On the opposite side, NY wins on Wed Toronto and Crew draw on Sat Revs beat Montreal DC loses/draws with Chicago And Revs in 2nd place leading into the last weekend.
I like this option much more. If it comes down to your first scenario, and we go into the last weekend 3 points up on Orlando, we would own the first tie-breaker (wins, 13-12). A loss for us in the final and Orlando win would then tie that one. Next TB is GD, and that's where we SHOULD be OK. Even compared to a -10 for OCSC.
Orlando has to make up a huge goal differential to pass us for the 6th seed in the playoffs. They are more likely to catch Montreal and or Toronto.
http://pressbox.mlssoccer.com/content/competition-rules-and-regulations To even reach the tie-breaker, we'd have to lose both and ORL would have to win both, leaving both teams are 13-13-8. So, it would come to GD, where the Revs are currently ahead by 10 (zero to -10).
Just win and forget about the "what-ifs." And if DC drops a point somewhere along the way, how do we rate against them in the tiebreakers? Never mind, either they will get 6 points, 4 points, or something less, so if we win both and they don't, we jump ahead of them.
But if we lose both and ORL win both, then our Goal Differential...differential would only be +6, and that assumes 4 games won and lost by a single goal. Four two-nil games, and our goal differential differential is only +2. If we lose these two games and Orlando win both of there's, we won't make the playoffs...because we don't deserve to be in the playoffs.
This is a great example of success in the goal of establishing mediocri... er.. parity across our league.
Just updating this, the Revs obviously not in the same position they were in a few weeks ago. The interesting thing I see is that for the Revs to host a game (1-4), they'll probably need at least 3 points in 2 games
The Tar is almost to a boil and the truck is loaded with bags of turkey feathers and a nice long pine trunk. We're coming for you Blooter. You can't hide.
Slim chance for a home game this year, and we know how well this team plays away from home. Talk about peaking too soon, since that game in Montreal that ended our streak, the Revs had 46 points with 4 games to go, a potential to get 58. I predicted 54 or 55, based on games we "should" win, but we all know how that went. With a win next week, that would give the Revs 50 points, and it gets complicated from there. If DC (51) beat Columbus (50) we would have the same record as the Crew (14-13-8), but We'd have to win or they'd have to lose by a margin that favors us by more than a goal (i.e. they are ahead of us +1 on GD). If that were to happen, we'd could host them, depending on how the Montreal-Toronto game ends. Toronto (49) is away to Montreal (48), so if either of them wins, they top the Revs. With a draw, Toronto would have 50, and they have more wins, so they win the tie-breaker and would host us, if we are 4-5, and Montreal would be 6th at 49 points. If Montreal win, they'd have 51 points, so they could finish 3rd, no matter what happens between DC and Columbus: (DC 54/Col 50; Col 53/DC 51; or DC 52/Col 51). They would beat Columbus in the tie-breaker with more wins, and since both are at +3, they'd beat DC on goal difference. An here we were; licking our chops with the possibility of 2nd place a few weeks back. Part of me wants to see the Revs lose 5-0 and Orlando win 4-0 to put an end to our misery and make sure that the Front Office Creative Department have to come up with a different excuse: "Even though they added another playoff spot, we still couldn't finish 6th out of 10, but we almost made the playoffs, and were in contention for a playoff spot until the very end. This season was a success. All we need to do in the off-season is cut the scrubs who played in Rochester and bring in a few more college kids, maybe see if there's someone good on the waiver wire, and we're good to go!"
This is why people here talk ad nauseum about "difference makers." It's such a small margin of error between the top teams and just sneaking in the playoffs. We need a matchwinner- what Lee and JJ were a year ago.