho is injured. It would take something extremely remarkable, but a team like Juventus is probably capable of it. Ronaldo is gonna score at least one, so Juve will need 4 goals regardless. 3-0 would take it to extra time, but Real would likely win on penalties, so they technically need 4 goals regardless. Without Ramos and Nacho, it is possible. After all one of the most shocking results in a UCL happened three seasons ago with Schalke's 4-3 win over Madrid at the Bernabeau. Schalke is not even close to the level of Juve, but Real thought they won already with 2-0 up away. However it will have to be a real masterclass performance by Juve, and Real will likely have to have a somewhat off day or think they already won. Juve will need a lot of luck. Roma vs Barcelona: Very harsh result, and 2 of Barca's goals were own goals. Roma after all did beat Chelsea 3-0 at home earlier, but Barcelona >>>>>> Chelsea. They will have to be very good in defense and not make any mistake near the penalty box, because Messi and Suarez are capable of taking advantage instantly. Indeed it will take something extremely remarkable, but not impossible. After all Barcelona did the impossible against PSG with a 4-0 deficit, and that is even tougher than any of these to overcome. True Barcelona were the favorites, but still a remarkable comeback, especially with Barcelona looking atrocious mostly in the first leg. And to be honest Roma vs Barcelona is the only fixture where Barca were strong favorites beforehand. Man City were already slight favorites, and Real Madrid were favorites but not strong favorites. I have a feeling one of the teams will do this. As a Juve fan I hope Juventus, but Man City looks the most likely at the moment.
Have to say I don't see it happening in any of those 3, but maybe 1 of the 4 losers can turn it around. ManC has best shot due to no Henderson, no Can, and likely no Salah plus ManC at home playing with little to lose. Sevilla could have 2nd best shot for the simple fact of being down just a goal. Juve though, how to they get 3 or more at Madrid without conceding and without playing much more aggressively on offense than their usual, and won't doing so lend itself to them conceding, perhaps more than 1? Roma, sure there were two own goals, but can Roma score at least 3 at home without conceding one? Hard for me to see.
I agree with you that we really cannot imagine it happening at the moment. No I do not think Roma can score 3 goals without conceding any. And No I do not think Juve can score 4 goals without conceding more than 1. Man City as well I do not see them scoring many goals without conceding either. Mane and Firmino are still fast players even without Salah, and will counter Man City if they throw all at attack. Same with Real Madrid vs Juve. However I can also say that I did not see the Barca comeback at Camp Nou. Did I see them scoring 6 goals? Yes possibly, but did I see them only conceding 1 if they tried? Absolutely Not. Cavani, Di Maria, and Draxler looked devastating in the first leg. Therefore anything can happen. Also penalties and red cards can make a big difference. For any reason if Juve get an early goal or penalty in Madrid, and/or one of Real's players gets sent off, it makes it a lot easier. Same with Man City, and Roma. Anything can happen in soccer, and you never know.
I have a feeling that one of the following 3 things will happen this season: Man United will win the EPL, Atlético will win La Liga, or Malaga will get relegated.
Valverde may have blown the title but at least he choked it away playing 'champagne futbol' which will please some.
Then there were just FOUR teams left, pre-draw, here are the latest odds: Real - 1.625 (13/8) Bayern - 2 Liverpool - 3.333 Roma - 11 Here's where things stood as recently was after the first legs were all played: Just TWO of four days, 4 of 8 games played and the odds have shifted pretty hugely. New odds to right and NOT italicized, big changes bolded. Before things kick off tomorrow, here are the very latest best paying odds to WIN IT ALL for each CL team left: Barca now favorite 2.75 (11/4) now 3 NOW 2.4 (12/5) ManC 3.5 same NOW 21!!!!! Bayern 4 now 3.5 SAME Real 4.5 now 3 NOW 2.5 Juve 12 now 700 NOW JUST 500:1 Liverpool 13 now 14 NOW 6!!!!!!!!!!!!! Roma 80 same NOW 1,000!! Sevilla 80 now 250 SAME
And then there were four on the road to Lyon: Atletico pays 1.1:1 (11/10) Arsenal pays 2.3 Marseille pays 6.5 Salzburg upsets Lazio and pays 7 draw tomorrow like CL I think. Here were the odds before this round, and revised mid round in ALL CAPS on right side: UPDATING AFTER THE 4 GAMES PLAYED YESTERDAY: Before Thursday's games latest odds for EUROPA to WIN IT ALL Atletico really short now at 1.4 (7/5) NOW 1.2 (6/5) Arsenal 3.33 NOW 2.6 Lazio 9 NOW 7.5 RB Leipzig 10 NOW 8 Marseille 12 NOW 22 Salzburg 18 NOW 40 Sporting Lisbon 33 NOW 100 CSKA 40 NOW 500 earlier odds can be found above in the post I quoted (NOW SEE POST 256 ABOVE), current odds are always from here: https://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/winner
The last time the 4 semi-finalists were from Italy, England, Germany and Spain was in 1981. The winners were Liverpool.— Gary Lineker (@GaryLineker) April 13, 2018 It's actually the ONLY time. Semifinal lineup was Liverpool, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Roma Inter.
Liverpool v Roma, Roma host return Bayern v Real, Real host return Arsenal v Atletico, Atleti host return Marseille v. Salzburg, Salz host return I believe So in both draws the two favorites drew each other which should boost the odds of the other semifinalists as one of Liverpool or Roma, Marseille or Salzburg will be in a single game final. New odds CL: Real 2.1 Bayern 2.3 Liverpool 2.4 Roma 10 (too long for Roma) New odds EL: Atleti 1.25 Arse 3.33 Mars 4 Salz 6.5