2016-17 UEFA Champions League draw: The Road to Cardiff

Well I was going to put this in the Other Teams Thread but no time like the present to start a new thread with a nice look at what could be the "pots" for the draw, which assumes that teams with higher coefficients win their qualifying rounds. The draw will be in late August after final playoffs conclude August 24, 2016:

Extremely early odds from the bookmakers look like this:
Barca 4:1
Bayern 5
Real 5.5
Man City 14
Atletico 16
PSG 16
Juventus 20
Dortmund 33
Arsenal 35
Napoli 66
Sevilla 66
Tottenham 66
Leicester 100
Porto 100
Roma 100

Odds from here, selected best paying / longest odds as a good bettor would do: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner

 

Not too much movement during the transfer window so far. The most active / improved team did not qualify for CL, sorry Jose. But here's the update such as it is. I'll try to do one more before the group stage draw after the pots are all solidified.

POT 2 (provisional)
Atletico Madrid
Borussia Dortmund
Arsenal
Manchester City*
Sevilla
FC Porto*
Napoli
Bayer Leverkusen

POT 3 (provisional)
FC Basel
Shakhtar Donetsk**
Tottenham Hotspur
Olympiakos
Dynamo Kiev
Lyon
Villarreal*
Ajax**

POT 4
Will contain other teams who qualify, including PSV Eindhoven, Sporting Lisbon, Viktoria Plzen**, Club Brugge, Salzburg***, Borussia Monchengladbach*, AS Roma*, Fenerbahce*, Sparta Prague**, Celtic***, Steaua Bucuresti**, Monaco**, Besiktas

* Enter in final qualifying round
** Enter in third qualifying round
*** Enter in second qualifying round (apologies if anyone already knocked out from here)

 

Quick update of the odds I posted above on May 31st:
Extremely early odds from the bookmakers look like this:
Barca 4:1 now 3.5:1 (and most at 3:1)
Bayern 5 now 4.5:1 (and most at 4:1)
Real 5.5 same
Man City 14 now 12
Atletico 16 same
PSG 16 same
Juventus 20 now 16
Dortmund 33 now 25
Arsenal 35 now 33
Napoli 66 now 80
Sevilla 66 same
Tottenham 66 now 55
Leicester 100 same
Porto 100 same
Roma 100 same

next three are Benfica 150
and Porto and Borussia 160 each

Odds from here, selected best paying / longest odds as a good bettor would do: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner

 

Too funny, people in Madrid got bent out of shape because the initial version of this calendar regarding the CL draw listed Barcelona instead of Madrid. So now Madrid has replaced Barca, but as MD pointed out via barcastuff_real Image: Uefa removed Barcelona and replaced it with Madrid on their map of the schedule for group stage draws. [md]; note: sydney and Istanbul aren't capitals either but only Barcelona was replaced with Madrid after pressure from Spanish press yesterday.

Have to say I will try to watch some Ajax today (and even root for them to score and esp. for Cillessen to keep a clean sheet), but not sure we'll see Cillessen again until CdR starts. Nevertheless being the #2 at Barca (and getting paid a Barca wage) is deemed better than being #1 at a storied club like Ajax; that is sort of what's wrong with football in a nutshell, no? I mean I do NOT see him playing CL or Liga unless MAtS is hurt or he somehow proves better than MAtS again and again in practice. How does he stay the Netherlands #1 if he is only playing 10 CdR matches a year?

 

Gerard translated:
Asked about his preferences for Thursday's Champions League draw, the Barça central defender responded:

"An easy group. The third-placed side from Italy in the last 16, the eighth-placed team from Germany in the quarter-finals, the team that finished fourth from England in the semi-finals, and the return legs all at home."

Which mirrors Real's path last season: Last season, Champions League winners Real Madrid faced this exact route on their way to the final at the San Siro. Following qualification from a group containing PSG, Shakhtar Donetsk and Malmo, they faced Roma, Wolfsburg and Manchester City in the knockout stage. They played every second-leg at home.

 

So very roughly the toughest draw that we or Real could face would involve some combination of these teams by pot:

Pot 2 - all tough but Manchester the real danger: ManC (4th most favored to win it all), BVB Dortmund (8th), Arsenal (9th), Napoli (12th), Bayer Leverkeusen (tied 13th), Porto (tied 15th) [Liga teams in Pot 1 catch a break as Atletic (tied 5th) and Sevilla (tied 10th) cannot be drawn]

Pot 3 - not too much here to make a "group of death": Tottenham (tied 10th) and Borussia (17th), Lyon (tied 18th), Sporting (20th) could all challenge for the next round.

Pot 4 - again not too much here to make a "group of death", no teams in top 16 in terms of odds: Monaco (tied 18th, 200 to 1), Besitkas (275:1 around 24th).

Based on this I don't expect huge swings in the odds after the draw, with the possible exception if ManC is drawn with a top Pot 1 team, and even there the biggest casualty would likely be the precipitous drops of the Pot 3 and 4 teams in that same group (since both ManC and the Pot 1 team would be expected to advance in that scenario).

Odds / placement to win it all from here: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner