2015 Revs Prediction Thread

This comes closest to expressing my view. Regression to the mean should be kicking in. Last year we had almost no significant injuries; we can't expect that to hold indefinitely. We will not have access to JJ and LN at times. We also have very little depth.

However, there is nothing to say (other than 18 (17?) years of club history), that we can't pick up significant players during the season. Furthermore, there are huge advantages to playing together for years. Lastly, I have a really good feeling about Okoli.

So I guess I'm in the 51-55 group.

 

Methods explained:

http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads...s-projection-by-most-recent-meetings.2009760/

Basically, the most recent, corresponding Home / Road results vs every other opponent are expected to repeat themselves once or twice in 2015 (except NYCFC & OCSC where 1-1 applies).

For NER, the most recent results vs other Eastern Teams can be derived from those in 2014 season.

However, results vs Western Teams would date back to 2013, base on the Home / Road match-up with them in alternating seasons, due to the Imbalanced Schedule currently in place.

Hence, through the combinations of:

• home/road scores for each conference from different seasons,
• schedule changes across seasons, and
• the late form of last season;

the Projected W-L-T Outcomes are not simply a carbon copy of the previous season, especially in the case of NER:

• 2014 Actuals: 17W-13L-4T, 55 points.
• 2015 Projection: 14W-9L-11T, 53 points.

For Cup Nemesis LA Galaxy, the differences are even more drastic:

• 2014 Actuals: 17W-7L-10T, 61 points.
• 2015 Projection: 12W-10L-12T, 48 points.

 

61 points

 

In the original thread I voted 46 - 50 points. My thought was that we will probably miss some key players (3+) for more games than last year. I guess I see us more in the 51 - 55 range. MLS is an odd beast. Very difficult to predict.

 

LA is projected to finish with 10 losses and less points than the revs? That's pretty funny.

 

Yes, that's the fun part about the Projection Method, that the new season is not simply a replica of the last.

TBH, I was equally surprised to see LAG projected at 5th in the West (esp. after the near miss on SS last season), but upon further verifications, the outcome was unmistakable:

 

Revs are currently 9-9-7 (34 pts), with 9 games left.

So, they need to go 7-2-0 just to match last year's 55 pts.

 

Someone said the revs had a "decent chance to compete for 3 trophies." I guess "decent" and "compete" are subjective terms but knowing how we rarely are legit SS contenders come the fall and never have the depth to seriously compete in the USOC, it still made me laugh.

 

If the Revs win 7 out of the last 9, then I'll be good!! 5 of the remaining games are against the bottom 4 teams in the east. So hey, anything is possible!

 

I voted in the 56-60 range like a lot of people did. Shows you how much I know! Pass me some of that Kool-Aid, I'm thirsty!

 

As one who is out; I'll at least say I was right in my belief that the Revs would have more ties this year than last year. My problem was that I was reducing last year's loses with ties and the Revs this year also went and reduced wins to ties!

 

Don't feel too bad guys and gals, there are only a couple of teams that have a shot at more the 55pt. this season and they will need to win out to do so(somewhat unlikely).

Kind of a weird season, pretty much every team as looked pretty bad for long streaks with the expectation of maybe Vancouver who have maybe been the most consistent team this year.

 

Even they had a pretty bad patch at one point during the season, but of course, nowhere near as bad as ours. While the idea of avoiding a 10-game winless streak is always a good idea, maybe the goal should only be to have a 3 or 4 game streak.

56-60 points?! Man, I must have been really thirsty to make that prediction, cause I was surely drinking a lot of Kool-Aid!

 

I would guess that this is probably about the most balanced, parity-wise, season the league has ever had. Not only are both conferences in contention for the supporter's shield this late, but only a few teams were eliminated from the playoffs up until the last week or so.

And, even the weakest teams in the league have been able to live up to the "on any given day ..." standard.

Pretty much every team that could be considered among the best in the league at one point or another, have also had some pretty brutal stretches: DCU, RB, LAG, Sea, Dallas, Revs, Vanc, Tor, ...

 

Nostradamus! You ended up being accurate in multiple ways with this post, congrats. (bolding mine). I was one of the pessimists that said 46-50 and we're just about there. Factoring in JJ's injury, Agudelo not meeting expectations and very little depth, here we are, about .500 heading into the home stretch.

 

Thanks, brother.

 

Yay, I predicted accurately...

 

Are the revs not predictable? Just kind of sadly funny when you throw a dart at a bullseye and you're actually right.

 

Not me! I throw the dart first, and then I paint the bullseye around it. It works every time!

 

The KADs say the NNNs dominate this board, yet 28 of 32 predicted the Revs would finish with more points than they actually did.

 

Are you sayin we got crappy NNN's? Come on -- We invented NNN's!!

 

The comments are a lot more enlightening than a one-time poll, done at the height of anticipation of the new season.

 

Now, how about a Playoff Prediction survey?....