Just wanted to get my predictions up while only 1 game had happened. Feel free to get your own predictions up throughout the week: 1. Manchester City 2. Manchester United 3. Tottenham Hotspur 4. Chelsea 5. Arsenal 6. Southampton 7. Liverpool 8. Stoke 9. Swansea 10. Leicester City 11. Everton 12. Crystal Palace 13. Hull City 14. West Ham 15. Sunderland 16. Watford 17. Burnley 18. West Brom 19. AFC Bournemouth 20. Middlesbrough
You have a newly promoted club ahead of West Ham United, who was sixth last season. I'm not saying you will be wrong, but I think it's rare for a newly promoted club to finish ahead of a club that was sixth or higher the previous season. In 2006-2007, newly promoted Reading finished eighth, and the best club in 2005-2006 that finished behind Reading in 2006-2007 was Blackburn, who was sixth in 2005-2006. In 2009-2010, newly promoted Birmingham City finished ninth, and the best club in 2008-2009 that finished behind Birmingham City in 2009-2010 was Fulham, who was seventh in 2008-2009. I'm not going to check every newly promoted club for ten or more seasons to guarantee that those are the most recent examples of a newly promoted club finishing ahead of a club that was seventh or higher the previous season, but Reading and Birmingham City had the most successful newly promoted seasons I know of off the top of my head. @RichardL Do you know the best season by a club who finished behind a newly promoted club the next season?
I'm just not a believer in West Ham at all. Their expected goal differential was negative last season, and they were incredibly lucky to finish in the Top 6. I'm expecting them to come back to earth this season. I am kinda regretting only having Liverpool 7th though, forgot they picked up Mane until he scored today. Would probably put them 5th if I had it to do over.
West Ham United's expected goal differential last season based on what? Their expectations before 2015-2016? Wouldn't it make more sense to use their actual 2015-2016 performance than their expectations before 2015-2016? Their 2015-2016 goal differential of +14 was the same as fifth place Manchester United. For the five seasons from 2010-2011 through 2014-2015, the average goal differential for the seventh place club was +17.2, so West Ham United was worse than that, but not by a ton. I made a mistake yesterday. Without looking it up, I thought West Ham United was sixth, but Southampton passed them for sixth on the last day.
1.United 2.City 3.Liverpool 4.Chelsea 5.Spurs 6. Arse Dark Horse- Everton could finish as high as 6th
Before the season started, mine was: 1. Spurs 2. Arsenal 3. Liverpool 4. United I thought it'd take about 10-15 games for Guardiola to implement his system and find a quality, healthy back four (strike one); I thought Chelsea wouldn't be able to figure out their midfield, and Costa and Hazard's play would suffer (strike two); I thought Spurs would be like typical Arsenal (w/o the typical collapse), quietly racking up points all year from Matchday 1 to 38 (foul ball); and I just couldn't bear to put the Evil Empire above the Reds. I still don't trust their team chemistry.
I was speaking of their expected goal differential based on the quality of shots they got last year and the quality of shots their opponents got last year. While having really good finishers can allow a team to reliably overperform their goal differential, most top observers agree that the majority of the difference between expected GD and actual GD is luck/variance. And with how severely they overperformed, you can't possibly ascribe the majority of West Ham's good fortune to skill.