2014 Point Tracker

Discussion in 'Real Salt Lake' started by BalanceUT, Mar 16, 2014.

  1. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    "Projected Finishes of 2014 Regular Season, base on the Most Recent Meetings", through the games on 2014-08-31:

    RSL projected to finish 3rd in the West, 5th Overall with 54 points, just 3 short of the Club Record (57, set in 2012).

     
  2. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Official Website on the SoS, Projected Points & Odds for 2014 Supporters' Shield:
    "Commentary: Handicapping the Supporters' Shield race with two months to go"
    http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/artic...icapping-supporters-shield-race-two-months-go

    Edited/formatted/sorted with improved readability, for your reading pleasure please... :)

     
  3. TheBiff

    TheBiff Member+

    Apr 8, 2011
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    Ecuador
    To sum up that article: We don't control our destiny.
    To win the SS we would need a lot of other results to go our way so best to not even worry about it.
     
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  4. Ivensor

    Ivensor Member

    Nov 10, 2011
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    I think if anything the article is generous to RSL. Sportsclubstats.com is giving RSL only a 2.5% chance of winning the SS. Their projections are that to win the SS a team is going to need about 63-64 points. For RSL to get there, we need to win 7 of our last 8 games, or win 6 and draw 2. Realistically, that's not going to happen.

    But, we can still hope for Seattle or LA to crater, allowing us to take 2nd in the west.
     
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  5. Taragui

    Taragui Member+

    Aug 13, 2006
    Northern Utah
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Does it really matter if it's 2nd or 3rd? Has the playoff format changed? If not, you just don't want to end up 4th and end up playing an extra round of playoff games.
     
  6. Ivensor

    Ivensor Member

    Nov 10, 2011
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    It doesn't matter much. The better you do in the regular season the better your chance at having home field advantage in the playoffs. With the home-and-home series you can argue it either way, so I don't think home field advantage plays a big role there. But, should we get to MLS Cup we could host it if the Eastern team has fewer points than us.

    The big thing is to avoid 4th/5th.

    And, it would just be fun to watch Seattle and/or LA implode.
     
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  7. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Another equally interesting article on the Top-6 for 2014, written on Aug-19 (about 2 weeks ago):


    The writer foreseen LAG would feature among the Top-6, even though they were just a point ahead of Vancouver after the heavy 1-4 loss to CLB on Aug-16, and fell as far as 8 points behind SKC back then. :thumbsup:
    [​IMG]
    2 Predictions were crafted, for the Likely Winners of 2014 Supporters' Shield:
    (Again, edited/formatted/sorted for readability, for your reading pleasure...)

    [​IMG]
     
  8. BalanceUT

    BalanceUT RSL and THFC!

    Oct 8, 2006
    Appalachia
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What can anyone say about Sabo's storybook return? He was even marked, but made room and nodded it home. Wonderful confidence builder for the whole team. Overall, a tough game because Dallas is very dangerous. We controlled the tempo for most of the game, but with Dallas that is often not enough. Proud of the boys for keeping in the game and making solid plays all over the field. Jamie looks good in his stint. Sabo showed him the expectation. This could be the start of a great finish to the season.

    Graphically, RSL is hanging solidly in the middle of the Good Years. At this point, this is another Good Year season. Well done, Cassar. Well done, boys.
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Definitely a [​IMG] ... ;)
     
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  10. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    "Projected Finishes of 2014 Regular Season, base on the Most Recent Meetings", through the games on 2014-09-07:

    RSL are now projected to finish 3rd in the West & for the Shield in 2014, completing the 1-2-3 dominance of the West over the Eastern Conference. :thumbsup:

     
  11. BalanceUT

    BalanceUT RSL and THFC!

    Oct 8, 2006
    Appalachia
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Folks here reasonably hate talk of 'moral victories', yadda yadda. But, this was not a bad game by RSL by any means. This was a good game by both teams and Seattle came out on top. A draw probably would have been the right outcome in my view. I felt Sabo didn't provide enough pressure on Seattle defenders as they handled the ball late in the game. It might have reduced Seattle's ability to find good starting points for attack. Be that as it may, one moment where three defenders take each other out and the ball falls to Rose's feet, game over. <sigh>

    Graphically, holding on to RSL being in a "Good Season".

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Projection of RSL's remaining games by Most Recent Meetings in 2014, 2013 or even 2012 (for opponents from Eastern Conference):

    http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/team/team.php?teamId=888
    That would be a run of 3W-2L-1T for the last 6 games (10 points),
    adding on top of the current 12W-6L-10T through Sep-14 (46 points),
    for an eventual regular season record of 15W-8L-11T (56 points) in 2014.

    Actually, I really doubt if RSL will lose any of the 2 games highlighted in red above, as projected:
     
  13. elkaholic

    elkaholic Member+

    May 28, 2009
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hmmm, hate to be overly optimistic here, but I see all 6 of those games as very win-able. By the time RSL plays Portland, they will most likely know their fate. I am thinking they are going to go all or nothing for the CCL games and sacrifice MLS games. However, I've been wrong before....once or twice.
     
  14. UPinSLC

    UPinSLC Member+

    Jul 11, 2004
    SL,UT
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I actually find that model fits this team, at least historically, to a T. 56 total points would put us nearly exactly at our mean for the last 5 years, which makes sense given how the team is built. I think with our remaining schedule this is the most likely way it plays out:

    Col: W
    @Van: L
    @CHV: W
    SJ: W
    @Por: T
    CHV: W

    4-1-1 for a total 59 points. I could also see us dropping one of those wins into a tie very easily and finishing 3-2-1 for 56 points, most likely the @CHV or home to SJ games.
     
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  15. 15 to 32

    15 to 32 Straw Hog

    Jul 1, 2008
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    if we don't take 6 points off Chivas you can kiss any glimmer of hope for MLS Cup goodbye. You don't lose those kind of games this time of year
     
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  16. BalanceUT

    BalanceUT RSL and THFC!

    Oct 8, 2006
    Appalachia
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    RSL started slowly, seemed a bit out of sync, possibly with the new guy, but I think it was because Colorado was pressing the living crap out of RSL. Very high pressure that we were not handling well, holding the ball too long, getting it stripped. Colorado's goal woke us up and it took only a few minutes to see the team has moved up a gear or two. Nasco helped, no doubt about it. But, we were making quality passes and shots, too. Well done, boys! Well earned!

    Graphically, this is, without doubt, a Good Season. The question now is do we finish in such a way that it becomes a season to remember beyond it simply being Cassar's first?

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    8 more points to most points in a season!! :thumbsup:
     
  18. BalanceUT

    BalanceUT RSL and THFC!

    Oct 8, 2006
    Appalachia
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Felt like a game we should have won. We weren't even that bad nor were Vancouver that good. It was a lot of meh soccer. A draw really felt like the right outcome to me. So much for running the table with the easiest close to the season.

    Graphically, yadda yadda.

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    8 more points to the most points in a season is still very much do-able, just win the next 2 home games and minimally tie the other 2 on the road (in fact, a win over Chivas at L.A. should be expected). ;)
     
  20. ShaggyReAL

    ShaggyReAL Awesome is my middle name

    Dec 9, 2009
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    RSL was that bad and hopefully we never have to play in Vancouver again this year. On to the next one...
     
  21. Taragui

    Taragui Member+

    Aug 13, 2006
    Northern Utah
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Wish we could say that they never had to play on that green cement they call a pitch ever again...
     
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  22. BalanceUT

    BalanceUT RSL and THFC!

    Oct 8, 2006
    Appalachia
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The new graph is an excellent representation of the Chivas game. Beautiful in the link-up passing play, but goofy in that all the passing was in vain. And, actually, kinda smelled bad, no matter how beautiful.
    [​IMG]

    Oh, a REAL graph? OK, here: We are now on track to have the worst 'good season'. I'm calling it now: An inability to beat Chivas, or even get draws, suggests we will go nowhere in the playoffs. That was horrible.
    [​IMG]
     
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  23. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Argh shoot, now RSL need to go perfect in the last 3 games to beat it... :(

    Just beat it, beat it, beat it... :p
     
  24. TheBiff

    TheBiff Member+

    Apr 8, 2011
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    Ecuador
    That 2010 season keeps looking more and more incredible to me.
    Just a couple more goals and it could've been perfect. That seems to be the big problem with RSL
     
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  25. BalanceUT

    BalanceUT RSL and THFC!

    Oct 8, 2006
    Appalachia
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wow... what a boring second half of soccer. It was shear agony to watch. With the sound on a loop, not actually of Rio Tinto, no audio from the field to know when the whistle blew, just crap.

    But, RSL played a solid game both in creating the goals for the win and in preserving the lead. Preserving a lead is often boring, so there's that.

    Below is the graph. I've ghosted in as if we win the last two matches. Lest you think I'm jinxing RSL's chances, I am jinxing nothing. RSL plays Chivas in the final game of the season, and that is not going to be a win, no way, no how. So, what you see there is the lost opportunity, what could have been, if only we knew how to beat the team that everyone else knows how to beat.

    Enjoy!

    [​IMG]
     
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