2015-2016 CCL - Hope Springs Eternal

Odd to look at that field and realize that LAG and RSL are the weak links for MLS.

 

Its okay, I fully expect Seattle to do their traditional sh*tting themselves when things of importance are on the line. They are so eco-conscious up in Cascadia that they will bottle things on your behalf! DC as a group is still too green when it comes to international games.

Vancouver will continue to be a nonfactor in world events alongside the rest of Canada apart from the Women's WC going on. Stealing a joke from Russell Peters, they call it the Canadian Championship, not a Cup, because that would imply they possess some testicular fortitude, which is clearly lacking.

All in all, I think only LA and RSL - based on recent history - stand a good chance of advancing.

 

The draw is done and we've got perhaps the easiest draw we could have. Comunicaciones of Guatemala and Central of T&T.

The GOD is Seattle, Vancouver and Olimpia of Honduras. Any of them could feasibly advance, specifically if Seattle and Vancouver split points. Dat Cascadia rivalry do.

DC's draw is pretty easy as well Árabe Unido (the divers) of Panama and Montego Bay of Jamaica. RSL has two decent Central American clubs in Municipal of Honduras and Santa Tecla of El Salvador.

For MLS teams as a whole, they avoided all the Costa Rican teams, which is as good as could have reasonably be asked for and based on who is in the group with them, it's likely that both Costa Rican teams will get knocked out in the group stage. Maybe Herediano could squeeze past Tigres but it's unlikely that Saprissa will take down Santos.

 

You have to think the Sounders season will be a failure if they don't win MLS Cup this year. The rest of the league largely stood still or got worse, Oba/Clint are on the wrong side of their peak years and Sigi might not exactly be on thin ice, but there are only so many MLS Cup-less seasons left in Seattle (LA2 would be smart to hire him). I expect them to send a reserve-heavy squad.

 

eh, I don't think Sigi has quite figured it out yet. They are peaking pretty damn early yet again and history has shown that a team that wins MLS Cup is a team that peaks at the end, not this early. Sadly MLS is not a marathon like the rest of the world, it's a relaxed/semi-competitive jog and a full on sprint at the end. And Bruce knows this formula all too well (which is why we bomb in the CCL in the knockout rounds, it's our shitty early season time)

 

we normally do very well in the group, it's the knockout stages that worry me! huge part is the bs scheduling of mls and how it lines up with ccl

 

I’m fully expecting them to sputter down the stretch, but all the more reason for Sigi to send reserve laden squads.

// edit: though Sigi does seem to operate under the illusion you can and should win it all every season. Arguably his 100% effort for MLS, CCL, USOC and SSS every year has hurt the team when it comes to the ultimate prize. We’ll see if he’s learned that lesson.

 

I know its a friendly, but seeing how the Galaxy do against Club America in the summer will be good practice if LA manage to get past the group stage. CA could be one of our opponents. There will inevitably be Mexican teams in the knockout stages, so it would be good to prepare. Or at least that's how I justify the friendlies.

 

Sigi's record shows that he does in fact know how to win MLS cups. There is nothing there to be learned particularly. The question is, is he under pressure to do more than that in Seattle? Do the owners have unrealistic expectations? (We already know their fans do.)

 

Sigi tends to win Cups in spite of his strategy, his MLS Cup wins have come on the back of Supporters' Shield seasons. He seems to be stuck in the European mentality of trying to be the best team every game over the course of the season, rather than being the best team over 4-5 weeks in the fall. His post-season strategy seems to follow that same mentality, losing 1-0, but progressing on goal difference seems anathema to him. Sigi is arguably the best regular season coach in MLS history, but he's been undone so many times in the post season through a combination of teams running on fumes and coaches who can outthink him over a two game series.

That said I'm not sure there's a coach in MLS I'd want to replace Bruce when he goes at least based on what's currently on show in MLS.

 

As opposed to all the coaches who have adopted a "we'll peak in the playoffs" strategy and have not won any cups? I think you may be selling him a bit short.

 

I know I'm in the minority on this but I don't buy the whole "we start slow on purpose so we can peak later argument." I just don't think that is an idea that great coaches push. The best coaches push for excellence at every moment- in practice, in scrimmages, and in every game be it early or late season because that is how good habits get established. Now Bruce may rotate his players more in the regular season than other coaches so they are better rested for the playoffs but other coaches do that as well. I haven't seen any data on whether Bruce rotates his players more or less than the average MLS coach. But because our recent seasons have followed the same pattern - slow starts and then big late season runs it gets to be seen as a actual strategy. And once you believe that you see evidence everywhere. For example last season a lot of us perceived Keane being left off the roster for the final regular season game in Seattle as being part of Bruce's "we only care about the playoffs" strategy but the truth may be that the decision was driven by Keane's refusal to play on turf. (I don't remember the details behind that decision though so I may be wrong about that.)

I tell you what Bruce has had for the playoffs that a lot of other teams don't - big time players who can step up their games when it counts. Landon Donovan was the best of these in MLS history and he personally played a gigantic role in many of Arena's greatest moments - WC 2002 and all of LAG MLS cup wins. More recently its been even better with Landon and Keane, both guys who can take it to another level in the playoffs. In DC he had Moreno, Etcheverry, Harkes, Raul Diaz Arce, and an amazing backline of Pope, Agoos, and Sanneh protected by Richie Williams and stopped by Lagerway. That was an MLS team that was made up almost entirely of international starters and not surprisingly they had what it took to win when it counted.

Obviously Bruce is brilliant in how he assembles these teams and how he builds a winning culture and gets maximum effort from his players. He deserves all the credit in the world for this. But without these incredibly talented "difference makers" to carry his successful teams through the playoffs I don't think the "slow start" seasons (including the US Open and CCL bomb outs) would be seen as a brilliant strategy. They would just be seen for what they are - unintended slow starts and poor play that gets corrected along the way.

This season with our possible shortage of firepower (depending on Keano's health and Gerrard's form) we may get to find out.

 

I think the argument is that early season Bruce always tends to experiment with odd formations and players in weird positions. This to me tells me that he doesn't care as much about winning games early in the season.

 

I absolutely agree with the second point and go back on forth on the first. We do seem to do some things odd in the preseason, for example, I think we schedule easier friendlies than other MLS teams that participate in MLS preseason tournaments. Might be good for building cohesion in the long run but maybe not so good at getting a quick start. The other thing is that we are dependent on our DPs and so are sensitive to their getting off to a slow start. Beckham and Donovan playing overseas, Donovan in Cambodia, injuries to Keane, Gerrard not coming until the summer.

 

Point taken. I’d argue other than LA, Seattle is the only team that could effectively execute that strategy on a consistent basis though. The Colorados and RSLs of the world who peak in the playoffs are more lucky than good. Of course maybe it’s having arguably the best attacking duo in MLS history for 4 seasons; I guess we’ll see how much of Bruce’s “peak in the playoffs” was really just “Landon & Robbie are bonkers”

 

NYRB look pretty damn good to me this season

 

They’ve looked good, and then they’ve looked average. Seems to be the story for the first third of this season. About half the teams seem generally good, but can be undone by below average teams. While the other half seem poor, but can go out and thump one of those good teams often starting a mini slump. RB are in the former category and in a bit of a slump.

For the record I think LA is in that latter group. Not very good right now, but taken some points off of very good teams.

 

You realize you just made watching the next few Galaxy games 200% more frustrating and galling, right?

 

I know Gerard to coming to us, and Lampard is going slumming in the Bronx, but are there other clubs who have name players that are going to be added to their rosters? I ask because I have a general impression that the rest of the league has pretty much shot their wad as regards likely impact players, but I really don't keep tabs on the other clubs as closely as some of you, and my impression could be wrong.

 

Yeah, I think the "LA peaks late" meme is a little overstated. We didn't peak late in 2011 -- we were pretty consistent throughout the season, but got even better after ditching JAP and nabbing Keane before the playoffs.

In 2012, we lost one of the best defenders in MLS during the off-season and (surprise) got better once he returned in the summer.

In 2013...we actually started out pretty good, despite Landon being on sabbatical and having lost DB23. LD came back in excellent form, especially after the GC and (surprise) the team looked really good. Interestingly, the team seemed to lose steam right before the playoffs.

 

Nope that's the way I see it too. 2015 looks like it'll be a holding pattern for the league as a whole. Orlando has a spot, NYRB have two, but seem reluctant to go the splashy DP route. Every other team that could either have three DPs or have committed to a third.