I'll update this thread with playoff scenarios of note. As of Oct 4 - SKC is in control of their destiny for a Top 2 seed in the West if they win out and get to 57 points. The top 2 seeds get a bye in the first round. Dallas - 50 pts (4 games remaining, @van, VAN, @rsl, SJ) LA - 50 pts (3 remaining, @sea, POR, @SKC) VAN - 49 points (3 remaining, DAL, @dal, HOU) SKC - 48 points (3 remaining, @sj, COL, LA) If SKC wins out they will have 57 points. Since one of those wins would be over LA, LA can only finish with 56 points - 1 behind SKC. SKC must then climb over either VAN or Dallas, and fortunately they play a pair of home and away games with each other. If VAN wins both, Dallas can have max 56 pts, In any other scenario where VAN does not win both vs DAL, it means VAN cannot finish above 56 pts. So SKC "will" climb over one of DAL/VAN (again, assuming SKC wins out to 57 pts) The POR victory was absolutely critical in giving SKC control of their destiny in terms of Top 2 seed ****** For SKC to get the top seed in the West, there are a lot of scenarios. IF SKC wins out to get to 57 points, the most realistic scenarios is for: DAL to win their home games against VAN and SJ. Lose the road games (DAL 4-8-2 on road) against VAN and RSL (7-2-6 at home). This puts Dallas at 56 points. VAN to win their home game against DAL, lose their road game against DAL. HOU game doesn't matter. VAN can max out at 55 pts LA will already be no better than 56 pts if SKC wins the final game vs them. So (1): VAN/DAL swap home victories. & DAL loses at RSL or vs. SJ (two ties vs RSL and SJ also works) Or (2): VAN wins at home vs. DAL, ties @DAL. DAL ties or loses either @RSL or vs SJ. Or (3): VAN wins both games vs DAL, VAN ties or loses to HOU at home. ***** But as noted above, if SKC wins out, they can finish no worse than 2nd. Top seed would be a bonus pending other results. Due to losing tiebreakers - SKC MUST finish with more points than anyone else. The first tiebreaker is total wins, and SKC would have less wins in any scenario vs. LA, DAL, VAN where any of them tie for points with SKC.
well we got the result we wanted out of 1 game today. Seattle and LA draw keeping Seattle behind us and LA within touching distance.
top seed in the west would be nice for the optics, although I'm not going to lose much sleep over them getting it. getting the #2 seed, which is definitely realistic, would be very nice.
More important is to get points to have home field advantage in MLS cup. Otherwise the games are home/away and there is very little advantage there. (Of course this does mean not being 5/6 but that goes without saying.) Right now, by ppg, only New York would host us if we got there. Huge if we can maintain that.
Update Oct 8: Dallas - 51 pts (3 games remaining, VAN, @rsl, SJ) LA - 51 pts (2 remaining, POR, @SKC) VAN - 50 points (2 remaining, @dal, HOU) SKC - 48 points (3 remaining, @sj, COL, LA) SKC still controls their fate where 3 wins puts them at 57 points and at least a #2 seed/bye round. ********* For SKC to seed first in West: Win out to 57 points, and automatically leapfrog VAN and LA (which would have lost to SKC). Dallas needs to drop 4 of it's last 9 possible points (1 loss, 1 tie / or 2 ties) to max out at 56. If DAL only drops 3 points with a single loss/2 wins, and finishes at 57 points with SKC, DAL wins the "most wins" tiebreaker 17-16. ****** Dallas schedule: (1) The VAN @DAL game is critical. Ideally, VAN would win - but while the Whitecaps have been best/winning in MLS on the road this year (7-6-3), they have lots of injuries. Meanwhile DAL is incredible at home (11-2-2), and have Diaz back. Even a VAN tie is HUGE for SKC - because next for DAL is... (2) Surging and playoff hunting RSL at Rio Tinto (home 7-2-6) may be able to beat DAL (4-8-4 road). A tie also works if VAN tied @DAL above. (3) San Jose (road 5-9-2 and hopefully still in playoff hunt in the last week even after a loss to SKC) @ DAL may also pull a win or tie - recall SJ thrashed us 5-0 at our place, so you never know.... ****** SKC and Supporters Shield In addition to SKC winning first in the West, NY RedBulls (54 points today) can not win any of their last 3 games. Even with 3 ties (ending w/ 16 wins same as SKC), the GD tiebreaker will go to NY unless SKC averages a 3 goal margin of victory in their last 3 wins.... So basically NYRB have to lose 1, tie 2. Looking at their schedule: @ TOR : best chance for a NY road (5-6-4) loss v PHI: PHI has lost their motivation since USOC Final loss to SKC. They are 3-9-4 on the road anyways. @ CHI: worst team in the league, although they are 8-7-1 at home. Maybe they play for pride/spoiler/2016 job Most likely outcome: Grats NYRB on another Supporter's Shield.... ******* Upcoming games, who to ROOT FOR: SKC - of course RSL to beat POR at home, keeping RSL playoff hungry/eligible to beat DAL at home. VAN to win @DAL (or more realistically, tie)
updated playoff and supporters' shield chances. Portland's win at RSL nearly ends the West playoff drama.Updated SPI playoff odds:SKC 99%SEA 93%POR 91%SJ 16%RSL 1%HOU 0.6%— Paul Carr (@PaulCarr) October 15, 2015 SPI's updated @MLS Supporters' Shield odds: New York 53%, FC Dallas 42%, LA 4%, SKC 1%.Before tonight: NY 78%, DAL 17%, LA 3%, VAN/SKC 1%.— Paul Carr (@PaulCarr) October 15, 2015
Update Oct 15: Dallas - 54 pts (2 games remaining, @rsl, SJ) LA - 51 pts (2 remaining, POR, @SKC) VAN - 50 points (1 remaining, HOU) SKC - 48 points (3 remaining, @sj, COL, LA) SKC still controls their fate where 3 wins puts them at 57 points and at least a #2 seed/bye round. Without 3 wins, SKC can also finish #2 in any of these other scenarios: Win vs. LA, + one other SKC win (COL?), + one other SKC tie (@SJ?). Regardless of what LA does vs. POR Win vs. LA, + one other SKC win, + LA does not beat POR (LA pretty much invincible 12-1-3 at home though) If SKC loses to SJ, and LA beats POR (as expected), SKC can finish 2nd with wins in their last two, plus overcome what would be at least a 13+ GD deficit vs. LA. (e.g. SKC would need a 5 goal win vs LA and a 4 goal win vs. COL).... Don't count on this. SKC needs a result @SJ ********* For SKC to seed first in West: Win out to 57 points, and automatically leapfrog VAN and LA (which would have lost to SKC). Dallas can not win either of their last two games (1 loss, 1 tie / or 2 ties / 2 losses) to max out at 56. If DAL ends with 1 loss/1win, and finishes at 57 points with SKC, DAL wins the "most wins" tiebreaker 17-16. ****** Dallas schedule: (1) Just about playoff eliminated RSL at Rio Tinto (home 7-3-6) vs. DAL (4-8-4 road). RSL will still be mathematically alive at kickoff - so maybe they will fight. But having just lost to POR at home, who knows which version of RSL shows up. (3) v. San Jose (road 5-9-2) likely still in playoff hunt in the last week even after a loss to SKC, because LA will likely thrash Portland at LA to keep SJ alive. @ DAL may also pull a win or tie - recall SJ thrashed us 5-0 at our place, so you never know.... Likely outcome: Grats Dallas on winning the West. ****** SKC and Supporters Shield In addition to SKC winning first in the West (which now looks doubtful), NY RedBulls (54 points today) can not win any of their last 2 games. So basically NYRB have to tie 2. Looking at their schedule: v PHI: PHI has lost their motivation since USOC Final loss to SKC. They are 3-9-4 on the road anyways. @ CHI: worst team in the league, although they are 8-7-1 at home. Maybe they play for pride/spoiler/2016 job Likely outcome: Grats NYRB on another Supporter's Shield (GD tiebreaker over DAL).... ******* Upcoming games, who to ROOT FOR: SKC - needs at least a tie at SJ to control their destiny for #2 seed. LA to beat POR. Why? (1)Keep POR below SKC if SKC loses to SJ. (2) Keep SJ alive/motivated for DAL finale if SJ loses to SKC
It seems like hope is about the only strategy that's being applied to SKC lately. With their present form, SKC has shown they can be beat by Colorado and LA has the offensive guns to to overwhelm the overly leaky SKC defense. I don't have any confidence the team will do anything but limp into the playoffs.
On the opposite side Colorado is eliminated from the playoffs and seem like they're throwing out some players who haven't played a lot this year. And the Galaxy have the second worst road record in the league while we are one of three teams that have lost just once at home.
Update Oct 17: Dallas - 54 pts (2 games remaining, @rsl, SJ) LA - 51 pts (2 remaining, POR, @SKC) VAN - 50 points (1 remaining, HOU) SKC - 48 points (2 remaining, COL, LA) SEA - 47 points (2 remaining, @HOU, RSL) SJ - 47 points (1 remaining, @DAL) POR - 47 points (2 remaining, @LAG, COL) SKC cannot finish first in the west or win Supporters Shield SKC does not control their destiny for #2 seed, even if SKC wins out: LA must lose or tie against POR - an unlikely scenario given LA's 12-1-3 dominance at home. SKC controls their destiny for the #3 seed if SKC wins out. Seattle will likely win it's last two games against essentially eliminated HOU and RSL SKC controls their destiny for playoff qualification, with a single win in it's last two games. I'm rooting for a LA/POR tie on Sunday- because I still want to hang on to the idea of getting a #2 seed/bye. However given SKC defensive injuries (we are looking at our #4 and #5 depth chart CB's to start, and maybe our #3 CDM as well), we should probably just be thinking of making the playoffs right now, and not seeding. ********* We need to score a lot of goals at home the final two games. I hope the crowd is ready to bring it*. I'll be doing my share and am fully invested in the belief that the Sporting Park faithful can affect the outcome. *On that note: if the crowd and team did not will SKC to last minute victories from the jaws of defeat vs. PHI and VAN earlier this year, we would be miserably sitting at 42-44 points today and scoreboard watching. If, (correction- when) our team needs us during these final home matches - lets be there for them in full voice and energy. My attitude won't be that I 'expect' to win - my attitude is I want my team to aggressively 'take' two wins. Go, SKC!
Fair enough, but just remember what happened to Seattle at Sporting Park when they played against 9 guys who haven't played very much. I think SKC will win, because of the home crowd advantage. As far as LA's away record, that is puzzling. But, if I was a betting person and I looked at Keane, Dos Santos, Zardes and Gerrard vs Dwyer, Nemeth, Zusi and Feilhaber in present form, I would be a bit worried. Its going to be very interesting to see if PV can get the defense repaired and the offense productive.
Update Oct 18: Portland thrashes LA. SKC again controls destiny for 2nd seed.... Dallas - 57 pts (1 remaining, SJ) LA - 51 pts (1 remaining, @SKC) VAN - 50 points (1 remaining, HOU) POR - 50 points (1 remaining, COL) SEA - 48 points (1 remaining, RSL) SKC - 48 points (2 remaining, COL, LA) SJ - 47 points (1 remaining, @DAL) Win out at home, and the second seed is all ours. LA is going to be highly motivated to atone for today's game.
Wednesday is a must win now, don't want to head into the final game with a pissed off LA team needing a result.
Doesn't change anything. Win out and we're the 2 seed. In fact falling to 6th is better than staying ahead of Portland.
Forget seeding for a second, I was just thinking about scenarios to get into the playoffs. Basically: SKC win and they're in. SJ lose and SKC is in. SKC draw and SJ draw, SKC is in. SKC draw and SJ win, SJ is in. SKC lose and SJ draw, SJ is in (I think). Both will be equal on points and wins but SJ has better GD. The tie breakers are dumb this year. Someone double check please.