crazy that Leicester are the only team not in the top 4 (or 10) in their respective league the current La Liga, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and Seria A leaders are represented in the QF
Ah yes, I remember seeing him in a recent highlight involving Marseille. Juve didn't dawn on me when saw him, though. Even when I went through every team's booking count.
Time to revisit our discussion on whether winning your group allowing you to host the second leg is beneficial. We began here... http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads...-road-to-cardiff.2032209/page-2#post-34909815 Which led to this reply... Group runners-up/first leg hosts listed first. Bayern 10-2 Arsenal Paris Saint-Germain 5-6 Barcelona Real Madrid 6-2 Napoli Benfica 1-4 Dortmund Man City 6-6 Monaco Leverkusen 2-4 Atlético Madrid Sevilla 2-3 Leicester City Porto 0-3 Juventus Seventh straight season that at least 6/8 group winners advanced to the quarterfinals. Which still has me believing that winning your group is very beneficial. No need to tweak the tournament.
This is the toughest draw in recent memory IMO. Leicester is the only point out of the curve. I'd want this. Leicester BVB ATM/Monaco Real/Juve Bayern Don't really know about Juve. Ranking them based on them being top of Serie A. Haven't seen them this season.
Well I just go by the odds which say avoid ourselves and Bayern the most - 3:1 then Real 5 Juve 8 Atletico 10 BVB 12 Monaco 20 Leicester 35 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner At those odds I would not bet on the top 3 as the payout is too small but Monaco at 20 is nice, followed by Atletico (no longer chasing Liga or CdR), or Juve (Serie A pretty settled). I'd like us to play BVB or Monaco or Leicestar, but a Juve rematch would be pretty nice. Prefer to avoid the other heavy weights. BVB my favorite for fun and haven't played in years.
Agreed no need to tweak. My comment / guess was based on Real, Bayern and ManCity all losing their groups, and PSG and Sevilla also having OK chances to advance. I was not complaining about the set up of the tournament or downplaying advantage of hosting 2nd leg. Instead I was pointing out that it seemed like more of the top quality teams finished 2nd than usual (which would in turn put the advantage of hosting the 2nd leg to more of a challenge). Obviously the two 2nd leg games involving French teams really seemed to underscore the importance of hosting the 2nd leg (and thus of winning your group).
The odds for Leicester winning are so low - I might end up putting money on them winning it all. As for which team you guys want to face, I personally feel you guys should want to face Real Madrid in the quarterfinals. (Rather than say athletico)
That doesn't mean that hosting the second leg is beneficial. The better teams will tend to finish first and thus the group winners would tend to win more often even if they hosted the first game. But yeah... I have no big issues with the format. I'd prefer to see 16 teams in the group stage and reserve the Europe League for those second-tier teams, but when I hear about the World Cup moving to 16 groups of 3 I'm not gonna complain too much about 8 groups of 4. Also I think giving neither team getting an advantage is one of the main points of the two-legged concept. So saying hosting the second-leg is no advantage is not me being critical of the format, but just the opposite.
Fun with #s via Marca (though their headline writer claimed it was a 43% chance of El Clasico in quarters which is pure B.S.): http://www.marca.com/en/football/real-madrid/2017/03/16/58c9c762e5fdea012e8b4631.html For a fourth consecutive season, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid have progressed to the quarter-finals of the Champions League and there is a chance that either of the trio could be pitted against one another come the draw in Nyon on Friday. In addition, Bayern Munich, AS Monaco, Juventus, Borussia Dortmund and Leicester City will also feature in the last-eight of the competition. In the last three editions of the tournament, there has been a Spanish showdown in the quarter-finals. Despite that, the odds of it taking place again are just 42.86%, leaving a 57.14% chance that there will not be an all-Spanish showdown. In fact, excluding this season, there have been three or more representatives from the same nation in 17 editions, eight of which have seen nation pitted against nation. The most likely outcome on Friday is that there will be a Spain-Germany clash (68.57%). Meanwhile, the chances of Juventus, Monaco and Leicester City drawing a Spanish opponent rests at 42.86%. That there will be a Spain-Germany double-header only has a 17.14% chance of happening. Probability of a Spanish confrontation: 42.86% Probability that there will be no Spanish confrontation: 57.14% Probability of a Spanish team playing an Italian team: 42.86% Probability of a Spanish team playing a French team: 42.86% Probability of a Spanish team playing an English team: 42.86% Probability of a single Spanish tie against German: 51.43% Probability of two eliminations Spanish against German: 17.14% Probability of at least one Spanish-German tie: 68.57% Probability of facing ManC, ManU, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham 0% Probability of an all Italian, all French, all English quarter o% Probability of facing a team from top 6-15 coefficient countries: Russia, Portugal, Ukraine, Belgium, Turkey, Czech Republic, Switzerland, Netherlands, Greece, Austria 0%
Quick update / tangent on the ROAD TO SOLNA (Friends Arena, in Solna just north of Stockholm, Sweden) which hosts the Europa League final. Bunch of close games today before tomorrow's quarterfinal draw. Before today's matches are played I will post the odds, and then update those after 8 of the teams are fully eliminated today (at present there is just 1 3 goal lead by Genk over Gent and Genk hosts, otherwise Roma is down 2-4 to Lyon but hosts, all the rest are within 1 goal). ManU (hosting Rostov 1-1) is the runaway favorite: 15/8 or 1.87:1 Lyon 5.75 'gladbach 12 Celta Vigo 12 Roma 13 Besitkas 16 Schalke 20 Copenhagen 20 Anderlecht 25 Ajax 25 Genk 33 Krasnodar 50 (though they only trail Celta 1-2 and host) Olympiakos 50 (though level with Besiktas 1-1 but on road) Rostov 100 (facing mighty Jose and the pussy cats 1-1 on the road) APOEL 300 (on the road in Anderlecht down just 1-0) Gent 1000 At least one top 5 team will be out after Roma 2 v. Lyon 4 concludes, and another two top 10 teams will be out when 'gladbach 1 v. Schalke 1 and Ajax 1 v. Copenhagen 2 concludes. Meanwhile the British papers are up in arms that "only" 10,000 tix will be available to the final for ManU fans if they reach the final, seriously, have you watched your team? You are not likely to make the final (my hope and prediction). But don't worry there will be a statue of Zlatan erected outside the stadium: http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/manchester-united-reach-europa-league-10035433
Would sorta be a shame if Leicester City do not draw one of the giant 4 teams remaining (i.e. Barca, Bayern, Juve or last and least, LPB). They'll never be in the CL again and so far have avoided the big clubs this season. So would be a missed chance if nobody bigger than Monaco or Dortmund visit the King Power stadium in Leicester's one and only CL season (no offense to those two clubs).
I kind of follow your logic, but I think that their fans (and players too) would much rather face a Monaco or Dortmund or Atletico with say a 20% chance of advancing, rather than face one of the bigger (and more favored) squads you mentioned where say their chance of advancing is only 10%. I mean if they said screw it we are absolutely not going further in CL and we really need to focus on not getting relegated in EPL, sure bring on the stars of a huge club. But so long as they think that they have any chance of advancing I think that they prefer a smaller club.
Slight change at the very end still pre-draw: Bayern 3:1 Barca 3 Real 5 Juve 8 Atletico 10 BVB 12 Monaco 18 (was 20) Leicester 40 (was 35)
I'm not sure why there is such a difference in odds between the top 4. There's nothing between them if you ask me. At those odds I would bet on Juve winning.
AND THEN THERE WERE JUST 8 (updating what I posted earlier today before the second legs were played): ManU (hosting Rostov 1-1) is the runaway favorite: 15/8 or 1.87:1 NOW 1.5 Lyon 5.75 NOW 3.5 'gladbach 12 OUT Celta Vigo 12 NOW 9 Roma 13 OUT Besitkas 16 NOW 11 Schalke 20 NOW 9 AND LEAPFROGS TO A TIE FOR THIRD FAVORED Copenhagen 20 OUT Anderlecht 25 NOW 14 Ajax 25 NOW 12 Genk 33 STILL 33 REST OF THESE ALL OUT: Krasnodar 50 (though they only trail Celta 1-2 and host) Olympiakos 50 (though level with Besiktas 1-1 but on road) Rostov 100 (facing mighty Jose and the pussy cats 1-1 on the road) APOEL 300 (on the road in Anderlecht down just 1-0) Gent 1000 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/winner
Draw Bayern (as LPB fans voted) makes no difference, anything is possible, had somehow not seen a mas(c)hup of both games, pretty cool to give context to the comeback (which I have watched too much of):
Yeah but there aren't that many teams better in the Europa League honestly. Celta Vigo, Lyon, and Man Utd are the ones that will cause problems but they are quite inconsistent as well. Man Utd can be good on their day, but are also extremely inconsistent and I can't trust them 100%. Celta Vigo the same. Lyon might be a bit better, but I am still not sure if they have the experience to keep going like this in the Europa League. They were quite lucky as well. To be honest I don't know who is gonna win it at this point. I have a strong feeling it won't be Man Utd. Usually the team that looks strongest at this point is not the team that will win it, so I have this feeling Schalke might. Remember last season, Napoli look strongest in the group stage, but got knocked out by Villarreal. Dortmund looked strong in Round of 32 and 16, but Liverpool knocked them out. Liverpool looked strongest in Quarterfinals and Semifinals but Sevilla won it. Season before, Wolfsburg looked the strongest in Round of 32 and 16, but Napoli knocked them out. Napoli looked unbeatable in the Europa League in quarterfinals but then was knocked out by Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk, and Sevilla won it eventually. Usually the team that wins it is not the strongest favorites. This season Roma and Man Utd by far looked the strongest until Lyon beat them, and Man Utd barely beat Rostov. Then Lyon might look the strongest at this point, but then Schalke to win it in the end.
I am ready for the rematch. Quite an even tie actually. I don't want to be mean to you guys, but I hope we can take advantage of Busquets being suspended, and Neymar, Pique, and Rakitic a yellow card away from a ban. It will be a great game.