2016-2017 Champions League Group Stage Difficulty For Each Club Compared To Its Opponents

Discussion in 'Champions League' started by EvanJ, Aug 26, 2016.

  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    For each club, I took their club coefficient and subtracted the average of the club coefficients of their three opponents. A positive number means the club has a higher club coefficient than the average club coefficient of their three opponents and a negative number means the club has a lower club coefficient than the average club coefficient of their three opponents. In 2015-2016, the correlation between the difficulty for each club calculated this way and how many points the club got in the Group Stage was .7099. The correlation between club coefficient and how many points the club got in the Group Stage was .6966, so my method was a slightly better predictor than just going by club coefficients without considering the difficulty of the opponents. Here are the 2016-2017 Group Stage difficulties ranked from easiest to hardest:

    1. Real Madrid: 112.925
    2. Barcelona: 98.558
    3. Bayern Munich: 92.045
    4. Atletico Madrid: 66.854
    5. Porto: 64.957
    6. Benfica: 52.955
    7. Juventus: 45.598
    8. Paris Saint-Germain: 39.670
    9. Bayer Leverkusen: 35.861
    10. Sevilla: 30.338
    11. Arsenal: 29.946
    12. Borussia Dortmund: 24.782
    13. Manchester City: 18.710
    14. Napoli: 17.583
    15. Tottenham: 16.156
    16. Basel: 6.612
    17. Club Brugge: -1.197
    18. Lyon: -13.119
    19. Dinamo Kiev: -14.565
    20. CSKA Moscow: -17.897
    21. FC Copenhagen: -25.571
    22. AS Monaco: -34.120
    23. Leicester City: -38.189
    24. PSV Eindhoven: -49.186
    25. Sporting Lisbon: -53.110
    26. Besiktas: -55.973
    27. Borussia Monchengladbach: -57.584
    28. Celtic: -59.684
    29. Dinamo Zagreb: -62.818
    30. Ludogorets Razgrad: -76.228
    31. Legia Warsaw: -84.598
    32. Rostov: -109.714
     
  2. Gravizapa

    Gravizapa Member

    Aug 27, 2014
    Club:
    AC Milan
    Country:
    Latvia
    My predictions:
    [​IMG]
     

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