2015 AFC Club Competition Rankings

As already discussed, from next year, the distribution of Champions League and AFC Cup spots will be determined by a ranking. This will be made up using both club results and international rankings:

- Club: Results from the past 4 club competition seasons (2011-2014) will make up 70% of the total rating;
- International: Exact how this segment will be determined is unknown (FIFA Ranking? Results since 2011 in AFC Cup and World Cup qualifiers?), but will make up 30% of the ranking.

Calculations of club competitions also have not been released, however, an indication of how these may be determined was found in the 2013 ACL assessment criteria (see here), but to summarise:

- All matches will be allocated 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, and 0 for a loss;
- Play-off matches will not be counted;
- Bonus point for progression from group stage to L16, L16 to QF, QF to SF and SF to Final;
- Total points collected for each country are divided by the number of teams said country had competing;
- Points collected via AFC Cup are divided by 3;
- There is no mention of AFC Presidents Cup.

I have applied this to calculate the ranking of teams from the start of 2011 to the end of this group phase of 2014:


Points here will make up 70% of the final ranking (how these will be standardised with International Ratings is yet to be determined).

In the final rankings, competition spots will be distributed via:

- 1-24 (red) will receive ACL slots (direct group stage slots will be determined via assessment criteria).
- 25-32 (yellow) will receive direct AFC Cup slots.
- 33-47 (purple) will receive AFC Cup play-offs slots.

Green shows countries still active in either 2014 ACL or AFC Cup.

Countries that have not sent clubs into competition in the last four years are ranked using the current FIFA rankings of their national teams (as I dont know how these will be calculated).

Additionally, below is the ranking including AFC President Cup results. I have assumed that points gained will be divided by 9:


If anyone notices any mistakes, please let me know. I will post updated tables after each round of competition to use as a reference of how countries are progressing and likely make up of 2015 ACL and AFC Cup.

 

I agree that this is how I read things will be done. However I applied this these methods using the latest FIFA ranking to the 2013 assessment and got nowhere near the results the AFC got. I might have another go today.

Just for reference, part of the 2013 assessment took into account club and international performances. This was worth 200 points out of a total of 1000. 140 of these were based off club rankings, 60 for international. The a brief method of this calculation (though not complete) can be found here (page 2) and the final points calculation can be found here (under the column "Technical Standard, page 4)

 

So after some fishing around, I found a document explain how the 2013 AFC Champions League Technical Standard Criteria was calculated.

Firstly, the AFC decided to use 2009-2012, rather than 2010-2012!!!!!

The calculations are as I and @thewitness have discussed previous. I have managed to recreate the 2013 ranking almost exactly (there a a few values that make no sense whatsoever). However, some interesting points regarding penalty shoutouts:

1) In single leg matches, if a penalties are required to get a winner, the winner gets 3 points, the loser 0. ie -

2013 CL L16: Al-Jazira v Al-Ahli, 3-3(aet); 2-4 penalties

Al-Jazira had 0 points added to UAE ranking for 2013. Al-Ahli added 3 points to KSA ranking.

2) In home/away legs, if penalties are required to get a winner, the winner of the shootout gets 3 points for that leg, regardless of the results after extra time. ie -

2011 AC QF L1: Chonburi 0-1 Nasaf Qarshi
L2: Nasaf 0-1 Chonburi (aet); 4-3 penalties

Nasaf Qarshi added 6 points to UZB ranking. Chonburi added 0 points to THA ranking.

Additionally, where groups have had teams withdrawn, results against the withdraw team are void. Points gained by teams are multiplied by 0.66 (ie Team A has 4 points from 4 games will actually add 6 points to the ranking). Also, the withdrawn team is treated as if they have not enter the competetion (ie Sharjah of UAE withdrew after 4 games of the 2009 CL. UAE points for 2009 was calculated added all points gained by UAE teams and dividing by 3, rather than 4. This could be important if Ninh Binh are disqualified from this years AFC Cup).

 

2015 Rankings taking into account the above posts:



This includes all group stage matches and bonus points for L16.

*I think the 23th October 2014 FIFA Ranking will be used for the final ranking, of course, these points will change monthly. For reference, teams with red numbers are playing in the FIFA World Cup, and those in purple will play in the AFC Challenge Cup.

 

Zero word on allocation, as far as I know. Several formats have been "announced" over the years, but ultimately AFC Executive Committee, from under advice of the AFC Competitions Committee, will decided among themselves which countries get however many spots. There have been years when they have totally ignored rankings and suggestions from the Competition Committee, so who knows?!?!

Earlier this year it was announced that the top 24 ranked nations will get CL playoff spots. They still need to pass other BS criteria set the ExCo to receive direct spots. Discussion on in the past can be found here. Countries ranked 25-32 get direct AFC Cup spots and 33-47 get AFC Cup playoff spots. But I wouldn't bet my mortgage on any of that happening.

However, from now until at least 2016, East and West will be separated until the final. So in theory, we should see 16 teams in each half for the group stage. Of course the middle countries could end up in either half. India is considered west, but was in the east qualifiers this year and in the past, a team from Uzbekistan found their way into the east too.

But ultimately, nothing is set in stone until the november ExCo meeting. Anything announced should be treated with caution until we see the final announcement because lets face it, this is the AFC, they like nothing more than making things as they go along!!!

 

So this confirms what @druryfire posted yesterday. If this holds true, 24 teams gain automatic groups stage spots with 32 teams fighting for the remaining 8 berths.

Will be interesting what format they go with for the play-offs. I would go with a straight 2 round knockout, each round over 2 legs (for 4 match days). But I have a feeling that the AFC will go with a similar system to this year whereby 16 teams start in QR1, 8 in QR2 then 8 in QR3, each over 1 leg.

I have used the current ranking of the top 24 in post #7 (without Presidents Cup results) to guesstimate the allocation of slots:



* If both AFC Cup finalists are from the West, I predict a UZB team will switch to the East; if both come from the East, I predict IND will switch to the West.

Also of note is that Australia are limited to 3 slots, so their 4th berth maybe reallocated (IDN maybe?) or not used at all. Additionally, I dont know what will happen if a teams qualify via league and being AFC Cup finalists.

 

Updated Rankings after Last 16 matches in ACL and AFC Cup, includes bonus points for reaching quarter finals. Also May FIFA points added. For rankings with Presidents Cup, groups stage results have been added:



Potential ACL allocation as it stands:



Next update on June 6th, which will take into account Challenge Cup and pre-World Cup friendlies.

 

Updated Rankings taking into account the new FIFA Rankings. These include pre-World Cup friendlies and the AFC Challenge Cup:



Biggest gainers are Challenge Cup winners Palestine. Their national team is now ranked 10th in the AFC and subsequently move into the top 24 in the club allocation rankings.

Below is a guesstimate of how the ACL slot allocation stands given the information we currently know:


* As there is 17 teams in the West play/offs and 15 in the East using the current standings, I am assuming one of the UZB teams will transfer to the East.

 

Updated Rankings taking into account todays FIFA Rankings. These include World Cup and recent friendlies:



ACL slots give the information currently known:



* A UZB play-off spot moved to East to balance out allocation
** As AUS can only have 3 teams, their 4th play-off spot transferred to VIE

 

Because when there has been an unbalance in the past, AFC as always moved an UZB team from west to east, presumably being the most eastern of the western countries.

See wiki articles for the 2013 and 2012 editions and reference therein.

 

AFC released their calendar for 2015 today (I have upload the file incase the link doesnt work). Some items of note regarding ACL:

1) Last 16 will be played over 1 leg again, after being played home & away for the last 2 years;
2) Final will also be played over 1 leg, again a change from the last 2 seasons;
3) The play-offs will be played over 3 single legged rounds.

EDIT: Apparently they have 2 calendars for 2015. One with singled legged Last 16 and Final, one with home & away Last 16 and Final.

So with respect to point 3, I think it is safe to assume that the format for each zone will be:

PO1: Teams ranked 9-16 enter
PO2: Teams ranked 5-8 paired with PO1 winners
PO3: Teams ranked 1-4 play against PO2 winners

In 2014, teams were ranked in accordance to MA's ranking, then by final league position.

If AFC apply the same rules in formulating the 2014 draw to this year, using the current rankings highlighted in post #16, the play off draw could look like:



I have seeded AFC Cup finalists last in each case, they could move up the seedings depending on the MA the finalists belong.

Also, the AFC Cup will have 3 rounds of playoffs, which make sense as the champions of MA's ranked 33-47 (and potentially the runners up of those ranked 25-32) will send a team in addition to the final 6 teams of this years AFC Presidents Cup

Does anyone have any information on the proposed format for AFC Cup?

 

"JDT, however, have to compete in the qualifying tournament in February. If they fail to make the tournament proper, they will compete in tournament proper of the second-tier AFC Cup.

If that happens, FA Cup champions Pahang will have to play in the qualifying tournament in the AFC Cup. Previously, the Super League and FA Cup champions were given automatic slots in the AFC Cup’s tournament proper."

The second paragraph makes no sense to me. What if JDT get knockout in the 3rd and final play off round.... how can Pahang play in the AFC Cup qualifiers?!